Jan. 27, 2014, 12:14 PM
- Caterpillar managed to burn the shorts with Q4 results today - with big expense cuts and a new $10B buyback program - but other global growth bellwethers are having none of it. Joy Global (JOY -0.8%) and Cummins (CMI -1.3%) have given back early gains to turn solidly lower and Deere (DE +0.1%) is barely hanging on.
- "Despite our expectation that mine production will continue to increase, we expect mining companies to further reduce their capital expenditures in 2014 ... we're expecting sales in resource industries to decline modestly."
Jan. 3, 2014, 11:58 AM
- More on Joy Global's (JOY -1.5%) downgrade to Sell at Goldman Sachs: The firm sees "significant commodity and equipment over-supply driving medium-term growth headwinds," and expects mining capex budgets will remain under pressure longer than the stock is discounting today, trading at a 30%-40% premium to machinery peers on 2014-15 P/E.
- Other global machinery makers are showing minimal movement: CAT -0.1%, EXP +0.8%, GVA +0.2%, DE +0.4%.
Dec. 17, 2013, 1:38 PM
- The announcement of a $500M share repurchase program isn't enough to save the day for AGCO (AGCO -4.4%) after management - at this morning's Investor Meeting - expects headwinds to hitting $6 per share in earnings this year, and sees $6/share as likely in 2014.
- Industry unit tractor sales are expected to fall 0-5% in North America, 5% in South America (amid an early end to Brazilian price supports), and 0-5% in Western Europe.
- Presentation slides set #1, set #2
- Deere (DE -0.6%) slips a bit, but AGCO has outperformed by more than 1,500 basis points this year.
Dec. 7, 2013, 10:30 AM
- Barron's top 10 stock picks for 2014 shows an affinity for low P/E ratios, with 6 of the group sporting multiples of 10 or lower. The 2013 picks - which are up 35.2% on average, 900 bps ahead of the S&P 500 - had five names with single-digit P/Es. This year's list:
- A depressed play on a depressed commodity, don't be surprised if Barrick Gold (ABX) gets the attention of an activist investor next year.
- Up just 11% YTD, Canadian Natural Resources' (CNQ) free cash flow is set to quintuple to $5B in 2018 once the Horizon oil-sands facility expansion is completed.
- A rising world population needs food. At less than 10x earnings, Deere (DE) is the kind of company Warren Buffett might like to buy if it became available. "Stranger things have happened," writes Andrew Bary.
- Even after gaining 55% YTD, MetLife (MET) sells for less than 10x 2014 EPS and just above book value, but bigger gains are ahead once the company is given regulatory permission to buy back stock and boost its dividend. Met's also a good hedge against rising rates, as life insurers will benefit by having higher yields to invest in.
- The rest: Citigroup (C), GM, Intel (INTC), Nestle (NSRGY, NSRGF), Simon Property (SPG), U.S. Airways (LCC).
Dec. 4, 2013, 10:56 AM
Dec. 4, 2013, 10:34 AM
Nov. 25, 2013, 9:17 AM
Nov. 20, 2013, 1:32 PM
- Wells Fargo's Andrew Casey expects the post-earnings rally in shares of Underperform-rated Deere (DE +2.4%) "to be short-lived given anticipated multiple year farm equipment demand decline against global farmer purchasing power trends."
- Casey notes that the company cut its "2014 U.S. crop farm cash receipts [forecast] to $193.1M, down 13.6% from prior [and] down 7.3% Y/Y."
- Price target range is $72-75.
- See also: FQ4 results, earnings summary, CC transcript
- More: DE FQ4 slides (cash receipts breakdown cited by Casey is on slide 38).
Nov. 20, 2013, 7:39 AM
- Deere (DE) net profit rises to $806.8M from $687.6M.
- Net sales of equipment operations drop to $8.62B from $9.05B
- Forecasts that FY 2014 profit will fall to $3.3B from $3.54B in FY 2013 but that would still beat consensus of $3B.
- Deere also expects equipment sales to slip 3% in FY 2014 and 2% in FQ1.
- CEO Samuel Allen says Deere completed seven new factories in Brazil, Russia, India and China in FQ 2013, with the facilities "essential" in helping the company grow its customer base.
- Shares are +3.7%. (Previous) (PR)
Nov. 20, 2013, 7:01 AM
Nov. 20, 2013, 12:05 AM
Nov. 19, 2013, 5:30 PM
Nov. 8, 2013, 4:19 PM
- After trading lower for most of the session, Deere (DE) manages a late rally to close near the flat line.
- Earlier, BofA downgraded the shares to Neutral from Buy.
- Analyst Ross Gilardi cites "lower corn prices and upside risk to USDA crop production forecasts, reduced confidence in a Section 179 extension, and headwinds for the CE business."
- Price target cut to $89 from $95.
Nov. 8, 2013, 7:59 AM
- DuPont's (DD) agricultural seed unit of DuPont is teaming with Deere (DE) in a race against rival Monsanto (MON) to provide farmers with enhanced "precision agriculture" analyses aimed at maximizing crop production.
- The programs, which will roll out next year, will give farmers guidance on field management decisions including planting, crop treatment, pest control and even the best time to harvest.
- DuPont Pioneer has long counseled farmers on the best seed to plant for their particular farms, but the deal with Deere is the latest in a series of moves by both DD and rival MON to turn farm-related data analyses into new profit streams by incorporating analytics on an array of data points.
Nov. 7, 2013, 6:45 PM
- UBS offers seven stocks it says investors should remove from their portfolios or even consider selling short:
- Apache (APA), which still conducts lots of business in the volatile Middle East even after selling some reserves.
- Deere (DE), the only name the firm rates as a Sell, due to slowing overseas orders and poor domestic agriculture pricing.
- DirecTV (DTV), as it becomes harder for satellite TV providers to compete with bundled packages from cable companies and carriers.
- Emerson (EMR), which looks expensive relative to peers in trading at nearly 33x earnings.
- Eli Lilly (LLY), with a thin product pipeline and facing patent expirations on some of its top drugs, including Cymbalta, which accounts for nearly 25% of total revenue.
- Lockheed Martin (LMT), which may be facing sales cuts to the Defense Department.
- Target (TGT), which needs to step up its online sales if it wants to compete with its big-box retail rivals.
Nov. 7, 2013, 8:45 AM
- Cummins (CMI) cut to Neutral from Buy at ISI.
- Deere (DE) cut to Cautious from Neutral at ISI. Price target is $78.
- Parker-Hannifin (PH) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at ISI and upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies (price target hiked to $135 from $115). Jefferies cites "an inflection in orders, the prospect of revenue/earnings growth beyond current expectations and potential for a corresponding multiple upgrade drive our improved outlook."
- Caterpillar (CAT) cut to Neutral from Buy at ISI.
DE vs. ETF Alternatives
Deere & Company operates in three business segments: agriculture/ turf, construction/forestry, & financial services. The company helps customers to be more productive as they help to improve the quality of life for people around the world.
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