DHI Forum Topics
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- 10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
- Notes on a Worst-of-Breed Rally [view article]
- Can't Short XHB? Create Your Own Homebuilders ETF to Short [view article]
- Incentives and Dividends - Homebuilders Keep Trying [Housing Tracker] [view article]
- What's Book Value Worth for Homebuilders? [view article]
- Ranking Homebuilders by Discount to Book Value [view article]
- About That Homebuilder Rally... [Housing Tracker] [view article]
- If Homebuilders Build It, Will Homebuyers Come? [Housing Tracker] [view article]
- Is the FHA Effectively Condoning Mortgage Fraud? [view article]
- Barron's: Public, Not Private Homebuilders Will Prevail [Housing Tracker] [view article]
- Homebuilder Forecasts and Expectations [Housing Tracker] [view article]
- Homebuilder Legal Issues [Housing Tracker] [view article]
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- Homebuilder News: WCI On The Brink [Housing Tracker]
- Homebuilders Still Building Plenty [Housing Tracker]
- Notes on a Worst-of-Breed Rally
- Incentives and Dividends - Homebuilders Keep Trying [Housing Tracker]
- 10 Signs of a Recession
- About That Homebuilder Rally... [Housing Tracker]
- If Homebuilders Build It, Will Homebuyers Come? [Housing Tracker]
- Barron's: Public, Not Private Homebuilders Will Prevail [Housing Tracker]
- Is the FHA Effectively Condoning Mortgage Fraud?
- Homebuilder Legal Issues [Housing Tracker]
- Full List of Articles »
10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
Wildhawk; Obama and McCain are professional politicians, nothing more. They'll say anything to get elected. You're worried about how much "the war" cost; what about spending 500 million every four years to elect a president or 600 billion a year to import foreign oil? Lobbyists run Washington not the voting public. The US President is a figure head and Congress controls the money. Follow the money. When Oil is 200.00 a barrell and gasoline hits 6.00 a gallon what do you think the politicians will do then? Drill baby, drill.We went into Iraq because Saddam went off the reservation after the Gulf War and was a continuing threat to the Saudi's. Iran is the last great threat to the Saudi empire and their days are numbered. Remeber the photograph of GW holding King Faud's hand. That said it all.
We'll never leave the middle east as long as we need Gulf oil, period. Besides, low grade, on-going combat is beneficial for the MIC (Military Industrial Complex). Yes, it's wrong, but life's not fair and wussies get screwed.
The "spice" must flow.
Play the game and go long RIG, COP, CHK, and KPM and you will feel better about high oil and gas prices. Reply
10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
A-Lame-Dan - First I'm sure we all appreciate your participation in the changing of the word fundementalism into a bad word. Your like one of the pigs in the book animal farm. Please read it if you haven't already.Second most of the economic problems we face now and really ever since the great depression involve socialized or fascist industries. Freddiemac and Fannie are basically business in bed with government. Defense, Banking, energy, are highly regulated and affected by government policies. Lobbiest and big business interest controlling government is a direct result of the amount of money the government spends as a ratio to GDP. Blaming the free market for the failures of socialism and fascism is like blaming the rape victom for the rapers actions.
What we need to do is create as much as possible a wall of seperation between business and government. Its not the free market that is causing any of these problems. Rather is it failure of regulated markets, socialism, and fascism. The mortgage industry got so bad because of Fed induced low interest rates in combination with the idea that the government is going to bail everyone out.
Our country has one industry after another starting to become dominated by big businesses. Our government is the largest monopoly of all and it is created more monopolies and ogopolies through its policies.
Wildhawk no offense but OBAMA has said less about his platform and his ideas than any politician I've ever listened to. He speaks in platitudes and veils is ideas (if he really has any) in messages of hope. He's like the Joel Osteen turned into a politician.
