SA News • Yesterday, 3:44 PM
Does The ECB Finally Get It? What This Means For Deutsche Bank
- The ECB is finally serious about QE.
- Low inflation expectations have hurt European banks.
- Deutsche Bank has a low price/book ratio, and will benefit from looser credit conditions.
- German bank market dominated by Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, both at all time lows.
- European Central Bank about to start asset-backed security purchases.
- German banks about to have their bad debt bought off them.
- Could this be the start of the share price recovery for Deutschebank and Commerzbank?
Deutsche Bank Is A Good Buy If You Believe In Europe
- Deutsche Bank's massive footprint has made managing the bank tough since the Crisis.
- The bank is highly leveraged to capital markets especially in the fixed income arena.
- If Europe starts to recover more strongly the bank could have outstanding upside, if Europe does not recover, downside is limited at current prices.
How Would The ETF Market Price War Impact Deutsche Bank?Stock Gazer • Sep. 22, 2014
- Companies like BlackRock and Vanguard will benefit from the current price wars, but it will not prove to be beneficial for Deutsche Bank.
- Due to the impressive figures being recorded by the ETF over the last many quarters, it is expected that it will grow at a tremendous rate in the coming years.
- However, under the given circumstances, it is predicted that exchange traded fund assets for Deutsche Bank will experience a sluggish growth in the next few years.
Buy Deutsche Bank On Cheap Valuation And ECB Action
- Action from the ECB will benefit Deutsche Bank.
- Deutsche Bank trades at a cheap forward P/E of 7.97.
- Deutsche Bank could appreciate around 23% from current levels.
Avoid Deutsche Bank On Risk Of Financials Being Misstated
- Deutsche Bank's internal controls and regulatory reporting were found deficient by the NY Fed.
- DB has violated the trust of its regulator and thus, investors should be very wary of its financial reporting.
- We'll discuss implications for shareholders.
- DB is experiencing a secular decline in sales revenue.
- Statistics assume that this is a decent opportunity for the long term.
- Earnings/cash flows are highly volatile, thus forward multiple appears to be unreliable.
- The long-term technical situation is becoming highly favorable.
Former Deutsche Bank Trader Fined $17 Million, Scandal Continues
- The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority recently fined Deutsche Bank trader Christian Bittar $17 million for trying to rig the benchmark interest rate.
- This is the latest in a series of public incidents involving Deutsche Bank, along with very poor Q1 results and market declining performance YTD.
- While some suggest Deutsche Bank is at a turnaround point, we are not yet convinced DB is a buy in 2014.
- Deutsche Bank is one of the world's leading global banks and the German market leader.
- The bank's default probabilities are high relative to peers, and it would take a 33% stock price rise to bring default risk to peer levels.
- Ranked by the credit spread to default probability measure, the bank's bonds trade in the top 45% of the value ranking. Good, but not great.
Avoid Deutsche Bank On Poor Earnings And Regional Instability
- Review of Deutsche Bank's earnings and the impact of regional geopolitical events.
- Major Russian banking and gas stocks have been hit due to recent regional events.
- A wait-and-see approach over the summer is the best approach on Deutsche Bank.
Yesterday, 3:44 PM
- “The investment bank is stagnating while the company’s other units are growing,” says an analyst with Bankhaus Metzler who rates the stock a Sell. “Scaling back the investment bank is an option, but you have to ask how they’re going to replace that earnings power.”
- As recently as Q3 of last year, the unit accounted for the largest share of Deutsche Bank's (DB -2.5%) earnings, but it's set to generate the least profit of any of the lender's four units in Q4. While Co-CEO Anshu Jain pledged to build the investment bank, he and his co-chief Juergen Fitschen may have no choice but to scale back even further when Deutsche updates on its strategic plan in Q2.
- There's plenty of upside if they get it right: Deutsche trades for just 0.6x tangible book value, the lowest of the top nine global investment banks.
- 'Investors have a lot of trouble believing that Deutsche Bank’s balance sheet is really going to be worth what they say it is,” says another analyst. “Even if fixed-income markets were to rebound, they’d still be short on capital and unable to reap the benefits.”
Fri, Jan. 16, 9:46 AM
Tue, Jan. 13, 8:03 AM
- When Deutsche (NYSE:DB) unveils this spring the results of its continuing strategy review - dubbed 2015+ - the report could include the sale of its Postbank retail unit, reports the WSJ.
- The presentation of the plan on an as-yet unidentified date in Q2 will mark a major step for co-CEOs Anshu Jain and Jurgen Fitschen who took over in 2012 with a mandate to accelerate the bank's turnaround.
- Deustche begain buying Postbank from Deutsche Post in 2008, so its sale would be a big shift for the bank which figured the purchase would boost a thin retail-banking network. One key issue: Germany's banking regulator - BaFin - has so far not allowed Deutsche Bank to tap into Postbank profits or fully use all of its deposits.
Mon, Jan. 12, 2:38 AM
- Nasdaq OMX (NASDAQ:NDAQ) has approached several big banks with a proposal to take over their dark pools, and plans to seek regulatory permission to do so, WSJ reports.
- Despite coming under increased scrutiny, dark pools have seen a jump in trading volume as brokers seek to avoid high fees on traditional exchanges.
- Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld says the new initiative is in response to the needs of the company’s customers and not a strategic change.
- Three largest dark pool operators in the U.S.: UBS (NYSE:OUBS), Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) and Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB).
Dec. 11, 2014, 6:50 AM
- The New York's Department of Financial Services is investigating Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) and Barclays (NYSE:BCS) over algorithms they used on their trading platforms which may have manipulated foreign exchange rates.
- Ben Lawsky has ordered a monitor to be installed at Deutsche Bank and already has one in place at Barclays.
