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Fri, Aug. 1, 9:36 AM| Comment!
Thu, Jul. 24, 12:41 PM
- The current 8.6% payout for the DoubleLine Opportunistic Credit Fund (DBL -0.3%) is at risk, says Wells Fargo's Daniel Brown, who issued an "avoid" recommendation about a month ago (made publicly available today).
- The distribution coverage ratio of just 73% for the six months ending in March means the fund has to either boost leverage or cut the payout, says Brown. Should leverage be increased, the portfolio - nearly half of which is invested in below-investment grade or unrated paper - could no longer be considered conservative, according to Brown.
- DBL trades close to NAV, notes Brown, which suggests the market likely isn't pricing in any change to the distribution.
Mon, Jun. 2, 9:25 AM| Comment!
Thu, May. 1, 9:04 AM| Comment!
Tue, Apr. 1, 9:04 AM| Comment!
Thu, Jan. 2, 11:27 AM| Comment!
Dec. 10, 2013, 5:33 PM
- Rising interest rates have killed refinancing - eliminating prepayment risk - and home prices continue to move higher, a particularly bullish cocktail for non-agency MBS, says Gundlach (DBL, DSL), who finds those securities vastly more attractive than high-yield paper (HYG, JNK).
- Asked about Annaly (NLY) - an owner of agency MBS - Gundlach says he likes it and likes its management, but won't be buyer until after the dividend is cut to something more in line with what core earnings might be.
- "Something for Nothing" slides and webcast
- Non-agency MBS players include: MTGE, MFA, DX, TWO
- Related mREIT ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL
- High-yield ETFs: HYG, JNK, HYS, HYLD, SJNK, PHB, SJB, ANGL, XOVR, UJB, QLTC, SHYG
- Previous: "Freaking out" about interest rate risk
Nov. 1, 2013, 8:50 AM| Comment!
Oct. 17, 2013, 12:17 PM
- I see no reason for long-term rates to head higher, says Jeff Gundlach, appearing on CNBC. He doesn't see the taper coming soon - incomes are falling, the labor force participation rate is stuck, and inflation is non-existent. Further, why would Janet Yellen take the Fed helm and immediately begin to reverse a policy she's so supportive of?
- Without the taper, he notes, QE is actually expanding on a relative basis thanks to a smaller budget deficit and less Treasury issuance needing to be mopped up by the central bank.
- The best opportunity in fixed income continues to be closed-end funds trading at discounts to net asset value (his DBL being one of them). You can put together a basket of these, he says, yielding 8-9% and with a discount to NAV of 10%. Others possibilities (though we haven't checked their prices vs. NAV): PDI, PTY, PCI, PHK, PKO, PCN, PCI, PFN, PFL.
- Treasurys continue their big rally, the yield on the 10-year now all the way down to 2.60%. TLT +0.8%, TBT -1.6%.
- Turning to stocks: I don't like $300B market cap companies trading at 20x forward earnings, he says, suggesting GOOG be "harvested" for gains.
- On TSLA: There's something wrong with this picture, he says, noting the company's $23B valuation while GM and Ford are hitting new highs. These massive Tesla sales being priced into the stock have to come from somewhere.
Sep. 10, 2013, 4:35 PM
- "What If?" is the title of Jeff Gundlach's (DBL, DSL) latest webcast presentation.
- Reviewing his boner of a call that Treasury rates had topped out about 70 basis points ago, Gundlach says he never thought the Fed would walk away from QE. Instead the Fed has chosen to do just that in favor of what Gundlach calls a "seat of the pants policy" that he feels is a big mistake.
- The total return loss in bonds during this selloff is nearly identical 1993/94 carnage, he notes. While not expecting a fast rally in bond prices, Gundlach does feel the selling is about done.
- Broad fixed-income ETFs: AGG, BND, LAG, SCHZ, BOND, SAGG, MINC.