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Notes on a Worst-of-Breed Rally [view article]
...to continue, I would agree that we shall shortly see the commodities start rallying forward again (especially Natural Gas stocks). There's no amnesia quite like the Wall Street brand of forgetting. Still, it's pretty rough out there right now... ReplyNotes on a Worst-of-Breed Rally [view article]
Mark, what are your thoughts on natural gas stocks? (CHK, HK, XTO, etc.).I took some profits on these a few weeks back, but then got back in and have since taken a beating. I'm not down as bad as I could be because I loaded up on DUG a while back...but it's still not a great feeling.
I would agree with your thesis that the "this is the death of commodities" crowd has once more rushed into the streets, forgetting that the last time they crowded the boulevard they were found shortly to be hiding beneath the dustbins...
So...is XTO a buy? It's gotten hammered.
Oh yeah...and don't even get me started on coal stocks... Reply
10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
A valuable, thought based opinion from "wildhawk" of which Seeking Alpha needs more. Less of the political opinions filled with rage and loathing from both sides would be useful.Seeking Alpha ought to be more or less dedicated to discourse about intelligent and productive investing ideas and thoughts. While it is true that political views are part and parcel of the investing scene and whom the next resident of the White House is will have a lasting effect on the economy many of the views offered are "talk radio" inspired. Seeking Alpha ought to limit, and or temper in an editorial fashion a good portion of the discourse to maintain creditability.
That having been said I offer this thought of my own. The essential problem of the economy, the debt/credit crisis, housing declines, the sinking dollar, etc., stems from one thing alone, and that is the advent of PEAK OIL. This is not a Republican or Democrat thing, nor is it Detroit's fault. It is OUR fault as a nation that has used energy, cheap energy in a profligate manner (along with the rest of the world) since the beginning of the eighteenth century. We are about five percent of the worlds' population and we use fully twenty five percent of the oil produced to run our economy. With world oil production peaking and then declining within the next few years the world economy will suffer along with the US significantly. Our investing and other thoughts should be focused on cooperative solutions to mitigate the biggest problem humanity has faced. If all of us, Republicans, Democrats, Right, Left, Conservative, Liberal, Evangelical, radio talk show host, or otherwise continue being so divided and unwilling to compromise we are doomed to a radically changed future. Reply
10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
The US economy and consumer are in the early stages of a massive de-leveraging; a process that can take multiple years. Raising rates to support the dollar is a card that the Fed just cannot play without taking the US economy into a tailspin. A weak dollar is here to stay Reply10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
When did Seeking Alpha become a political opinion page? And why are so many people anti-Obama? A big part of the problem in this country is the black and white thinking (sorry- no pun intended) that this administration has shoved down all our throats- "you're with us or against us", "if you don't fund the war you're not a patriot" etc. That's part of the reason we're here in the first place. At least Obama is willing to listen and attempt to understand the issues, economic and political, before making a snap judgment and never waivering. Call it pandering or whatever you want, but to paraphrase Keynes on his change of positions: "when the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do sir?" That's just common sense, something the leadership in this country has been sorely lacking for some time.Solutions to this mess? Heck if I know, but I do know that a "Manhattan Project" endeavor on alternative energy sources would produce real tangible change and significant energy sources in far less than 50 years- more like 10-15. Look at how far solar has come just in the last few years (I read somewhere that solar panels have increased efficiency 3X in less than 10 years). Or even research on hydrogen or electric cars- heck a decade ago, people were saying we wouldn't see electric cars for 30 years if we were lucky and now we're looking at a strong likelihood of a reasonably affordable ($35k) commercially available electric car in 2010.
Bottom line is we still live in a great innovative country and can work our way out of this if we put our minds and our money to work in the right places- alternative energy and infrastructure. Stop spending billions on Iraq that could be spent on research and development of new energy and shoring up our sagging infrastructure- bring our money and our focus back home for once.
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10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
One comment I've seen on a fairly regular basis is releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve into the market to drive down the price of oil. Only 2 things wrong with that idea. 1) The purpose of the reserve is to provide a safety net for miltary and essential/critical needs in times of supply interruption...NOT to influence market prices. 2)The quantity in the reserve is a drop in the bucket, compared to what the US needs on an annual basis, let alone global demand. Releasing the reserves to lower the price of oil in any meaningful fashion would work about as well as Berneke's and Paulson's "jawboning" the dollar up.jan Reply
10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
Read an article about imminent recession---then read comments about oil???It's not just oil--It's a nation of consumers over-extended on easy credit, debt over their heads, and inflation pushing them under.
