DIAMONDS Trust, Series 1 (DIA)
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- Eyes Off the Target [view article]
- GDP Shows Economy Is Far from Recession [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Why Core Inflation? [view article]
- September - Worst Month for Market Performance [view article]
- What's Pushing the Market Up? [view article]
- Options Trader: Friday Outlook [view article]
- I.O.U.S.A. [view article]
- Start Planning for a Hard Economic Landing [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
- Options Trader: Tuesday Outlook [view article]
Recent DIA Articles
- Options Trader: Friday Outlook
- Chart of the Day: Corporate Profits 2
- Eyes Off the Target
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- What's Pushing the Market Up?
- September - Worst Month for Market Performance
- Start Planning for a Hard Economic Landing
- GDP Shows Economy Is Far from Recession
- It's a Crowded Trading Environment
- Fed's Passive-Aggressive Tendencies
- Full List of Articles »
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Helicopter Ben to the Rescue [view article]
what, what, what??? We are talking about financial markets right?It started as a useful analogy and went somewhere else. Reply
The U.S. Economy: Remembering the Past Could Help Fix the Future [view article]
Even if the Fed managed to bail out private insurers, what would prevent the next bail out to occur again. Since the Fed would step in and save the day again. Let's continue the binge lending. ReplyHelicopter Ben to the Rescue [view article]
Ben's not doing too bad a job, considering mission impossible. Try catching up to a jet plane in your stick-shift economy automobile. High gear isn't enough. These modern planes from the most recent century- well, they fly. Maybe a couple of centuries ago planes didn't fly and an automobile of some kind could catch up. But hell, once a fast plane is flying in the air, it's hard to even catch up with a rocket-powered automobile.Automobile-based systems with nowhere new they're going are obsolete in the face of the power of more modern aerospace-level engineering. Reply
Fiscal Stimulus Package Won't Avert the Recession [view article]
I applaud the brave forecast. I myself would too have the courage to suggest the same. Bravo. ReplySchrader
Alpha's Not Earned From Riding the Tides [view article]
Disclosure update: I have sold out of the TLT puts and picked up C puts. ReplyAlpha's Not Earned From Riding the Tides [view article]
I have to agree with you one must wear a harness until some of the excess and leverage is washed out. I also believe you said it well above when you said its hard to beleive invesors are willin to ignore such negative factual economic news. I'll say it again, until we have transparency and discussion of how much GNMA has lost and the taxpayer now additionally owes, this crisis will not be over. ReplyThe U.S. Economy: Remembering the Past Could Help Fix the Future [view article]
Where are the criminal charges. The bankers are taking the world's economy down and they are sitting on their yachts blaming the fed. Reply1.25% in Fed Cuts and This is the Response? [view article]
Warburg has not capitalized their commitment. Bill Ackman will not 'lose his shirt' since he has ridden MBIA down from 80 to twenty and made much much more in the default swaps. You are losing money and your cocky attitude because you thought you were a stock picker and turned out to be a trend follower. 130,000 from ADP - even if they were reliable, that is pathetic nymbers for start of year hiring. Or did you miss the unemployment claims report. Anyway, go out and buy a suit and a tie, you are too old for high school proms. ReplyInvestors Get a Glimpse of the Future [view article]
Nobody has the right skill set for putting together a bailout plan.Tell me who has $200billion laying around they want to flush down a toilet? Seriously ...if you are going to lose the money anyway why give it to someone else to lose for you??
Finally, I think your 1.25% cut raised got you about 40 points on the S&P in 8 days. I barely lost anything on my ultra shorts!
Guess we can head back down again now! :) Reply
Financial Contagion and the Negative Feedback Loop [view article]
Vinny, do you think California's 10% across the board budgetary cut and inevitable layoffs will have any sort of decelerating effect on the national economy. I do not think state budgetary constraints have a chance of spreading to other states, because other states did not depend on big cash infusions from the real estate boom. I am wondering if you agree with me and if you think the growing list of commercial vacancies in states like California and Florida as well as a growing number of residential vacancies will impinge upon tax revenues, or the value of some of the CMBS that you have at the top of your list. I am a bit of a worrier, so if you think I am just a nervous nelly, I can understand. Anyway, good luck with the value investing - i am going to buy some Salesforce. com aka CRM and Baidu, because they have come down into my value range. ReplyFinancial Contagion and the Negative Feedback Loop [view article]
Well I guess you need an update....Risk of a Global Recession Following the U.S. Hard Landing?
