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Tuesday, May 14, 4:50 AM Thanks to U.S. shale oil, demand for OPEC crude will remain largely unchanged over the next five years the IEA says in its semi-annual report. "Output growth from North America dominates the medium-term growth profile," the agency notes. By 2018, U.S. output should reach 11.9M barrels per day, 20% of the projected total of 59.3M barrels per day of non-OPEC supply. 3 Comments [Commodities]
Monday, May 6, 8:31 AM The commodity boom (DBC) is over, writes Morgan Stanley global macro chief Ruchir Sharma, as massive overinvestment - mostly to feed China's voracious demand - comes online just at the time said demand becomes considerably less voracious. Not only are China and emerging markets in general slowing, but the countries are striving to become more efficient (USO) as well. "If historical pattern holds, we are now entering a long period of falling commodity prices, which could last two decades." 2 Comments [Commodities]
Thursday, April 18, 10:32 AM One would expect lower crude inventories to result in higher prices, but that didn't happen yesterday as WTI slid below $87. Walter Kurtz's four possible reasons to explain crude's downside moves: weaker than expected growth in China has sparked a negative sentiment in commodity markets; hedge funds unwinding positions; lower U.S. demand for gasoline; North American production continues to surprise. 2 Comments [Commodities]
Monday, April 15, 11:57 AM It's not as bad as gold, but crude oil is taking a beating too as weaker-than-anticipated economic reports from China deepen demand worries. Goldman Sachs says it has closed its long position in Brent crude with a loss of ~15%, worried prices will come under more pressure as European refining capacity comes back online after routine maintenance. WTI -2.9% to $88.59, Brent -2.6% to $100.45. Comment! [Energy, Global & FX]
Monday, April 15, 6:57 AM S&P 500 (SPY) futures -0.5%, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) -0.4% as the liquidation in precious metals continues. Other sensitive commodities: WTI crude (USO) -2.5% to $88.76, and copper (JJC) -3.4% to $3.23. 6 Comments [On the Move]
Monday, April 15, 4:49 AM China's GDP miss and disappointing industrial production data are sending global equity markets lower, as well as copper and oil, which is also suffering from the IEA slightly cutting its demand outlook last week. Japan -1.6%, Hong Kong -1.4%, China -1.1%, India +0.6%. EU Stoxx 50 -0.2%, London -1%, Paris -0.8%, Frankfurt -0.8%, Milan -0.2%, Madrid -0.4%. Oil -2.4%, copper -1.5%. 1 Comment [Global & FX, Top Stories, On the Move, Energy]
Thursday, April 11, 10:47 AM Crude futures give back a bit of recent gains after the IEA cuts its outlook for global oil demand growth to 795K bbl/day from a previous 820K bbl/day, reflecting weak demand from industrialized countries and especially Europe, where 2013 consumption is seen at the lowest since the 1980s. Still, political threats to supply and an imminent recovery in refinery operations mean it's "too early to call a bear market." Comment! [Energy, Commodities, Global & FX]
Monday, April 1, 8:57 AM West Texas crude’s discount to Brent prices widened from the narrowest in almost nine months after Exxon Mobil (XOM) shut its 96K bbl/day Pegasus pipeline system due to a leak in Arkansas. Inventories already are high, and the pipeline closure will mean less crude can be transported from the U.S. Midwest, potentially exacerbating a glut of oil coming from Canada to the Midwest. Comment! [Energy, Commodities]
Tuesday, March 26, 5:45 PM An increasing push to substitute natural gas for oil and improvements in fuel economy could lead to the end of growing oil demand much sooner than expected, Citi's Seth Kleinman forecasts. The last decade's structural bull market was a result of surging global oil demand and weak non-OPEC supply growth; the outlook has now reversed, meaning Brent prices are likely to hover at $80-$90/bbl by decade's end. 7 Comments [Energy, Global & FX]
Tuesday, March 12, 6:46 PM Surging output from shale oil fields likely will lift U.S. crude output to 7.5M bbl/day by October, topping net imports for the first time since 1996, the EIA says in its Short-Term Energy Outlook. U.S. demand last year fell 400K bbl/day to a 16-year low 18.55M, and EIA expects demand in 2013-14 to barely inch higher, as aggressive conservation and substitution measures have pushed consumption onto a new trajectory. 4 Comments [Energy, Commodities, U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, March 12, 8:18 AM World oil demand is set to grow 800K barrels/day in 2013, says OPEC in its March monthly report. That's unchanged from a previous forecast and the same as 2012. Supplies, however, are on the rise thanks to shale oil, says Compass Global's Andrew Su, cutting his forecast for WTI crude (USO) to $75/barrel. 1 Comment [Commodities]
Monday, March 11, 5:41 PM More on Goldman's buy-the-dip short-term outlook for commodities: Crude oil is attractive because of emerging-market demand, limited OPEC spare capacity and relatively low global inventories. Brent futures should continue to show backwardation, and "substantial pipeline de-bottlenecking" in North America should support WTI prices. Gold is another story: It's a flat-out short, with prices rising before falling. 4 Comments [Commodities, Energy]
Monday, March 11, 11:56 AM U.S. oil stockpiles are up almost 6% YTD and remain well above the five-year average for this time of year, due mostly to a 22% surge in U.S. oil production. Yet crude prices also are historically high, and with coming fixes to pipeline bottlenecks likely to unlock WTI’s value and Brent supply and demand still tight as Iranian crude remains out of the market, it would take a major shock for high prices to end anytime soon. 1 Comment [Energy]
Friday, March 8, 9:43 AM Brent crude oil futures extend losses below $110/bbl and WTI crude slips toward $91 after U.S. payrolls data indicates labor markets are on a path toward sustained job creation. The restart of the North Sea pipeline system, no change in policy from either the Bank of England or ECB, and indications of increased OPEC exports also are keeping a lid on Brent prices. 10 Comments [Energy, Commodities, Global & FX]
Monday, March 4, 11:15 AM WTI crude (USO -1.4%) slips below $90/barrel for the first time this year with a renewed policy hawkishness out of Beijing as good an excuse as any for the last few weeks' slide. Check out the correlation between oil and the China A Share ETF (CAF) since the start of February. Comment! [Commodities, On the Move]
Wednesday, February 20, 2:18 PM Nymex crude oil futures have plunged ~2.5%, as a large block of trades fueled rumors that a commodity fund was forced to liquidate. But it doesn’t take a conspiracy theory to see why oil prices are taking a hit: U.S. supplies are rising and will continue to do so while shipments on the Seaway pipeline run below the daily capacity of 400K barrels. Plus, in a market filled with speculators, a correction is in order. 1 Comment [Energy, Commodities]

DBO PowerShares DB Oil ETF

DBO

PowerShares DB Oil ETF