DIAMONDS Trust, Series 1 (DIA)

All Comments on DIA

  • commenter
    frankie
    cooper
    Oct 13 12:45 AM
    Why Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
    jason schwartzman - sounds like someone drank some hater-ade.
    quite a damning piece from someone who is relegated to writing hack jobs on seeking alpha. mad money is ENTERTAINMENT. when are people going to start taking responsibility for their own actions?? CNBC will get rid of him when his ratings no longer make his the most popular on the network, and not a moment sooner. don't be naive.

    could it be that through all of whats going on in the markets - this is the best article you could come up with? looks like you need to brainstorm a bit more next time....     Reply
  • commenter
    asleeper
    Oct 13 12:43 AM
    Why Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
    Stupid debate here. Sounds like all the haters hate Cramer because he says what he thinks. If you hate Cramer, you should hate all the market advisors, pundits, etc. They are all hacks, always advising everyone to stay in the market, just like the author. Ride the market down fools, There's always something good to buy. Someone needs to hold the bag. Don't put the stupid hack advisors out of a job, or they will no one to sell their worthless advice to.

    Cramer is no better or no worse than the rest of them. He just hams it up. Actually, he's better than most of them, because sometimes Cramer says sell! I can still remember the stupid hack advisors at big brokerage houses that finally downgraded Enron and Worldcom, two weeks after they declared bankruptcy. Until then, it was still "It's not dead. It's just sleeping..."

    Wake up people. No one makes it in the investment marketing business by saying anything other than buy or hold. You know your investment advisor is conning you if he doesn't say sell 25% of the time in a good market, and at least 50% of the time in a bad market.

    In a market like this, well, your guess is as good as mine, but how can you fault just one guy for sticking his neck out and saying sell, when a guy like Jim Rogers is saying the same thing. Is it your duty to ride this market down and lose you life savings "for the good of the market", whatever the heck that means?     Reply
  • commenter
    Alexander77
    Oct 13 12:38 AM
    The Crash of 2008 [view article]
    Your points make sense now lt us see what the markets think tomorrow, I hope you are right Reply
  • commenter
    ihl2003
    Oct 13 12:38 AM
    Why Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
    Does anyone think Cramer may have actually created a (temporary) market bottom by convincing so many people to sell and forcing such a large drop in the market? We all know there are 2 ways for the market to correct, Time and Price. I'd rather watch the price crash now so we can start another bull run than waste years waiting for the valuations and government internevtions to work themselves out.

    Maybe we should be thanking Cramer....     Reply
  • commenter
    constructe
    Oct 13 12:32 AM
    Lehman CDS Auction Ends, Now What? [view article]
    The CDS settlement doesn't mean much anymore because over the weekend the FED suspended market to market claiming that all institutions can give any value they want to their illiquid assets. I am sure they are not giving their $60 trillion in CDS values $0.10 which keeps it a nice black box until they declare bankruptcy or require a few $100 billion in bailout money. The action Friday and over the weekend are as synthetic as Japan before their market tanked for 20+ years. Reply
  • commenter
    constructe
    Oct 13 12:28 AM
    Can the Market Go to Zero? [view article]
    Well the SEC allowing banks to value all illiquid assets at anything they want like they did this weekend is a good start to making the market completely irrelevant. A 0 value is a completely unknown value the same way the $61 trillion in CDS contracts could make the $71 trillion in US assets - the $15 trillion in known debt add up to less than 0. I suppose it would be about correct give or take a few trillion. Reply
  • commenter
    SteveW
    (Market
    Forecaster)
    Oct 13 12:27 AM
    My Website
    Why Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
    To follow up further on my previous comment. Cramer did say to pull money out of the market, even at a loss. It's brilliant really. Anyone who has cash on hand when the S&P bottoms is going to have the opportunity to catch the next ridiculous bull market that shoots up parabolically like the last two bull markets; and, this time, when the market gets over inflated they'll pull money out earlier, or use puts and shorts to hedge their portfolio and get even more rich.

