PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund (DBV)

All Comments on DBV

  • commenter
    ozzy43
    Aug 21 11:09 AM
    Commodities Correction: Painful but Healthy [view article]
    Maybe Paul is on to something - instead of charting and technical analysis, perhaps we should start praying to the animal spirits, building animistic totems in our living rooms, etc. Then again, probably not. Reply
  • commenter
    GMiki
    Aug 21 10:22 AM
    Commodities Correction: Painful but Healthy [view article]
    Paul, The so-called bear is starting to back away. That's called fundamentals. miki Reply
  • commenter
    David
    Jackson
    Aug 20 01:57 AM
    My Website
    Currency ETFs and ETNs [view article]
    Thank you! We've updated the list to include:
    Market Vectors Double Long Euro ETN (URR)
    Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN (DRR)     Reply
  • commenter
    ikkyu
    Aug 19 07:18 PM
    DBV: Unlevered Carry Trade ETF for the Masses [view article]
    My friend, you might read the prospectus. It is levered 2:1, but I agree its a nice fund.

    Cheers,
    john

    Reply
  • commenter
    Chance
    Carson
    Aug 19 03:23 PM
    My Website
    Currencies: Dead Cats and Yapping Dogs [view article]
    Oops..I meant PGD not PDG..sorry! Reply
  • commenter
    kkin365
    Aug 19 03:17 PM
    My Website
    DBV: Unlevered Carry Trade ETF for the Masses [view article]
    This is the first time I have read about DBV. Intuitively, exchange-rate change plays a key role in carry trade. It is tought enough with one currency (say, Yen); it is certainly much tougher with a basket of currencies, given the geopolitical uncertainties and such. Reply
  • commenter
    Chance
    Carson
    Aug 19 03:09 PM
    My Website
    Currencies: Dead Cats and Yapping Dogs [view article]
    Hi Ray..I'm writing an article on the several ETNs currently distributing dividends and was wondering if there are more than these four that I've found so far- GCE, JEM, PDG and BSR? Thanks for your help. We really appreciate your thorough articles on SeekingAlpha.com.

    We're also wondering if you might be willing to write a contributing editor article on currency ETN/ETF investing for our web-site AboutETFs.com. If so, would you mind calling me to discuss what we're looking for in such an article? We believe an article by you would really be appreciated by our readers (we are a ETF/ETN resource portal for average individual investors seeking unbiased information about ETFs.) We personally have found your articles on currency investing to be pithy, extraordinarily informed pieces! We can even understand (usually) what you're talking about! LOL! Thanks again, Chance Carson, Editor, AboutETFs.com. 719-268-0800. chance@retire101.net     Reply
  • commenter
    rayhendon
    Aug 19 12:12 PM
    Currencies: Dead Cats and Yapping Dogs [view article]
    Muddling Investor: You have the right idea to dig into your own research. I am sticking with Mexico and Brazil, but I believe both these currencies may be in for a rough patch ahead. Both countries have slid into trade deficits, and, in my view, Brazil is likely to allow the real to slide vs. the dollar in order to help it correct its deficit. This will probably mean giving up some points of its gain over the last few years. But, I don't think the carry trade investor will lose because the interest rate there is so high.

    elwin45: I must say the economic scenario you lay out is beyond my ability to follow. I don't know what world you are being real about, but it isn't the one I live in. Generally, an increased supply of a currency, such as U.S trourist in China spending for motels, food and taxis, will put downward pressure on their currency--not upward. And, in my world, nations holding bad debt denominated in dollars will not increase their purchases of dollars because of it. I actually don't see much relationship between those two items, other than a tendency to dump the debt and recycle the proceeds into other investments--assuming something is left to recycle. Whether the recycled purchases are in dollars or not will depend on the interest spreads and currency spreads at the time. I'll give you credit for original thinking, but I just don't follow it. Good luck.

    ikkyu: I always enjoy your perspective, and I appreciate your comments. As far as interest being the only attraction of the carry trade, I think you are speaking of motive, which is highly personal, and I am speaking of a strategy. I tend to be somewhat of a purist when dealing with strategies and theories, and try to stay focused on the driving force behind it. But, you are correct that holding currency pairs involves risks, and they may be substantial, in that there is likely to be some appreciation/depreciat... between them. So no carry trader can ignore the prospects of having a profit or loss from the transaction. In fact, if there is a big interest rate differential between two currencies, that is reason enough to expect there to be some change in their currency relationships. The carry trade is a temporary opportunity that requires an exit strategy to be successful.

    As far as JEM and DBV being correlated, that may prove to be true over some time period, but I think that the developed economices and emerging markets do follow a different drummer. So, I don't look for a strong sympathy between them. But, I'll keep an eye on this possibility.

