DR Horton Inc. (DHI)

All Comments on DHI

  • commenter
    john1
    Sep 09 11:54 AM
    Housing: Did We Learn Nothing from the Dotcom Bust? [view article]
    Just more negative speculation from unpatrotic liberals that hate America, and the troops. Reply
  • commenter
    mrresponsibl
    e
    Sep 09 08:20 AM
    Analysts, Ratings Agencies Still Forecast Trouble For Homebuilders [Housing Tracker] [view article]
    chrismartenson.com Reply
  • commenter
    User 258225
    Sep 09 12:04 AM
    Housing: Did We Learn Nothing from the Dotcom Bust? [view article]
    Here in Fairfax County, VA the median monthly income for a household is around $105,000. The median sales price of a home is around $380,000. So the ratio is 380/104 or 3.6. The historic national average is around 3.0, but I imagine in the Washington DC suburbs it is higher given that employment is never really a factor since the federal government is a major employer. Consider also interest rates probably will drop to around 5.75% for a 30 year mortgage with 0 points. From what I've seen Principal-Interest-Tax... cost for a house is less than if you were to rent a typical 3 bedroom/2 bath townhome; this does not even take into account the mortgage and tax deduction. Reply
  • commenter
    2houndz
    Sep 08 10:57 PM
    Currency Market Predicts Bailout Is the End of the Credit and Housing Crunch [view article]
    Nope, I'm not trading these bets with your money. But more importantly, your points of logic can't even be connected. Why, after 6,121 calls for a housing bottom, and Cramer saying it will happen 250-something days from now at 2:30 in the afternoon, would you throw your call into the ring today using questionable logic? This is the kind of writing that makes people question your agenda.

    And another thing for SF Attorney - who the heck signs on to an anonymous blogsite under the name "Attorney"? Geez, my worst nightmare - to be stuck on a 5 hour flight between one guy who identifies himself as an attorney in the first 30 seconds, and another guy who sells insurance. Unless it is relevant to your post, nobody cares.     Reply
  • commenter
    staria
    Sep 08 04:39 PM
    Housing: Did We Learn Nothing from the Dotcom Bust? [view article]
    I think there is a lot of value in the Homebuilders sector longer term. Value the sector at Price to Sales. I assume that at the bottom of the cycle homebuilders are going to build let say 800tsd. homes p.a. The average price nationwide is around 200 tsd. USD. Makes around 160bn USD Top Down Sales. You pay for the sector as a whole right now ca. 40bn USD market cap (~ the same you pay for Merrill Lynch....). The average margin for the sector longer term is 8-10%. And for such a margin the stock market shold pay ca. 1 Price to Sales.... Buy the whole homebuilder sector right now ... and if you want an alpha trade, sale Merrill againts it.... Reply
  • commenter
    notsosmart
    Sep 08 04:00 PM
    My Website
    Housing: Did We Learn Nothing from the Dotcom Bust? [view article]
    the only bottom i know is the one i sit on.nothing is ever learned when greed is involved.the s& l mess of a few years ago was supposed to teach us things so this would not happen again.it will continue as long as there are people who are not held accountable.they un ethically make big bucks & run to the bank.who cares about decent folks left holding the bag. Reply
  • commenter
    ReEconomist
    Sep 08 03:05 PM
    My Website
    Housing: Did We Learn Nothing from the Dotcom Bust? [view article]
    Home prices got way disconnected from their fundamentals. In some areas they reached 10 times income levels. Now prices are correcting to be no more than 4 times income levels.

    Another phenomena that might cause prices to over-correct on the downside is the waning enthusiasm for buying and owning a house.

    With prices falling and not likely to appreciate anytime soon, a lot of people will be asking themselves why are they paying such a high premium for ownership over the cost of renting a comparable property? Up until the bust, most people would justify a premium for ownership cause they were getting a healthy amount for appreciation.

    It's more expensive to rent assets that depreciate rather they buy them. Houses have been cheaper to rent than purchase because of the appreciation component. What happens to prices when the appreciation component buyers assign to a purchase is zero?

    These days it's gotten difficult to ascertain whether there is a bottom forming or the bubble still has more to deflate. There will be a bottom and it could be the point where it becomes cheaper to rent then purchase.

    Check out the home value forecasting tools based on time-tested fundamentals. Sell the Ceiling and buy the Floor. The Ceiling is the top level of prices where the income to home price ratio exceeds the historical norm for the area. So when prices reach or exceed the Ceiling, you'd be financially wise to sell and definitely not buy.

    The Floor is the price level where buying makes sense due to the yield the rental income of the house could generate. If you buy the Floor there is limited downside risk to further price declines. UsHousingMeltdown.org/...
     Reply
  • commenter
    San Diego
    Lasik Doc
    Sep 08 10:24 AM
    My Website
    Currency Market Predicts Bailout Is the End of the Credit and Housing Crunch [view article]
    You make some good points, but I think you are a year or two early for a housing bottom.

