PowerShares DB Silver Fund ETF (DBS)
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DBS Forum Topics
- All Comments on DBS
- General Discussion on DBS
- The Rebirth of Gold and Silver? [view article]
- Is Silver Finally Starting to Catch Up with Gold? [view article]
- Most Overbought and Oversold US ETFs [view article]
- Commodity ETFs and ETNs [view article]
- Where Are Precious Metals Heading? [view article]
- Sean Rakhimov: 3-Digit Silver Ahead [view article]
- Managing Duration for Commodity Funds: Which Strategy Is Best? [view article]
- Metalline Mining's Silver Lining [view article]
- ETF Update: Bearish Dollar, Biofuel ETFs, Gold and Silver ETFs [view article]
- The 3 Wisemen: Silver, Sugar and Soybeans [view article]
- Not all Metals are Created Equal (Part I) [view article]
- How Are Commodity Funds Performing YTD? [view article]
loading ...Recent DBS Articles
- The Rebirth of Gold and Silver?
- Most Overbought and Oversold US ETFs
- Where Are Precious Metals Heading?
- Managing Duration for Commodity Funds: Which Strategy Is Best?
- This Week's Commodity Snapshot
- Sean Rakhimov: 3-Digit Silver Ahead
- ETF Update: Bearish Dollar, Biofuel ETFs, Gold and Silver ETFs
- The 3 Wisemen: Silver, Sugar and Soybeans
- Not all Metals are Created Equal (Part I)
- How Are Commodity Funds Performing YTD?
- Full List of Articles »
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Turtle
Expecting Silver to Lead Gold on Both the Upside and the Downside [view article]
Lisa, see //stockcharts.com for P&F charts.They are within the best websitesites for technical analysis.
I agree, silver could retrace down to $15, but then retry a higher high.
Many studies are showing that in defationary or inflationary busts, prcious metals are performing badly. Is this time going to be different ?
... Reply
Expecting Silver to Lead Gold on Both the Upside and the Downside [view article]
Silver "crazy" here. There are some serious supply and demand issues that underly silver that will ultimately transcend any short term economic cycle. If silver goes to $14 (which I think it might) it will bounce off of it like a super-ball. Look to see what has happened to silver every time it's touched its 200 day moving average after a sharp sell off. ReplyXIV
Interest Rates and the Mineral Bubble: The Hidden Parameter [view article]
Gentlemen: Gold bugs and inflation have one thing in common. They are eternal. Money is a mental mutual agreement. Tulip bulbs once had value. For 2500 years gold has been used as a medium of exchange. It seems reasonable that it is not going to vanish. As a British economist recently said,"In 1920 an ounce of gold would buy a decent men's suit. In 2008 an ounce will buy you one also." X number of barrels of oil, bushels of wheat, tons of steel, or what you will can be exchanged for suits or any paper money in the world. Amen. Robespierre XVI ReplyEditors
General Discussion on DBS
Is this a buy or a sell? ReplyInterest Rates and the Mineral Bubble: The Hidden Parameter [view article]
To paultaut:You say:
"When the yield curve was not inverted the price of gold doubled......as the US dollar went down, gold went up even though the yield curve was positive... "
We are not using the same yield curve and/or we have not the same evaluation of what an normal slope of the yield curve is.
You say:
"The sovereign funds have more money to invest than all of the hedge funds in the world combined...they are investing in hard assets because their respective country's currency reserves are overweight dollars and each country would like to diversify directly but can't without debasing the dollar even further..."
Most of the sovereign funds are from countries which do have mineral ressources one of their way to invest in hard assets, as you call them is precisely to keep their ressources in the ground.
You say:
"What is the Yield curve in say...India,China,Braz... middle East,The Eastern European Bloc,Vietnam, etc....or don't they have any say in the little USA Box you have constructed."
Even though the dollar has gone down and a lot of other currencies are used in the global economy, still nearly all international transactions are made in Dollar and all the minerals are quoted in dollars.
Shalom Hamou
Independant Yield Curve Special Advisor
shalem.ashalem@gmail.c... Reply
Interest Rates and the Mineral Bubble: The Hidden Parameter [view article]
To Seadrive:You say:
"Gold, silver, oil, and commodities in general do not follow the yield curve, although they may seem to due to the fact that the fed normally keeps, or tries to keep, yields in more or less lock step with inflation, and inflation forecasts. This time the fed lowered rates in the face of higher inflation, along with printing billions of dollars of bailout money. Watch what happens to the "inflation curve", which commodities do follow."
The fact that minerals are an hedge to inflation is not proven: minerals have gone up when the Fed increased short term interest rates to 2.5% at that time there was next to no inflation.
Inflation has started to increase only six month ago.
Shalom Hamou
Independent Yield Curve Special Adviser
shalem.ashalem@gmail.c...
Reply
Interest Rates and the Mineral Bubble: The Hidden Parameter [view article]
To Whisper On The WindYous say:
"The price of oil is going up, even though our reserves are also going up, as of today. So it can't be demand, and it proves that conservation may not change the price of oil."
This is precisely my point saying that the supply is more a function of the yield curve rather than the equilibrium of offer as defined by the marginal cost of extraction and demand.
Your observation is backing my article it is not a rebuke.