Even gas at $2.00=50%=1/2 won't save them--or the banks!!
Back on topic: Pretty good article on recognizable markers on the way to recession. We're 3/4 way down the mountain and the brakes -(more fiat liquidity)-ain't working!!
Go vote for Obama if you think higher taxes is the Rx for recession!! Reply
Can't Short XHB? Create Your Own Homebuilders ETF to Short [view article]
Congratulations to those who held on to your homebuilder shorts since the date of this article in February '08 and through the bounce in May. The FED, FRE, FNM, and others have attempted to float the market to buy time, but in the end, market will always return to fundamentals.Reply
10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
As for my message to Barack:Just don't give us this BS that a program to develop renewables constitutes an energy policy.
People complain that drilling will take 10 years to get oil. Yes. And R & D on renewables will take at least 50 years before they can realistically be expected to provide most of our energy.
What do we do until then? The things that might address that are:
1). Aggressive production of conventional energy sources
2). Aggressive pursuit of conservation. Some may not be fun. We may have to give up automobiles. Still, it beats alternative 3.
3). Our society simply dies off for lack of energy. Problem solved.
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10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
Whoops, got so carried away with my frozen nuts concept that I forgot the rest of the energy program:3). more nuclear plants
4). Drill, drill, drill for oil
5). As far as questionable future sources such as biofuels and hydrogen- their shortcomings will probably mean they never amount to much but we should still do a little bit of research, who knows we might come up with something. Biofuels will probably have a small role in the future to power military jets and air travel for rich people. Reply
10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
The closest thing that anyone can come up with as far as an energy policy:1). Aggressive development of Electric Vehicles.
2). Manhattan project to develop renewables (wind/solar). And don't forget that wind and solar are intermittent. We either are going to need to develop giant energy storage devices or we need to develop a global "monster grid" for electricity so that when the wind is blowing in Timbuktu we can send the wind energy to people freezing their nuts off in Inuvik Canada. Reply
10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
The political situation:1). George Bush doesn't have a clue (about energy or the economy in general. That is pretty clear from his so-called "strong dollar" policy)
2). John McCain doesn't have a clue. He admits he doesn't understand the economy. Hey, give a guy a break, the other politicians don't understand the economy either.
3). Barack Obama doesn't have a clue. He thinks the US is a prospoerous nation that he is going to steer slightly in the direction of welfare state at the expense of prosperity.
Earth to Barack: The US economy is a bankrupt pile of rubble and you can forget about expanding any programs because we will be hard pressed to be able to continue to fund the ones already on the books. And as far as the "moon shot" for alternative energy.
Yes we need a Manhattan type project. Hopefully it won't be a corrupt program like ethanol where we starve third world people in order to put money in the pockets of ethanol hucksters.
And if we have a Manhattan project on renewables and if we do it right, then MAYBE 50-75 years from now we will be getting over 50% of our energy from renewables.
What do we do in the next 50-75 years?
I don't think Barack has an answer. But, hey, don't feel bad, Barack. Nobody else has an answer either. Reply
10 Signs of a Recession [view article]
quetzalcoatl said:"I am a liberal and progressive, but I can't see any good coming of an ever weakening dollar."
Yes, no good will come from it. The only reason we have been devaluing the dollar is that if we tried to strengthen the dollar we would go into an economic depression.
Of course, as we devalue the dollar our economy continues to decline, just in slow-motion instead of in one giant crash.
Ultimately, which would lead us to a deeper depression- a strong dollar or a weak dollar? Probably a weak dollar, because our economy is basically a pyramid scheme built on debt, and the longer we go trying to keep the economy afloat by building up the pyramid, the bigger a crash we will have when it finally comes down. Reply