- The two banks were not included in the $3.4B forex settlement in November, leaving some to speculate that Lawsky wished to go after the banks later and demand larger penalties.
- Previously: New York bank regulator reportedly opens currency trading probe (Feb. 05 2014)
Dec. 8, 2014, 3:36 PM
Dec. 8, 2014, 10:28 AM
- A combination of new regulations and near-zero interest rates has some banks - including JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup (NYSE:C), HSBC, Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB), and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) - privately telling larger clients to take their deposits elsewhere or face fees on accounts which have long been free.
- “Ultimately my balances aren’t as profitable for the banks, and that’s going to impact my business,” says an executive with a title insurance company, complaining of sleepless nights amid negotiations with his bankers.
- BNY Mellon (NYSE:BK) has begun charging institutional clients money to park money in euros, and State Street (NYSE:STT) says itwill soon begin doing so.
- Some bankers are advising large clients to break up large deposits across a number of lenders (including smaller banks not subject to the new regulations), and other corporations are going to find themselves needing to build more sophisticated (and riskier) portfolios likely including vehicles like short-term bond funds and uninsured money-market funds.
Dec. 5, 2014, 3:35 AM
- "Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) is probably the last truly global institution in Europe," supervisory board chairman Paul Achleitner says, "which makes the intensity of what we have to work off a little larger than many of our competitors."
- DB's aim is "to be respected again, everywhere."
- Shares +1.8% on Euronext.
- Source: Bilanz
Nov. 17, 2014, 12:17 PM
- The market for trading swaps protecting against the default of individual companies was once a vast and highly profitable one for banks, but is far less so today, weighed down by new regulatory scrutiny both here and in Europe.
- “Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) is redeploying resources and capital into credit cash trading,” says a spokeswoman.
Nov. 12, 2014, 2:49 PM
- Deutshce Bank (NYSE:DB) is near a sale of most of a $2B portfolio of U.S. commercial real estate loans to TPG, reports the WSJ, with the upswing in the property sector making it possible for the bank to post a profit on the sale.
- Assets to be sold include mortgages on shopping malls and office buildings originated by Deutsche, along with outstanding paper that the bank purchased on the market. The sale comes as Deutsche - like other large banks - looks to shed assets amid increasingly tough capital rules.
Oct. 31, 2014, 10:38 AM
- Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS +4.8%) is the latest to do so, today announcing the setting aside of $640M for potential settlements in the currency-rigging investigations.
- In total, seven major U.S. and European banks have boosted their legal reserves by $6.5B in October. Last night, Citigroup (C +0.4%) was forced to cut its Q3 earnings by $600M amid "rapidly-evolving" probes.
- UBS has put aside the most of any single bank this month - $1.9B. Next in line is Deutsche Bank (DB +0.7%) with $1.1B, and JPMorgan (JPM +1.3%) with $1B. None of the lenders disclosed exactly how much was specifically for foreign exchange, and none have yet been formally accused of wrongdoing.
- Barclays (BCS +5.6%) reserved $800M for FX-related settlements, and Credit Suisse (CS +0.5%) $400M.
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, IAI, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, FINU, RWW, RYF, FINZ
Oct. 29, 2014, 6:22 AM
Oct. 29, 2014, 3:57 AM
- Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) swung to a net loss in the third quarter, as heavy legal fees outweighed a rise in investment banking.
- Germany’s top lender reported a net loss of €92M ($117M), on net revenues of €7.9B.
- Spending €894M on litigation costs during the quarter, Deutsche Bank has now spent around €7B on fines and settlements since 2012.
Oct. 28, 2014, 1:50 PM
- Deutsche Bank (DB +2.7%) is replacing CFO Stefan Krause with Goldman partner Marcus Schenk, the WSJ and Bloomberg report.
- Krause has been Deutsche's CFO since 2008. Schenk was the CFO of German utility E.ON before joining Goldman last year.
- The reported shakeup comes after U.K. regulators and the N.Y. Fed took aim at Deutsche's financial reporting.
Oct. 27, 2014, 12:52 PM
- “Judging from the market reaction today, investors don’t completely believe in the ECB," says Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank. "They are more pessimistic on the banks."
- Financial firms were among the worst performers today following the release of ECB stress tests over the weekend, falling 0.9% vs. the Stoxx Europe 600's decline of 0.6%. Hardest hit were the Italian lenders after that country's banks made up a disproportionate share of those who failed the exams. Not failing, but nevertheless hit: Unicredit (OTCPK:UNCFF, OTC:UNCFY) -2.6%, Intesa Sanpaolo (OTCPK:IITOF, OTCPK:IITSF, OTCPK:ISNPY) -3.1%. Italy's FTSE MIB index (NYSEARCA:EWI) led European declines, falling 2.3%.
- Also taking a hit despite no issues from the stress tests were Europe's larger banking powers: Santander (SAN -3%), Deutsche Bank (DB -1.6%), ING (ING -1.8%), BBVA (BBVA -2.3%).
- EUFN -1.4%
- Previously: ECB stress test failures centered among Italian banks
Oct. 24, 2014, 2:44 AM
- Thirty-one banks are set to participate in the Fed's 2015 stress tests, which will see how they can withstand pressures such as a spike in oil prices, a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate or an increase in risky corporate loans. The capital plans are due in January.
- Among the bank's that failed last year's tests are Citigroup (NYSE:C), and the U.S. units of HSBC (NYSE:HSBC), Santander (NYSE:SAN) and RBS (NYSE:RBS).
- Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) will participate for the first time, and has already felt pressure from the NY Fed, which has told it in a private letter that its regulatory reports were "low quality, inaccurate and unreliable".
- This Sunday, the ECB will release results for stress tests of 130 eurozone banks amid a deteriorating economic outlook for the region.
DB vs. ETF Alternatives
Other News & PR