- Treasury ETFs: TLH, TLT, IEF, DTYL, DLBL, ILTB, TENZ, ITE, TLO, EDV, VGIT, VGLT, TMF, TYD, LBND, UBT, UST, TMV, TYO, DSTJ, DSXJ, SBND, PST, TBT, DTYS, DLBS, TBF, TTT, TYNS, TYBS, TBX, TRSY, PLW, GOVT.
Sep. 3, 2013, 2:09 PM| Comment!
Aug. 29, 2013, 1:02 PM
- In a major about-face, Jeff Gundlach turns bullish on the mortgage REIT sector (REM +0.7%), telling CNBC he spots value as many are trading at 10% or more discounts to net asset value. He specifically mentions Annaly (NLY +1.3%) as being a buy. Reported book value as of June 30 is $13.03 vs. the current price of $11.50.
- Other popular names trading at big discounts (though not mentioned by Gundlach): AGNC, ARR, IVR, HTS, CYS, CMO, MTGE, DX, WMC, JMI, EARN, to name a few.
- Other mREIT ETFs: MORT, MORL.
- He's also a fan of closed-end income funds trading at wide discounts to NAV. None are mentioned, but PDI, PFN, and PFL come to mind. DoubleLine's own DBL is trading right about at NAV.
- Of Apple's (AAPL +0.6%) big run to $500? "All the easy money has been made ... It's kind of dead money."
Aug. 22, 2013, 7:33 AM
- "These outflows mark an enormous shift for the bond world," says TrimTabs, which gathered the data. "A vicious circle of losses and redemptions as the bond binge unwinds could get nasty ... Lulled into complacency by a 30-year bull market, many investors probably did not understand the risks ... Now they seem to be reacting very quickly to losses."
- The withdrawals this month are the 3rd highest on record - June 2013 and October 2008 are #1 and #2 - and the month isn't even over yet. Bond funds YTD have seen $4B in redemptions, putting them on pace for their worst year since 2004's $7B loss. This comes against $1.2T of inflows from 2009-2012.
- It's estimated Pimco saw $7.4B in redemptions in August as Bill Gross' giant Total Return Fund (ETF version: BOND) has lost 3.6% YTD. Some Pimco closed-end funds having a rough run (with a couple now trading at rare discounts to NAV): PHK, PTY, PDI.
- DoubleLine is estimated to have lost $631M, but Jeff Gundlach's Total Return Fund has fallen just 1.1% YTD - better than 86% of its rivals. The DBL now trades at a discount to NAV.
- Broad bond ETFs: AGG, BND, LAG, SCHZ, BOND, SAGG, MINC.
Aug. 6, 2013, 12:30 PM
- With equity guys greedy and fixed income fans fearful, maybe it's time to go the other way.
- Portfolio manager David Tepper (not that David Tepper), finds 10 closed-end bond funds who have negative YTD and Y/Y returns even as their net asset values have risen over the same periods: TAI, HIX, HHY, HIO, FTF, HAV, HIH, PIM, PPT, FMY.
- Several other closed-end funds run by high-profile names used to command hefty premiums, but now trade at discounts to net asset value. Among them are Jeff Gundlach's DBL and DSL and Pimco's PCI, PDI, PFN, and PFL.
Aug. 1, 2013, 12:54 PM| Comment!
Jun. 11, 2013, 3:28 PMHow frightened are bond investors (AGG, BND)? The Jeff Gundlach premium disappeared this morning - if only for a moment - from the Doubleline Opportunistic Credit Fund (DBL) when the share price fell below NAV. The closed-end fund had traded at a premium for what appears to be its entire existence and entered today's session at 5% above NAV. The same action was evident in the Doubleline Income Solutions Fund (DSL), though that vehicle is only 2 months old. | Comment!
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The Fund will seek to achieve its investment objective by investing in a portfolio of investments selected for their potential to provide high current income, growth of capital, or both. The Fund may invest in debt securities and income-producing investmen
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