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- Market Backdrop: 1990 vs. Today [view article]
- Dow 30 Price Targets - Too Much Optimism? [view article]
- Three Themes I'm Tracking for Signs of a Reversal [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- John Hussman: Is There a Possibility of $60 Oil? [view article]
- Is Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans? [view article]
- Diversification Can Be Everything [view article]
- Is it Time to Back Up the Truck? [view article]
- Second Quarter Earnings Season Is Upon Us [view article]
- The Screws Tighten on Apple Investors [view article]
- Modalities of the 'Imminent' VIX Spike [view article]
- Global Market Performance: Nowhere to Hide [view article]
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- A Look at Long-Term Stock Valuations
- Dow 30 Earnings Reports
- Is it Time to Back Up the Truck?
- Is Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans?
- Diversification Can Be Everything
- John Hussman: Is There a Possibility of $60 Oil?
- Three Themes I'm Tracking for Signs of a Reversal
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- Market Backdrop: 1990 vs. Today
- Modalities of the 'Imminent' VIX Spike
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Is Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans? [view article]
Go back and look at a chart of the dollar index. We have recently had a higher high on an upswing for the first time in TWO YEARS. What is the definition of trend? Would you not suppose that the first occurance in two years MAY be early signs of a reversal? Cut Kathy some slack. ReplyIs Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans? [view article]
What I forgot:In the link under the column 'non borrowed reserves' you see a minus 124 billion number, for years on a row the real reserves were about plus 40 billion so the FED has about 165 billion in 'grade investment' collateral.
This is also one of the ways to avoid down writings; when it is temporary gone as collateral and is on the balances of the FED, it is not marked to market value.
Conclusion: In reality lots of banks have to be under water when it comes to their reserves, without new capital the tax payer will likely pay the bill over and over again. Reply
Undone
Is it Time to Back Up the Truck? [view article]
You might be right but Sept is a bad month for the market so nobody will buy until after Sept, also you have a Presidential election where a Dem is expected to win but the big money guys are Republican.What do you want to bet the big money guys will be moving their money out of the country if Obama wins?
Its only when the profits start that big money will come back to the market.
So I suggest waiting until Sept to buy I'm hoping for more bad news so I can buy cheap. Reply
Is Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans? [view article]
I don't agree with, quote:The notion of the Fed being the lender of the last resort has helped US stocks and the US dollar recover.
And to Lex: Right now the FED has five programs of 'providing liquidity' to the markets, the total effect on de despository institutions (the commercial banks, not the investment banks) can be seen in the FED h3 release.
Look in the column 'non borrowed reserves', those are the real reserves of the commercial banks. Link:
www.federalreserve.gov.../
You are right with your 'we'll take you MBS crap in exchange for treasuries' but that is only the program for the primary (Federal bond) dealers.
In practice lots of that pleged collateral is worth only 70 cents on the dollar, stuff like that comes from the so called 'banking books' where mark to market value is not done very often.
(Banks have market books and bank books.)
So it is only a matter of time, the down writings will continue for a long long time because some easy calculations yield that there could be up to 10 trillion in US family home equity vaporize.
If from that loss only 20% makes it to the banking books we are looking at 2000 billion in down writings related to family housing only.
And what the value is all that collaterized debt obligation stuff is, nobody knows but it is still often 'investment grade AAA' rated and thus acceptable for the FED to take as collateral.
In case you still think the FED has it all under control because they understand the situation: At the end of 2006 Bernanke stated that the high housing prices were just a mere reflection of a strong US economy... Reply
Is Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans? [view article]
It seems to me that we are going to end up having a socialized financial system in which nothing can fail except investors and in this case bank stock investors. ReplyKashirin
Is Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans? [view article]
i guess Kathy Lien is biased.Probably holding a bag. day after day she publishes permabull articles that have nothing with reality.
Why she always appear on the frontpage with that useless staff?
What I see fed is cornered and that have no other choice but to inflate to save their bank buddies.
Lien please answer how is 1.5% from historic low corresponds with your statement about US$ recovery? Reply
Is Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans? [view article]
Hmn I think Bernanke words are kind of magic...maybe that's what this article writter means... ReplyIs Bernanke Hinting Something About the Fed's Rate Plans? [view article]
I'm curious - and freely admit to very limited knowledge here - about how the Fed's statements today help to strengthen the dollar. On their face these statements and the implied policy (in)action would seem in my view to weaken the dollar further. In essence, the Fed seems to be continuing to say, "we'll take your crap MBS in trade for treasuries." If this is the case, and if the dollar is as a result backed by near-worthless securities, and if furthermore the Fed intends to throw as many buckets of money out of their helicopters as possible now and into the forseeable future, how is it that the dollar gains strength?I am quite sure that there's something I'm missing here and would appreciate some education on this. No sarcasm implied despite my strong language. Thanks. Reply
Diversification Can Be Everything [view article]
This is an excellent teaching graph - thanks! ReplyDiversification Can Be Everything [view article]
Thanks for the chart. I'd seen (and saved) an earlier article about the THEORY of correlations changing over time, but this is the first place I've seen it quantified. Very helpful! ReplyDiversification Can Be Everything [view article]
It takes for the tide to go out to see who's swimming naked. smartinvestorafrica.co... ReplyJohn Hussman: Is There a Possibility of $60 Oil? [view article]
refreshing to see someone actually thinking about future supply-demand dynamics instead of the now oh-so-common dumb repetition of peak-oil-hype (where the only question discussed is when oil will break 200$, 400$,...) ReplyGlobal Market Performance: Nowhere to Hide [view article]
Dear Gentlemen, when I see all this discussion about market, value, correction, bottom, peak, etc I am sad to see the most important word of all - that is "citeras paribus".I was thought that the words mean - "everything else being equal".
I was told that all economic theories are based on "citeras paribus".
That got me to panic and travel all around the world to see any country where economy was run based on that principle.
Well guess what? Every country has hidden and sometimes not so hidden regulations to ensure that the economy is always "growing".
No country, including the USA has a free market.
Because of this manipulation of market, growth sometimes is artificially boosted. Look at the so called "Tiger" economies of South East Asia. These countries were artificially boosting their economy using borrowed money.
USA has done the same for the last decade by issuing Bank Securities as collateral. The scheme went too far including creating non-existing high priced housing market to attract foreign money into USA.
All this borrowing and artificially increased house value boosted the consumer economy.
Now the time is for all this to collapse as it has happened before in all other countries.
The bottom is yet to come. Because everyone who can afford is still holding on to their positions. The only way American Stock market can improve is to allow foreign takeover of American corporations.
But the US Government will not allow it.
This is exactly what happened in Korea with its Chaebols and Indonesian Conglomerates who refused to give up their ill gotten assets. Korea managed to destroy the power of Chaebols and recover its country. Indonesian could not.
Which model will play out in USA is yet to be seen. Till then don;t bet my friends. Reply
Dow 30 Price Targets - Too Much Optimism? [view article]
Only 3 of the 30 showed marginal gain YTD....and that was last week. Brutal year so far. ReplyThe Screws Tighten on Apple Investors [view article]
someone who claimed to be "long cash" now is the one who'll long cash until the market is at top. Reply