Shalom Hamou
Independant Yield Curve Special Advisor
shalem.ashalem@gmail.c... Reply
Interest Rates and the Mineral Bubble: The Hidden Parameter [view article]
To Gigem77:You say:
"The fed has been decreasing interest rates for some time. So your first premise is wrong. Bernanke has cut rates 3 full percentage points. Commodities have risen in price throughout the period of those cuts. But Greenspan raised rates 14 times between 2004 and 2006 and commodities rose in price during that time frame also. Go back and do your research again."
I am talking about the shape of the yield curve, more precisely its slope, if the cut of the short term rate causes a decrease of the long term rate that is consistant with an inverted yield curve minerals can go up even if short term interest rate go up.
This is true also when short term rate goes up.
That phenomenon is of such an importance that Alan Greenspan has mentioned it pubicly and called it a Conundrum.
You say:
"Name a miner that is "hoarding reserves". Copper is nearing $4.00 per pound and every miner with a pick and shovel is digging as fast and as hard as they can. High prices are a strong motivation to over produce, not hoard. "
I can't name one miner hoarding reserves, what I am talking is market behavior, if someone is hoarding reserve do you believe he will make that public?
The high market price of something doesn't say anything about your willingness to sell it, if your expectation is that it will increase 1% in price tomorow wouldn't you wait till tomorrow rather than sell it at the "high" price of today?
Shalom Hamou
Independant Yield Curve Special Advisor
shalem.ashalem@gmail.c... Reply
Interest Rates and the Mineral Bubble: The Hidden Parameter [view article]
To Dan Caldwell:Since digital photography has replaced traditional film photography the industrial usage of silver has dramatically gone down.
You say:
"Almost every oz. of silver that has ever been mined has been used, not hoarded, and mining production is dropping even as industrial demand applications are rising."
What I am saying is that minerals are hoarded in the ground, so that remark is consitant with my article.
Hoarding, anywhere else than in the ground is not economically viable because the storage cost are higher and are deducted from the short term interest rateinterest rate. Reply
Interest Rates and the Mineral Bubble: The Hidden Parameter [view article]
To Bob Jackson:The fixed cost of extraction are not relevant to the pricing of oil what is relevant is the marginal cost of extraction which is the highest variable cost of all the oil well that are needed to satisfy demand.
It is true , however that there might be some cases where the owner have no command on his output. I am willing to discuss that point here with you.
Shalom Hamou
Independant Yield Curve Special Advisor
shalem.ashalem@gmail.c... Reply
Interest Rates and the Mineral Bubble: The Hidden Parameter [view article]
We probably have a different definition of a normal yield curve. ReplyExpecting Silver to Lead Gold on Both the Upside and the Downside [view article]
with that said... there's nothing to stop a blow off top on the euro to 1.60+ and a blow off on oil upto $120+... in these crazy markets it can all happen in the space of a week ReplyExpecting Silver to Lead Gold on Both the Upside and the Downside [view article]
and..... add some more economic worry into the EU... and drive the euro back to 1 to 1 on the USD..... no one will touch the Euro ever again having instantly lost 30% of their hard cash.... people forget the 1980s and 1990s when Italy, Spain and others were in a constant mess with their currencies... the only thing that has changed in those countries is huge inflation since the Euro came in.... The EU and the Euro is by no means the safe haven it appears to be.....The USD can infact have a huge rally, simply off the back of the EU economic slide....
and the US is way ahead of the EU in curing its troubles... and my god... help the EU if there are problems, all those leaders will be bickering and the whole thing will become a huge mess... .
you may not like Bernake and the Fed and GW and the wonky US Election system... but at least its predictable in its mess....
The EU and Euro is a disaster waiting to happen.... Reply
Interest Rates and the Mineral Bubble: The Hidden Parameter [view article]
I just can't wait....what does the yield curve in the US have to do with the price of gold in a Global economy?When the yield curve was not inverted the price of gold doubled......as the US dollar went down, gold went up even though the yield curve was positive...
The current rise in gold is an attempt by the newly empowered wealthy to get out of the dollar......there is no current currency to get into....they are going into hard assets....Gold is just one of these assets.....
The sovereign funds have more money to invest than all of the hedge funds in the world combined...they are investing in hard assets because their respective country's currency reserves are overweight dollars and each country would like to diversify directly but can't without debasing the dollar even further...
What is the Yield curve in say...India,China,Braz... middle East,The Eastern European Bloc,Vietnam, etc....or don't they have any say in the little USA Box you have constructed. Reply
Expecting Silver to Lead Gold on Both the Upside and the Downside [view article]
if there is even a whisper of economic problems in the EU then the Euro will take a long deserved dive back below 1.50.so at this moment, its not a question of the USD strengthening, its a question of the Euro weakening....
if the Euro weakens then of course oil, gold, silver and all the rest will drop like a stone,
so you see that the USD can in fact have quite a nice bounce, without actually improving fundamentals at all, simply because the opposition Euro zone... is weakening....
case in point take a look at a chart of the British Pound... its backed off from 2.10 to around 1.98, as weakness in the UK becomes a worry.....
put a similar chart onto the Euro and that will drag gold and oil and the rest with it.... not because the US has improved at all, but simply because the EU zone is failing and so the USD starts to look stronger... or like not such a bad bet..... Reply