    Take what Cramer says, and expand it to use the investment tools that he can't use with the show. Can you imagine if you owned Apple at 200 and put a protective put in place?     Reply
  • commenter
    constructe
    Oct 13 12:24 AM
    The Case for a Bounce [view article]
    What good is PE when the SEC issues the directive that all institutions can value their illiquid assets at whatever they feel (which they did). And then declaure this is not suspending market to market since these assets are not marketable to start with. Righto... socializing banks is also capitalism because you put capital in them. Gees, when the world needs trust and transparency they throw the balance sheet in the fire and hope we say it's all better now. Reply
  • commenter
    carey_jim
    Oct 13 12:24 AM
    How to Handle a Snap-Back Rally (If We Get One) [view article]
    BxCapricorn:

    ProShares isn't bullet proof.

    SRS experienced a short squeeze last Friday and went from 154 to 114 in about an hour even though the DOW only went from about -400 to -100 during that same time frame.

    There is a lot of funny money out there and it isn't always possible to laugh.
     Reply
  • commenter
    SteveW
    (Market
    Forecaster)
    Oct 13 12:24 AM
    My Website
    Why Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
    Give the guy a break. Mad Money is bound by so many rules that handcuff an otherwise good trader. No shorting, no options, no currency, no futures; what do you expect the guy to do.

    If you hadn't heard it yet, buy and hold is dead!     Reply
  • commenter
    curious cat
    Oct 13 12:22 AM
    My Website
    What a Look Back at the Japanese Market Tells Us [view article]
    flyfarmer: there was a time when almost all the goods in england were made in america. they stopped producing goods because it was more economical to import them. they raised the standard of living in this country by consuming our goods. we are now returning the favor, by raising the standard of living for people around the globe. sure, we have lost some jobs. so did the english. we have devalued our money. so did the english. they no longer rule the waves and we have learned or should have learned in the last fifty years that we can no longer project power around the globe, at least, not on the ground. the english learned to adjust their life styles and still found a way to continue paying royal family members a yearly stipend. we can probably manage to do the same for our democrats. hang in there.
    Reply
  • commenter
    No Free Cake
    Oct 13 12:20 AM
    This Isn't a Bottom, It's a Disturbance in The Force [view article]
    FreeFalling: As to your comment about "just wait for Alt-A resets next year". It might not be as bad as you think. Example, my mortgage (not Alt-A tho) resets 2% over 6 month Libor which now is about 4% and a month ago was 3% and a year ago 5%. If I reset now my payment would be exactly the same as it has been! Reply
  • commenter
    Howard Sun
    Oct 13 12:16 AM
    My Website
    The Case for a Bounce [view article]
    PE is not a good measurement in this current state. Fundamentals DO NOT matter in the short-run. However, I also suspect there will be a bounce next week as shorts cover and as bailout plans begin to take some effect. However, the market will likely continue to fall after that. Reply
  • commenter
    Bo Peng
    Oct 13 12:10 AM
    Is the End of the Crisis Near? [view article]
    I sent this to SeekingAlpha on Saturday. They seem to have decided not to publish it. I'll just post it here for my own record: The DTCC press release today on Lehman CDS net settlement being only $6B doesn't change my view.
    ----------------------...

    10/21: The Bottom

    If anybody has anything to do with financial stocks but hasn't paid attention to an "obscure" thing called CDS, while such investor should not exist in theory, now is the time for such non-existent, hypothetical investors to take notice.

    Let's cut to the chase. On Oct 21, somebody A will have to pay somebody B $C in cash to settle CDS on Lehman. Estimates on C range from 100 billion to 400 billion. Group A will almost certainly include AIG, the biggest net seller of CDS, and many hedge funds, who have been using CDS selling as their cheap (HA!) financing source for the past few years. Besides single-name CDS specifically on Lehman, other credit derivatives such as CMCDS, CDS options, or Nth to Defaults, CDX indices and bespoke CDOs with Lehman in it will also settle, partially or in full.

    This will be arguably the biggest cash-exchange day in human history to date. I don't care how much tax-payer's money the government will use to bail them out, somebody will fail.

    Group B includes two types. One has Lehman bonds. They will be made whole by the settlement although Lehman bonds changed hands at 8.625 cents on the dollar at today's auction. The other doesn't have Lehman bonds. They bought naked CDS on Lehman. They will have a HUGE windfall -- for every dollar notional, they'll get over 91 cents. If they could collect, that is.
    Back to the more immediate concern. Who is A?

