DIAMONDS Trust, Series 1 (DIA)
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- Decades of Negative Returns: A Long-Term Look at the Dow [view article]
- Cramer Should Be Suspended [view article]
- This Isn't a Bottom, It's a Disturbance in The Force [view article]
- Apocalypse Dow: The Search for Scapegoats [view article]
- 5 Reasons Stocks Will Keep Falling [view article]
- Using History to Plan Near-Term Investing [view article]
- Two More VIX Records [view article]
- How to Handle a Snap-Back Rally (If We Get One) [view article]
- Stop the Week, We Want to Get Off [view article]
- Fear Is Not a Strategy [view article]
- On a Return to Normalcy: Dow 8,500 [view article]
- There's Light At the End Of This Tunnel [view article]
Recent DIA Articles
- Decades of Negative Returns: A Long-Term Look at the Dow
- How to Handle a Snap-Back Rally (If We Get One)
- Using History to Plan Near-Term Investing
- Two More VIX Records
- Apocalypse Dow: The Search for Scapegoats
- This Isn't a Bottom, It's a Disturbance in The Force
- Goldilocks Dow and the Three Bears
- Fear Is Not a Strategy
- Stop the Week, We Want to Get Off
- On a Return to Normalcy: Dow 8,500
- Full List of Articles »
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How the Fed's Decision Impacts You [view article]
Maybe Mr. Coutenay doesn't know that the gold & silver ETFs are used by manipulators who short sell (probably naked shorts) to bring gold & silver prices down. I would never trust my money to GLD or SLV. This is all being investigated now and someone will be going to jail. I hope.Otherwise a good article. Reply
WRONG,
Right,
Left-Right
Inflation Fears Are Overblown [view article]
When Business Finishes compensating, FOR OverHead, Cost of Operations, Truly Prices on EVERYTHING will Increase Substancialy. All due to the Cost of OIL as a Raw Material in so many Products and as ENERGY for the Manufacturing of everything. If Businesses can't recoup EXPENSE of Operation, (Airlines, etc)GM,Ford BankRuptcy and then More Pressure on the Financial System. We are in UNCHARTED TERRITORY. The IOUSA lifestyle HAS ALREADY STARTED CHANGING, just getting Started and look Out for the NO HAVES! Can't Print Money but so long and the Average Person will Realize what is going On. ReplyInflation Fears Are Overblown [view article]
The article is not contrarian, but very mainstream. The media is using the bogus government numbers, and swallows the governments party line that although inflation is in a slight uptrend, the expectations going forward are for inflation to moderate.This is the majority view of the Fed, of Bernanke, or many Wall Street firms, and of the vast majority of media reporting. Then, the author goes onto repeat this mainstream consensus view as somehow contrarian.
In fact, almost everything the author says is incorrect. The contrarian view is that money supply growth has exploded and that inflation going forward will be much worse. This is not reported in the mainstream media, and isn't even acknowledged as a possibility by the fed.
The facts that the author uses to suport his claims are mostly either irrelevant, or incorrect. For example, lack of wage growth is real, but is not necessary for inflation. Wages can rise with very little inflation, and wages can fall in real terms (as they are now) with real substantial increases in inflation.
Globalization is keeping wage growth in check, but global money supply growth is causing global inflation.
Those who think for themselves and care to dig deeply into the numbers, and arent afraid to go very far out against the herd will see that stagflation is a real phenomenon that is likely here, and liikely to get worse. Real inflation is much more than twice what the government reports. Reply
Lieberman
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
Sbenard-Google: tent cities LA
You will find a YouTube video at what the BBC is reporting... I don't have to move to Cuba to disagree with Republican policy....or to find a vision of the 3rd world in our own backyard. Reply
Inflation Fears Are Overblown [view article]
Anyone who says there need be no inflation fears is wet behind the ears. This kind of MBA dance with graphs and numbers belies the obvious fact: a government that spends outrageously more than it takes in and a people willing to put up with it end up with green printed toilet paper for currency. And THAT"S inflation! ReplyThe Week Ahead: I Called the Bottom [view article]
Hey Marcos, we closed at 11456 today....are you going to call another low? Please! I beg you to get back up on that high horse. You looked so silly up there.:) Reply
Inflation Fears Are Overblown [view article]
One big factor the author didn't mention is housing, that has been deflationary in the past two years, counteracting food and energy prices. If Congress succeeds in pumping $300B with the mortgage rescue bill to stop the housing slump, that would be inflationary. ReplyInflation Fears Are Overblown [view article]
A number of your examples for deflation are a result of short term circumstances (Excess inventory of trucks and suv's driving down prices, excess lumber from lesss home starts driving down furniture prices). Just something to keep in mind. ReplyIs the Equities Party Over? [view article]
To put aside the validity of the article's conclusion for a moment, take this quote:"[the DJIA is] very vulnerable to a big correction. Few stocks would be spared in such a downdraft. Do you have a slightly greater appreciation for technical indicators?"
