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- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
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- Managing Duration for Commodity Funds: Which Strategy Is Best? [view article]
- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Thursday Market: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Chinese Aluminum Woes [view article]
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Metalline Mining's Silver Lining [view article]
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- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
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- Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (7/23/08)
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Managing Duration for Commodity Funds: Which Strategy Is Best?
- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Thursday Market: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Chinese Aluminum Woes
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- ETF Update: Gold, Financials, Aluminum
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Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Anyone who shorts POT need to see a psychologist. Today is a great buying opportunity for POT 1-09 calls. ReplyThursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
David WhiteCramer attributes the lack of buying interest in POT after the earning report as due to the perception by hedge fund managers that an end to the ethanol mandate is likely and that would invalidate the projections of future earnings. Your POT forward PE estimates would be too optimistic under their scenario.
On a percentage basis over the past month, money has flowed most out of oil & gas and basic materials, and into health care and financials. (online.wsj.com/mdc/pub...) While the fundamentals for potash and agriculture appear sound for the long term, the short term demand for POT shares could decline more before sentiment turns back in favor of basic materials.
Reply
again
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
David White writes:FNM and FRE own over half of the mortgages. We cannot afford for them to go under. Certainly some of the banks reported bad earnings. But even those seemed to forcast improvement in the near future (for example Wachovia).
So I have several questions for you:
Why can't we let them go under? We let real industries go under all the time and they create real wealth unlike fred/fani. Isn't letting bad companies fail the idea of free markets? Or are we now the new soviet union? And if they are too big to fail how is making them bigger good for the tax payers?
Also on bank's earnings: Why would you trust the banks forecast from the same banks that not long ago said all was well we need no new capital?
Reply
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Damn,Dave...take achill pill.. ReplyThursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Brian in Montreal: Actually I think the whole oil situation is being handled particularly badly by the US. Much of the US trade deficit is now due to oil. The US needs to produce more and use less. It hasn't made appreciable inroads in either of these areas.I am not at all sure Obama will be elected. McCain is clearly the most experienced in foreign affairs (and with the military). Obama may understand minority US citizen point of view better than McCain. However, I am not at all sure that will translate into a better understanding of terrorists, especially Middle Eastern ones. The US seems to slowly be turning the housing crisis around. It seems to be saving the banks (and its citizens) from disaster. It still needs badly to address its oil crisis. It uses too much, and it produces too little. Both of these things have to change as quickly as possible. Reply
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
If the price increase announced by Canpotex doesn't really effect prices until Sept. 1, much of the increase will be in Q4. This may mean the increase is a greater than 50% increase per quarter (if mostly due to price). $2.50 in FY EPS spread over only 4 months amounts to about $.60 per month. This might mean +$1.80 for the Q4 estimate (and further quarter estimates). ReplyThursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
The FPE (2009 earnings) for POT was 9.72. If you multiply in this 50% profit increase for 2H 2008 to 2009 earnings. Those earnings will be approx. $20 * 1.5 = $30. At $30 EPS for 2009, the current FPE (2009 earnings) would be $204/$30 = 6.8. This may not work exactly like this, but it should still be great. It might even be better. ReplyMontreal
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Opps, Wall Street got a hangover, sorry (I even proof read it, to fast). ReplyMontreal
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Dave, Apparently Wall Street got (according to Bush, what an expert) and they are now hungover.So why is the FED still pouring on the Booze !?!?!
Bush and the oil boys must just love this party so much they don't want it to end.
I guess the Democrats get to turn out the lights. I bet that's not going to be pretty ?!?!?! Reply
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Perhaps this is another stock manipulation trick. If Scotia et al can get everyone to sell now, they can buy the stock up cheap while the analysts up their ratings. Some people were no doubt just betting on the earnings pop. Still stocks rise for weeks after good news like this. ReplyThursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
In my book any analyst who thinks an increase in company FY guidance (with only 2 Q's remaining) of 25+% on the year deserves a cut in its rating from outperform to sector perform is crazy. That figure amounts to approx. a 50% overall increase in the projected second half earnings just from this point onward (ignoring how much better it is than last year). The actions of some of these analysts boggles my mind. I can understand why my sister (an executive at a DJIA company) has such a low opinion of analysts. ReplyThursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Of course, Scotia then cut POT to sector perform. Maybe they only read the earnings news. It was a beat, but not overly impressive for POT. The guidance is very impressive though. Add to this the news last week that POT will increase potash capacity by 2.7M tons a year by 2012, then you have quite a good looking scenario. I think the Scotia analyst is nuts. Of course, POT is in a great sector. TRA apparently did very well. ReplyThursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Since POT raised its full year guidance by 25%+ today, we should be able to expect a 25%+ pop in the stock price over the next few weeks. I think the Canpotex price increase has not been reflected in the stock price yet. Now the guidance is out. It is rosy. It is historically conservative. The projected 25% increase in profits should be reflected in the stock price as the "slower anlaysts" raise their POT 1 year target price, revenue and earnings estimates. An early analyst raised his/her target to $425. I am estimating that the stock price will increase over the next few weeks to $250-$260. It may go higher. Still it has the rest of the year to reach whatever its new, higher target will be. It should be a good short term play (as well as long term) as long as the markets hold up. The grain prices generally seem to be stabilizing. ReplyThursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Further Morgan Stanley raised its view on European banks today to in-line. Things are looking up! ReplyThursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Ditto SYT. Reply