    Best wishes,

    Ray

    Reply
  • commenter
    ikkyu
    Aug 19 10:05 AM
    Currencies: Dead Cats and Yapping Dogs [view article]
    Greeting Ray,

    Thanks for the ongoing articles about FX carry. It is amazing to see how little info there is out there for such an awesome strategy. You are about the only mainstream writer that details it.

    Also, thanks for alerting us to JEM, not sure how i missed that.

    I think that you will find JEM and DBV have strong correlation in a rising to high volatility market, so i am afraid that i don't share your diversity views with respect to regions and countries. Just compare USD/TRY and NZD/JPY over the last couple years to see what i mean. Many people look at fx carry as a trade with a risk premium because the reversals are so violent. I see FX carry collectively as being either ON or OFF.

    I also do not believe the principle moneymaking of FX carry lies in collecting interest, but then i only employ pairs with a spread >3%.

    Nonetheless, i share your enthusiasm. And look forward to more thoughts.

    Cheers from Osaka,
    john     Reply
  • commenter
    Zack
    Aug 19 04:54 AM
    My Website
    DBV: Unlevered Carry Trade ETF for the Masses [view article]
    Sorry, I thought the DBV was levered (see link below)
    www.invescopowershares...

    From ETFConnect as well (www.etfconnect.com/sel...):
    "The Fund seeks to track changes in the level of the Deutsche Bank G10 Currency Future Harvest Index. The Index is designed to reflect the return from investing on a 2 is to1 leveraged basis in long currency futures positions for certain currencies associated with relatively high yielding interest rates."     Reply
  • commenter
    elwind45
    Aug 19 03:16 AM
    Currencies: Dead Cats and Yapping Dogs [view article]
    Can we think about the real world for a second. Dollar strength happens to coincide with beginning of games in China. China would build a position before the games to make change!(dollar for dollar) Once games end dollars will be exchanged for Yuan(stored in American fed). This added strength to a dollar which was being bought by world banks to even out of horrible mortgage paper investments in the states. Lastly, there has been a large rise in American exports(backward looking) that is also temporary. Going forward each of these factors are temporary and will not continue in any form to keep this rally going! Until the truth about American inflation is realised dollar is at top of range! Reply
  • commenter
    Maybe
    Aug 19 01:34 AM
    8 Ways to Profit if OPEC Dumps the Dollar [view article]
    It is difficult to overemphasize the role of trust in a debt relationship. All the oil earnings and Japanese savings are on loan to the US; but the US, thanks to losses in the unregulated financial sector,cost of war, and imprudent consumption, cannot afford to pay anything on these loans. Once the lender starts getting negative returns, he'll look elsewhere. The Euro is the first currency that comes to mind, even though the European economies simply cannot absorb the trillions now in US debt paper. Hopefully, a new chapter is being opened from 2009. Reply
  • commenter
    Muddling
    Investor
    Aug 18 10:10 PM
    My Website
    Currencies: Dead Cats and Yapping Dogs [view article]
    Great article! Thanks for UUP suggestion. I'm not sure peso and real are good ideas though, but they at least worth good research. My hunch, dollar is going up against almost everything. But I just might be wrong... Reply
  • commenter
    rayhendon
    Aug 18 09:36 PM
    Currencies: Dead Cats and Yapping Dogs [view article]
    surgcare: I consider a currency strong if it is going up or at least holding its own against other majors. I consider it weak if it cannot hold its own, as the dollar did not do for the last sever or so years. I feel the dollar is undervalued now, not because of any great fiscal restraint or wisdom coming from our political learers, but simply on the what you get when you pay for something in America with most any other currency. It has been my experience that currencies almost always overshoot the mark and become under or over valued briefly before a correction set in. I think the dollar is there now. But, of course, I may be well off the mark on this estimation.

    As far as Rome, I guess we, and millions of others could discuss the causes of Rome's fall until the end of time. From my limited knowledge of its history, I think Rome was ultimately a moral failure: it never rose above slavery, and it lost the support of the general poplulation over the course of centuries of warfare. In the end, it seems, there was no one left to defend it from more aggressive peoples clammoring to take it.

    Thanks for the comments.

    droskoph, thanks for the compliment. In reading it again, today, I feel I could have said about the same thing with many fewer words, but I almost always feel that way when its over. I wasn't targeting any one in particular about the Rome comments. It's a popular thing to do.

    Best wishes,

    Ray     Reply
  • commenter
    droskoph
    Aug 18 07:08 PM
    My Website
    Currencies: Dead Cats and Yapping Dogs [view article]
    Ray,

    That was a well written article. I make a veiled parallel to Rome in seekingalpha.com/artic... but portend that the dollar will indeed rise due to the magnitude of the deflation and risk of collapsing the empire by fiating the loss.
     Reply
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