This is a circular argument: Technical indicators make a significant prediction, therefore technical indicators must be correct. Reply
borenstein
The Global Economy: U.S. vs. World Growth [view article]
All said and done ,U.S is still the global locomotive.It is our search for a more cost effective output zones ,that has allowed India and China to boom . Emerging Latin American economies are dependant on the U.S as well-remember NAFTA?As the consumers in the emerging economies have learned to utilize credit ,two things have occured
A) the consumer per capita debt in emerging market economies is at the record.
B) the emerging markert economies have gained momentum.
For sure the current U.S economic deceleration did not have the full impact on emerging market economies (lag)-but it will . In addition as the massive commodity speculation contributed to a record spikes on commodity prices,the emerging"economie... with the natural resources have benefited greatly.There should be no doubt that the U.S economic trends are still responsible for the global economic trends. I dont want to hear anymore about the mortgage delinquencies,that was an issue I was warning about in June of 2005 (Bloomber interview with Mark Gilbert) and again in the Bloomber interview (TV) with Brian Sullivan.
Various U.S agencies and the FED are still trying to address some of the "mortgage"is... real risks exist outside of the U.S ,because these risk issues were not addressed yet. In the period ahead we will see some key economic/geographic zones imploding causing massive inflows into the dollar assets.I am glad that CIBC referrs to the age of scarcity -but it is only a mirage caused by unprecedented commodity speculation. Reply
Avoid Options on Inverse Index ETFs [view article]
What about arbitrage between options on the index itself and options on the inverse index? I haven't done any analysis on this... just wondering if there's something there. ReplyIs the Equities Party Over? [view article]
In a May 5 article on SA, I advised investors to sell the market (Stay Clear of Traditional Asset Classes)seekingalpha.com/artic...
At the time, the Dow was around 13,100.
Reply
arter
The Global Economy: U.S. vs. World Growth [view article]
In your third slide and comment there you seem to be using growth and over all demand interchangeably. I am sure you are aware that is to different things and that the US consumes far more resources than China. This also explains why they have a higher growth rate.The average US consumer for example consumes 25 barrel equivalents of oil per year while China is estimated at between 1 and 2. It would be quite easy for them to show phenomenal growth over a short period and still consuming nothing close to what we consume. So for every 1% reduction in the US you would need a 12% increase in China for demand to remain static.
There is an old saying that still holds true, "When the US sneezes the world catches a cold."
Reply
Warming
Examiner
How the Fed's Decision Impacts You [view article]
Good Article. The Fed is clearly keeping interest rates low to bail out the banks. Inflation will eventually start to take up the price of assets like houses and then all the mortgages and lines of credit become good again.Someone will have to pay for this. The government is effectively debasing our currency so people with savings, bonds, or fixed incomes will fare the worst. Owning real assets as the author described seems like good protection to me. I am currently looking for asset classes other than metals or oil that might offer protection from inflation. Was looking specifically at REITS. If anyone has on opinion on these, post an article or comment.
Reply
The Mother of All Central Banking Challenges [view article]
The proof:Dr. Leland James Pritchard (MS, statistics - Syracuse, Ph.D, Economics - Chicago, 1933) described (before it's existence, stagflation - 1958 Money & Banking
“The Economics of the Commercial Bank Savings-Investment Process in the United States” -- “Estratto dalla Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Econbomiche & Commerciali “ Anno XVI – 1969 – n. 7
“Profit or Loss from Time Deposit Banking” -- Banking and Monetary Studies, Comptroller of the Currency, United States Treasury Department, Irwin, 1963, pp. 369-386.
Reply