    You could pore over the CreditFixings' auction info and guess. I think a lot of people did just that today. They pounced on MS, GS, CS, and DB, who happen to be the biggest Physical Settlement Sellers (meaning they sold CDS on Lehman). JPM shot up the whole day, which happens to be the biggest buyer.

    But I don't know how productive this guessing game is. The dealers could be placing orders and requests for their hedge fund clients. Short of serious insider info, there's no way of knowing how much of those requests are for themselves vs clients. More importantly, physical settlement will almost certainly be just a small portion of the overall settlement size. Today's auction had $5.7B sell orders. Cash settlement will most likely be at least 10, maybe 100 times bigger than that. People learned the lesson from Delphi. Furthermore, it'd be very unusual for banks to have a huge net position on CDS, with the possible exception being their proprietary desks and funds. Again, most likely suspects are AIG and hedge funds.

    Now you know what the government bailout of AIG is for, the initial $85B and then the additional $37.8B (suspiciously precise isn't it?). Don't be surprised if the number goes up again before 10/21. Will tax-payers get the money back after 10/21? Fat chance. Is the money really for saving AIG or making sure others who bought CDS on Lehman will get their windfall? Take your pick.

    On to hedge funds. They knew how much they would need to pay since Lehman bankruptcy. Reportedly JPM, GS, and MS have issued massive margin calls to their hedge fund clients, which is consistent with their sell requests (except JPM who, being the clearing bank for Lehman, may have bought protection) at the ISDA auction and my suspicion that a big part of their requests are on behalf of their clients. Some hedge funds are forced to cash out. And since Thursday some apparently went shorting in desperation, trying to make a quick buck before the doomsday. The 900 point surge Friday 3PM in half an hour showed how nervous and desperate they are.

    In the meantime, of course, hedge fund investors must be withdrawing as fast as they possibly could, adding to their misery. Bankruptcy law will be the golden profession for many years to come.

    WaMu CDS settles on Nov 7. Its impact is expected to be much smaller, although nobody can be sure, as for all CDS. We may get some rough idea on its auction date, 10/23. If there're high-profile bankruptcies on 10/21 (banks, AIG), then market would be spooked and all eyes would turn to WaMu; otherwise it'd likely be a non-event in comparison.

    If there were bankruptcies of anything other than hedge funds on 10/21 (or 11/7, though less likely), then we could be in a serious chain reaction. But governments all over the world would band together to stop it. Governments may be stupid and inept, but they're not suicidal. Fed window will stay open late on 10/21. For banks (or AIG) who cannot post enough collateral, Paulson will be ready to buy stocks in a heartbeat. If the initial $250B runs out that day, they can let foreign sovereign funds to buy perferred stocks. It's a wonderful world.

    Moreover, I suspect the pending doomsday is a big reason why banks have shied away from lending to each other over the past few weeks. Nobody knows how much anybody else owes on that day. Coming 10/22, assuming no banks fail, it'd be a huge cloud gone. Back to business as usual, or as usual as it gets nowadays.

    Hedge funds' fire-sale exit may be creating a very rare buying opportunity in many financial markets (stocks, bonds, commodities, maybe even dreaded CDOs and mortgages). Two days ago I wondered if the bottom is near. Now I'm convinced the bottom will be around 10/21, if not earlier. The way back up may be painfully fast or painfully slow. But the crisis is essentially over unless we let the chain reaction take place.

    Then we'll only have to deal with the massive debt, recession, and inflation. Piece of cake.     Reply
  • commenter
    constructe
    Oct 13 12:02 AM
    Is There a Long Term Return to Long Term Normalcy? [view article]
    True. We need trust, not the SEC issuing orders like yesterday saying banks and institutions can declare whatever they want for assets no one will buy. They are the primary reason for a complete lack of trust in this market. If I'm a worthy company how do I prove it when the current rules let liars make their books look just as good as mine by marking junk as $0.80 on the dollar and hiding all their derivatives bets? Reply
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