PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund (DBV)
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- All Comments on DBV
- General Discussion on DBV
- The Great Dollar Pump of 2008: A Doomed Central Bank Intervention [view article]
- Monetary Madness: Global Margin Call Underway [view article]
- Currency ETFs: Consider the Commissions [view article]
- 8 Ways to Profit if OPEC Dumps the Dollar [view article]
- The Rules of the Game Have Changed [view article]
- Keiser: US Dollar 'Backed by Bananas' [view article]
- Top 10 Currency Trading Tips From Deutsche Bank [view article]
- The New Currency ETFs Add Little For Investors [view article]
- Whither the Dollar? Currency Trends and ETFs [view article]
- The $64 Trillion Question: What's the Dollar Really Worth? [view article]
- The Complete List of Currency ETFs [view article]
- Dollar's Fortunes Should Boost U.S. Economy [view article]
loading ...Recent DBV Articles
- Coordinated Rate Cuts: Bullish for the Dollar?
- Monetary Madness: Global Margin Call Underway
- Currency ETFs Shine Through Bleak Market
- Keiser: US Dollar 'Backed by Bananas'
- The Rules of the Game Have Changed
- Whither the Dollar? Currency Trends and ETFs
- Dollar Rally Is a Fake - Stick to Healthcare and Oil
- Weekly Market Outlook: Sept. 8 - 12
- Dollar's Fortunes Should Boost U.S. Economy
- The Great Dollar Pump of 2008: A Doomed Central Bank Intervention
- Full List of Articles »
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Whither the Dollar? Currency Trends and ETFs [view article]
The difference between patience and timing is the entry point itself, if the entry point is low enough one can afford to have patience. Timing allows one to have that patience without undue stress.I started investing in the CanRoys when oil was at $25, I watch the gyrations without stress. And don't care if oil drops to $80 or less, I can afford to have patience. However, those who entered oil at its peak this year, or bought solar/coal shares at those peak levels are being reamed and now are roaming through the various articles trying to justify their investments by extolling their virtues.
The best will remain the best but are not immune to corrections. Whether real or not, perceptions are fundamental to both Bear and Bull markets. The current perception is that of a BEAR market in commodities. A Sky is Falling Scenario has been applied tp Global Growth. Oil/Solar/Coal stocks are all energy plays and all are suffering. Pure plays in Wind are few and far in between. They can buck the trend because those wishing to invest in them have very limited choices, especially in the US on any major exchange.
So I would postulate that timing is more important than patience. Unless you are getting paid an extraordinary dividend while you wait.
Just MHO. Reply
Digger
Whither the Dollar? Currency Trends and ETFs [view article]
I simplify currency risk by investing in Vanguard Energy fund, which is comprised of approximately 50% US domiciled corporations and 50% foreign. The US based corporations are mostly multinationals that derive much of their revenues from operations in foreign countries.Having invested since 1963 in international and global securities, I have observed the unpredictable and mysterious gyrations of the USD and precious metals. I'm content to "keep it simple stupid" (KISS) by investing indirectly in hard assets: oil, natural gas, coal, uranium for nuclear power, etc. and to employ patience to realize my gains.
Patience is as important as timing. Reply
Whither the Dollar? Currency Trends and ETFs [view article]
"As always, investors have one eye on the recent past and one eye on the future."---aboveBetween future and past my eyes are doing temporary duty on todays grocery bag.
They say I have to save my dollars at 11% interest for them to buy the same loaf of bread next year.
Is this math simple for you or do you believe the Govt's #'s at 4%??
If so, good luck to you and go back to the complicated mumbo-jumbo that leaves you thinking .5 basis points is too much to even consider.
I took out a dollar--all it would morph into was an airplane--that seems like a lot till you find out many times you have to throw it for 1 frequent flyer mile!!, Same with a $20,--strange?? Reply
Whither the Dollar? Currency Trends and ETFs [view article]
that's "EUR/USD" $1.30 is a mortal lock ReplyWhither the Dollar? Currency Trends and ETFs [view article]
The dollar is experiencing the anti-bubble in the euro - and indeed in oil and the basket of world currencies.It will rest here and then rise very quickly. A week or so from now should be a good time to go short again.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: $1.30 is a mortal lock.
Disclosure: I have no financial positions in anything. Reply
Whither the Dollar? Currency Trends and ETFs [view article]
Is the dollar just bouncing off its summertime lows, or is this rebound the beginning of a new upward trend?USD is in correction mode (DX 81.xx target). Still surprisingly fast advance, no corrections, official names can be "felt" in the market action. Don't let behind the doors deals between US and Asia (China) fool you into thinking USD is now fundamentally bid. It is still fundamentally weak however since the latest carnage USD shorts will be more carefull and the rate of descent will be slower. Our target remains DX 65.xx zone, however it is hard to estimate the interval (well it is always hard, harder this time since govie USD bulls do not follow the same investing rules as other players) Best guess at moment 2q 2009....
We still remain JPY bulls (ag. EUR and USD).
