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- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Global Liquidity Crisis: What Now? [view article]
- ETF Update: Check Out Chile, Short ETFs, Next Gen ETFs, 401(k) News, Which ETFs Will RIP?, New Vanguard, PowerShares Offerings [view article]
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets, More [view article]
- Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (9/22/08) [view article]
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Recent DBB Articles
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (10/13/08)
- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Global Liquidity Crisis: What Now?
- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets, More
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Full List of Articles »
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Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Those are some great charts (and comments)!My brain hurts right now, but those are some great charts! Reply
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
this is getting ridiculous, and I thought I was a perma-bear. I'm going to buy something today. ReplyLogic
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
"Technical analysis at these levels is not as helpful as one would like as markets are blowing through support levels quicker than we can identify them."Lee Adler, who runs Captialstool.com, has a saying: "There's no such thing as support in a bear market." Reply
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
"The markets are as oversold as they can get" - Most crashes are preceded by oversold conditions. But when we get the reversal today or Monday it will be the trading opportunity of a lifetime (unless it's different this time) ReplyFriday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
In an up-market, mark-to-market spirals up the market. But, in a down market, when combined with margin calls, it becomes a death spiral. All collateralized debt instruments will be devalued, called, devalued, called … till it is worthless and bellied up. Regardless of how we got into the mess we are in now, it is this twins that will do us in. If we do not repeal mark-to-market immediately, we ain’t seen anything yet. Where are we now in Dante’s Inferno? ReplyTuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Two comments today.One is just about all of my short ETFs are gone. I put very high limits on them, most above any previous rocket high, and almost all have been taken out. Its like watching a rocket punch up and hand you some money.. So I am now waiting for the next dead cat bounce or sucker rally or whatever it will be to load up on Ultra short ETFs.
Two, are we going to see deflation or inflation. After reading some history from 1929 to 1933, after the banks seized up, prices of just about everything went down... Not hard to imagine if no one is buying. Seems like that mentality is starting to take hold now. I am not sure what gold will do if there is deflation now. Back in the 1930's currencies were rolling off the gold standard and then Uncle Bucky seized all the gold in the USA so we cannot look to that as a lesson. I certainly agree with the billions soon to be trillions pumping out the Fed window, there has to be a dilution of the buck and many argue for inflation. Right now, my instinct tells me that deflation is just around the corner.. and capitalism does not work well in deflation, nothing to feed the greed. This could be back to Hobbs natural state where life is "short, nasty and brutish". How long can you make a living shorting the market?
Reply
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
I am voting for Hoover! ReplyTuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
David, Thanks for sharing your work. Any chance you can track SLV and share some insights.TIA -wmh Reply
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
question: what tool do you use to create trend lines and mark your charts? ReplyTuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Some of you are not wearing your thinking caps. Truly the Fed is flooding the market with paper. That is why the dollar will tank not the opposite. The only reason it is seeing temporary strength is the mass exodus of commercial paper and repatriation by scared homies that still believe that the US is the wealthiest nation and that stocks always go up. The markets are experiencing their balancing act between fear and greed. The problem is that the WTO aka Trilateral Commission won't let it work against the big boys. It's do as we say, not as we do. FAX and FXA look to be great buys here. I might just buy more. ReplyTuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
If you want to think about what could make the nightmare worse, watch the relationship between the ETFs and their net asset value. For instance if you start to see the SPY trade consistantly below its NAV (SXV), you will know disaster is coming.I sold all my SPY, MDY and QQQQ yesterday and replaced them with an equal dollar amount to approximate the same S&P industry weightings.
Sounds crazy? My brokers are telling me that customers are afraid of
FDIC insured bank deposit sweeps and are buying Treasury Bills at a much lower yield. Reply
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
there wont be capitulation for all those waiting for one - the fed and the treasury can literally inject 100 billion into seven banks if it like right now or 1 billion to 700 banks and can get more money if they want - this isnt the 1930's where they have to find more gold to back their dollars it is fiat currency and can literally be printed out of thin air (there is an unlimited supply ) - all the CB's around the world will be forced to do the same so- the dollar wont crash - In the last 2 weeks alone (before the new 900 billion auction and the bailout) has been printing at 200% increase - the assets or credit derivatives will be so diluted by the amount of dollars flowing they will just an a small expense rather than an insurmountable problem that you see today - this crises will be drowned in a dollar or whatever currency your central bank happen to print -with maybe the exception being iceland ReplyTuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
royial: Not to be facetious, but, Duuhh! ;-)Wonder if I'll pick the right reentry point for EEV, EFU, SDS, QID, SRS, SKF. Sold today in anticipation of typical big dip - follow up rally. Looking forward to recouping some losses between now and election day. Reply
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Royial, yes, that is exactly what Dave means, and he is not the only one who holds that opinion.But, seems like to me, Dave has capitulated. He thinks the world has ended. Even an upturn is not gonna be a real upturn.
Hm.... and he is not the only one.
Reply
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Hi,First of all - thanks for your great article and graphs.
I have a question regarding the section "Who was buying? That squeeze may have been the opening act of your tax dollars at work. Nothing would surprise me and generating short squeezes has been the government’s primary objective. Reverse Repos from the Fed have been running around $25 billion per day as the Fed “drains” reserves from the system.".
What do you mean by this? that someone involved in the market and buy stocks at the last hour to prevent another black monday day?
Thanks. Reply