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Thursday, May 10, 2012, 5:55 PM If Canada proceeds in exploiting its vast oil sands reserves, it's "game over for the climate," James Hansen writes. Canada’s tar sands contain twice the amount of CO2 emitted by global oil use in all of history, he says; full exploitation plus continuing use of conventional energy sources "would assure that the disintegration of the ice sheets would accelerate out of control... Civilization would be at risk." 25 Comments [Energy]
Thursday, May 10, 2012, 8:27 AM OPEC says it is pumping enough oil to satisfy world oil markets, and maintains oil prices have been high mostly due to political risk. OPEC production rose in April to 31.62M bbl/day as Iraq ramped up and Libya's oil industry recovered. The cartel predicts world oil demand to grow by 900K bbl/day in 2012, up slightly from its earlier 860K forecast. 1 Comment [Energy, Commodities, Global & FX]
Wednesday, May 9, 2012, 1:12 PM The U.S. is truly awash in a sea of crude, writes Bespoke, helpfully charting the widening gap between this year's inventories and past averages. Today's EIA report puts inventories higher for the 7th consecutive week, during which they've risen 33.2M barrels. Only in Spring 2001 have inventories ever risen at such a fast pace. 4 Comments [Commodities]
Wednesday, May 9, 2012, 10:56 AM High oil prices will spark not just another oil-induced recession, but a "permanent slowdown" in economic growth, Jeff Rubin predicts. New supply from shale and oil sands will be "an insignificant footnote... If the prices needed to get that oil out of the ground are triple-digit prices, it’s as if those resources don’t exist because the economy will not be able to afford to burn it." 7 Comments [Energy, U.S. Economy, Global & FX]
Wednesday, May 9, 2012, 10:13 AM Crude oil looks headed for a sixth straight losing session, as WTI -1.3% to $95.64/bbl and following other commodities lower. “A further flow of negative sentiment towards Europe, and specifically Spain, is seeing general markets turning lower once again as a flight... from risk is underway,” a Summit Energy analyst writes. Energy stocks (XLE -1.8%) again take a licking. 1 Comment [Energy, Commodities, On the Move]
Tuesday, May 8, 2012, 10:09 AM West Texas crude -1.4% to $96.56/bbl after Saudi Arabia's oil minister says crude prices are still too high. Saudi is storing as much as 80M barrels and has 2.5M bpd of spare capacity, Ali al-Naimi says; the kingdom is pumping 10M bpd, near the fastest rate in at least 31 years. Energy stocks (XLE -1.3%), a drag in recent sessions, are down again. 1 Comment [Energy, Commodities, On the Move]
Monday, May 7, 2012, 10:35 AM Benchmark crude oil prices could drop by another $7-$10/bbl in the next few weeks as "economic data out over the last week has further confirmed we likely have not seen the worst of the situation in Europe and the recovery in the U.S. is tepid at best," according to one commodities pro. But expectations that the weaker economic outlook may build the case for more stimulus could limit any move lower. 6 Comments [Energy, Commodities]
Friday, May 4, 2012, 12:24 PM The UAE completes and expects to have operational within 90 days a pipeline which will allow it to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for its oil exports. The pipeline offers a key alternative route in the face of Iranian threats to block the Strait. USO -4.4%. Comment! [Energy, Global & FX, Commodities]
Friday, May 4, 2012, 7:59 AM Crude oil continues its big late-week slide, -1.6% to $100.90/barrel. The price stood at $106.30 less than 72 hours ago. The steep decline coincides with a strong move higher in the greenback. Coincidence? Comment! [Commodities, On the Move, Global & FX]
Wednesday, May 2, 2012, 10:31 AM Byron Wien's short-term outlook aside, Bernstein examines upstream costs for 50 top oil producers and determines that "the era of cheap oil is over." Marginal costs for the 50 rose to $92/bbl in 2011, up 11% Y/Y, and could near $100/bbl this year - important, Bernstein says, because the cost of producing marginal barrels of oil plays a big role in determining oil prices. 1 Comment [Energy]
Wednesday, May 2, 2012, 10:19 AM Byron Wien has been making forecasts for 25 years, and he's predicting a Y/Y drop in oil prices for the first time ever as swelling production pushes global inventories higher. There’s a “lack of appreciation” of how much oil will be extracted from fracking of rock formations in the U.S., Wien says, also expecting the furor over a potential conflict with Iran to dissipate. 1 Comment [Energy]
Tuesday, May 1, 2012, 3:11 PM Better-than-expected expansion in U.S. manufacturing gets credit for today's energy rally, as Nymex crude rose 1.2% to settle at $106.16/barrel and natural gas jumped 3.8% to end at $2.37MM btu, both highest since late March. Upside earnings surprises from MPC, VLO and APC help make them leaders among energy-related issues. Comment! [Energy, U.S. Economy]
Monday, April 30, 2012, 11:29 AM Ed Yardeni thinks the rally in crude oil is running out of gas, and stable prices should reduce inflationary pressures around the world, "especially important in emerging economies since fuel costs account for larger shares of budgets than in developed economies. This would allow the central banks in China, India, and Brazil to continue to ease their monetary policies.” 2 Comments [Energy, Global & FX]
Monday, April 30, 2012, 10:35 AM Prospects dim that major oil consumers will drive down prices this summer by collectively making a large injection into the market from emergency oil stockpiles. "Hollande will withdraw support from the U.S.-British plan to release strategic oil stocks if he beats President Nicolas Sarkozy," which would essentially end the prospect of a coordinated plan, KBC Energy Economics predicts. Comment! [Energy, Global & FX]
Monday, April 30, 2012, 7:38 AM The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the U.S. falls to 613, the lowest level in 10 years as low prices force producers to cut back. Perhaps anticipating slowed production, gas prices last week pulled back from their free fall. The number of rigs drilling for oil was off a hair, but remains near a 25-year high. Comment! [Energy]
Friday, April 27, 2012, 12:11 PM It’s not quite time to jump into an oil fund, but once the time comes, a tracker of Europe’s benchmark Brent crude may be the better bet, Ned Davis Research says. Since the European benchmark’s losses have been steeper, the firm recommends the U.S. Brent Oil Fund (ETF: BNO) vs. popular trackers of U.S. WTI such as DBO, OIL and USO. 1 Comment [Energy, Quick Ideas]

DBO PowerShares DB Oil ETF

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PowerShares DB Oil ETF