Disclosure: short EURJPY and USDJPY Reply
The Great Dollar Pump of 2008: A Doomed Central Bank Intervention [view article]
HAHAHAHA!Folks: B.U.B.B.L.E.
The Ron-Paulite/goldbug/Ol... Left consensus is dying. That's right, Ron Paulites, if you knew any old-time socialists you'd know that Ron Paul's vision of dollar inflation is straight out of Marx.
You have to realize that your models are ancient and no longer work. How fast does gold have to go down before you realize you're wrong?
Predictions (and I have been making the same one for weeks and months) EUR/USD $1.30 is a mortal lock. Oil is headed for $70 and gold is headed well-through $700. Reply
The Great Dollar Pump of 2008: A Doomed Central Bank Intervention [view article]
As with all these articles, anyone claiming a conspiracy loses stature in my eyes. Yes, central banks manipulate markets, but there are no conspiracies. Everything is in the open and made in official statements. It's all there in black and white for all to see.As for the facts of the case, if you think the dollar will fall versus the euro, I hope you can sustain 30 percent losses. The euro is headed to parity. Their economy is weaker, their debt is larger, their demographics worse, and the currency may not even survive—some Germans already refuse to accept euro notes from Italian central banks.
If you're a precious metals buyer, I think the pain will be longer than most expect, but in the long-run you're in the right trade versus the dollar.
I will not short precious metals, but I am short the euro. Reply
ing
The Great Dollar Pump of 2008: A Doomed Central Bank Intervention [view article]
Conrad, I like conspiracy theories too, but this is much simple,there is fear, and all want to be liquid, so all assets including
commodity, currencies , real state are being sold against liquidity.
US dollar is liquidity, thats all. No more fear, assets up and inflation concerns, not now. Reply
cannot
compete!
The Great Dollar Pump of 2008: A Doomed Central Bank Intervention [view article]
Philman - spot on regarding the snowballing socialist effect! The "bailouts" continue to mount, and the effect is going to crush us. I can't believe we are putting up with this garbage! Meanwhile CEOs walk with golden parachutes. ReplyThe $64 Trillion Question: What's the Dollar Really Worth? [view article]
As stability in Asian countries and Russia and South America decreases, they shift their liquidity from local to dollars as they have done for decades.Fe: Thailand, Russia,
That is what is helping the dollar, once the balls started rolling Reply
The Great Dollar Pump of 2008: A Doomed Central Bank Intervention [view article]
NG, the only place you will pay $10 for a latte in France is at the airport, or in a fancy cafe in the center of Paris. Try buying a latte at a fancy restaurant in Manhattan. It is quite expensive. Most of France is still cheaper than the USA.The dollar has a long way to fall, but, I admit, so does the euro, pound and a lot of other currencies. Basically, paper money will fall in value, everywhere, because they are printing too much. Gold and silver would fall in value (in more than a temporary way) only if the central banks could print it...but they can't. They can only use the futures market to manipulate the price in the short and medium term.
Mr. Conrad began the discussion of futures market price manipulation, and still leads the discussion, with the clarity of his reasoning, and the excellence of his writing -- but others are following the lead, and making discoveries beyond where Conrad leaves off.
Check out this article on Bloomberg. Apparently, everything that Conrad has been saying about corruption on the futures markets is slowly being proven to be true.
www.bloomberg.com/apps... Reply
The Great Dollar Pump of 2008: A Doomed Central Bank Intervention [view article]
Great Article! Thanks for the eye-opener!I wonder how the Gold Carry Trade and spiking Gold Lease Rates play into this.
www.gata.org/node/4608
www.kitco.com/lease.ch... Reply
The Great Dollar Pump of 2008: A Doomed Central Bank Intervention [view article]
Listen... I shorted the euro at 1.55 for two simple reasons.1. Our fed fund rate had nowhere to go but up (even a severe recession whould not have created any more easing... we are at the least effective part of the curve). Euros equivalent had nowhere to go but down (they were clearly overplaying the inflation bogey man).
2. Asset values are badly distorted. Any commonsense measure will do. $10 Lattes in France, for example. Commercial real estate in large cities. The PE's of the stock markets...
Hot money chases the carry trade and cheap assets. Cold money chases the account imbalances.
At $1.40 neither of these factors is different than at $1.55, so I am not closing my position. Reply
Carson
The Complete List of Currency ETFs [view article]
FLYLOW, Philman and CTA: Thanks for your comments.Yeah, CTA, we also noticed the low correlation of CYT with the Yuan. Bummer!
By the way, Barclays just launched another bundled currency ETN-
(Barclays GEMS Asia 8 ETN. Symbol on NYSE Arca- AYT). This ETN bundles eight Asian currencies making it a bit too region specific for my tastes. I find JEM a much better world-wide diversified play with a significantly higher yield.
Murray Coleman of IndexUniverse wrote an excellent post about AYT last week which is an excellent overview worth reading if you are following or utilizing currency ETFs/ETNs: (www.indexuniverse.com/...)
Reply