Nouriel Roubini | Jan 30, 2008
It is now clear that the US economy is already into a recession that started in December 2007: the data on December employment, retail sales, manufacturing ISM, housing and other macro variables confirm it. And the 0.6% growth for Q4 GDP confirmed that sharp slowdown of the economy in Q4 and its tipping over into a recession by December. It may take –as usual – almost a year for the NBER to formally declare that a recession started; but when that decision is made it will be clear that the great US recession of 2008 started in December 2007 or – at best – Q1 of 2008.
At this point it is clear that the debate has shifted to how deep this recession will be, a mild one lasting two quarters as the new consensus claims or a deeper, longer recession – lasting at least four quarters – as I have been arguing for a while.
It is also clear now that this US recession will lead to a global economic slowdown – short of a global recession that would occur if global growth were to be below 2.5% - and to actual recession in a number of individual economies.
www.bloomberg.com/avp/...
The main points:
- the US has already entered a recession and this recession will be protracted and severe, more so than the mild recessions in 1990-91 and 2001;
- whatever the Fed does will be too little too late as you cannot resolve problems of insolvency with monetary policy and as it takes years to clear a glut of housing, consumer durables and automobiles;
- the rest of the world cannot decouple from a US hard landing; when the US sneezes the rest of the world catches the cold; and this time the US will have a severe case of pneumonia; thus expect significant contagion to the rest of the world; thus, there will be a significant global economic growth slowdown.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
Reply
Maybe Investors Should Fight The Fed [view article]
The main points:- the US has already entered a recession and this recession will be protracted and severe, more so than the mild recessions in 1990-91 and 2001;
- whatever the Fed does will be too little too late as you cannot resolve problems of insolvency with monetary policy and as it takes years to clear a glut of housing, consumer durables and automobiles;
- the rest of the world cannot decouple from a US hard landing; when the US sneezes the rest of the world catches the cold; and this time the US will have a severe case of pneumonia; thus expect significant contagion to the rest of the world; thus, there will be a significant global economic growth slowdown.
www.bloomberg.com/avp/...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... Reply
Maybe Investors Should Fight The Fed [view article]
I guess Cash is the way to go until Hard Landing coming soon...PHD in Economics from Harvard say it....Risk of a Global Recession Following the U.S. Hard Landing?
Nouriel Roubini | Jan 30, 2008
It is now clear that the US economy is already into a recession that started in December 2007: the data on December employment, retail sales, manufacturing ISM, housing and other macro variables confirm it. And the 0.6% growth for Q4 GDP confirmed that sharp slowdown of the economy in Q4 and its tipping over into a recession by December. It may take –as usual – almost a year for the NBER to formally declare that a recession started; but when that decision is made it will be clear that the great US recession of 2008 started in December 2007 or – at best – Q1 of 2008.
At this point it is clear that the debate has shifted to how deep this recession will be, a mild one lasting two quarters as the new consensus claims or a deeper, longer recession – lasting at least four quarters – as I have been arguing for a while.
It is also clear now that this US recession will lead to a global economic slowdown – short of a global recession that would occur if global growth were to be below 2.5% - and to actual recession in a number of individual economies.
Reply
The Anti Bubble Has Surfaced [view article]
"the profit who cried out in the wilderness"Maybe you meant "prophet"? I guess it doesn't matter, huh? I should take you seriously because...?
"The news media, those guys who always try to make a mountain out of a mole hill, are in never never land. They have help to convince the American public that a heck of a recession is here."
I heard that same garbage on Rush Limburger. There wouldn't be any problems if people would just not talk about problems. Right.
"...the extremely low inflation rate."
And what planet do you shop on?
"I have given the answer here many times before"
"If my words were more widely disseminated..."
"...the economy is actually in a boom time"
This article is a satire, right? You're pulling our legs, seeing if we get the joke. Yes, yes, very funny.
Reply
The Fed's Lose-Lose Decision [view article]
..when will a lack of liquidity become a crisis in real terms.. perhaps never.. ink and paper is all you need, along with the smoke and mirrors.. Reply