    You noted "There is a lot of demand on the sidelines" quoted from Toll CEO, but the real demand on the sidelines is NOT to buy, but to SELL!
    For another take on this "demand" from a San Diego Realtor, one must read "San Diego Real Estate Pent-Up Demand .. It’s Real & About To Kick-In," this blog post was published on 7-14-08 on:
    www.brokerforyou.com/b.../

     Reply
  • commenter
    willb
    Sep 08 09:43 AM
    Currency Market Predicts Bailout Is the End of the Credit and Housing Crunch [view article]
    The reason the 'demand for housing' is on the sideline is simple.
    Joe Sixpack can not qualify for a fully amortized loan payment - he never could. You can not give him a 100% loan - he does not have the money skill set to handle home ownership.     Reply
  • commenter
    Kelly
    Lieberman
    Sep 08 09:08 AM
    My Website
    Currency Market Predicts Bailout Is the End of the Credit and Housing Crunch [view article]
    "You must acknowledge that the guys in that huge market are rarely wrong and most of them are “in the know” about the state of the economy much more than we are as ordinary investors. "

    How wrong you are!!! How many missed the mortgage mess in the first place?

    Ridiculous! Bailouts do not save us!!! Not when the US is broke!!! It costs the tax payers 200-300 BILLION DOLLARS!!! We are broke!! That's why we weren't paying our mortgages... Get it????

    DOMINO EFFECT!!!! Just wait. Bernanke said failure would destroy the global economy. Get it??? Just wait... it just stalls the inevitable.... Bernanke is a FOOL!!!!
    Print more money to pay for it...and our money won't be worth anything!
    Fools think that because the market might go up that it means it's a sign business likes Bernanke's decision and in the long run it digs us farther into our grave.

    Reply
  • commenter
    john s.
    gordon
    Sep 08 08:33 AM
    Housing: Did We Learn Nothing from the Dotcom Bust? [view article]
    you're right we learned nothing.

    i remember 1999 when all the boiler room 'brokers' were calling me (wall street journal sold mailing lists to anyone with a boiler romm over their head) saying jack you gotta buy this dotcom that dotcom etc. i always asked does this turkey have any earnings? they always said earnings don't matter jack at which point i hung up the phone.
    > jack     Reply
  • commenter
    Nikola
    Sep 08 05:21 AM
    Currency Market Predicts Bailout Is the End of the Credit and Housing Crunch [view article]
    I like this disease metaphor. Let me restate what I think you are saying.

    You are saying that because another bird flu patient now also has fever, the original patient is gonna get only better from here on.



     Reply
  • commenter
    Nikola
    Sep 08 05:13 AM
    Currency Market Predicts Bailout Is the End of the Credit and Housing Crunch [view article]
    Wishful thinking.

    The dollar didn't "rise" against the Euro. The Euro FELL against the dollar, as the financial crises finally started showing in European economies (GDP growth & inflation in power houses like Germany, France, Italy, UK).

    That's a big difference in perspective. That's like saying "dollar rose vs the Zimbabwean dollar, so we are at the bottom of the housing correction."

    Compare the dollar to a stronger currency, like the Chinese Yuan: finance.yahoo.com/curr...

    Barely any difference. Stopped falling. But the dollar may yet rise against the CNY too, as the Chinese economy numbers are not out yet. China will be hit too.

    What is happening is that the chaos in the US is spreading around the world like a disease. When Americans stop buying, it hurts everybody. But just because others are showing symptoms doesn't mean anything significant has happened to Patient Zero.

    Whether the bailout will succeed to persuade Americans to get out to the Mall and start shopping remains to be seen.

    And I really don't know where you see the housing "demand on the sidelines"? You talking about all the subprimers who got foreclosed and now want a new chance? I hope they don't get one..... we're where we are because of them.     Reply
  • commenter
    Jon Smirl
    Sep 07 10:34 AM
    My Website
    Housing: Did We Learn Nothing from the Dotcom Bust? [view article]
    Another group that got hurt badly were people doing involuntary moves that put down a large down payment. Aren't about 7% of transactions involuntary due to relocation, divorce, etc? This group wasn't speculating and lost their down payments.

    It's insane that the government is helping the nothing down crowd who were effectively renting. I know a builder who cleared $4M by renting out his spec homes, keeping the rent and not paying the mortgage, who ultimately lost them to foreclosure. Of course he knew he was going to lose them all along and fought in court for as long as he could.     Reply
  • commenter
    jimsep
    Sep 03 12:31 PM
    Homebuilders: NVR Buys Lots From Beazer [Housing Tracker] [view article]
    Toll is not stupid that way. He also changed his compensation to benefit significantly, no matter what happens.

    Where they are dumb is because they haqve no knowledge, or do not act on fundamental economics.     Reply
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