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Fri, Dec. 12, 3:27 PM
- Off 3.8% today to $57.68 per barrel, WTI crude oil (USO -3.4%) has tumbled 12% for the week, 16% since Thanksgiving when OPEC couldn't agree on production cuts, and nearly 50% since its peak for the year in mid-June.
- A bear market like this hardly needs an excuse to go lower, but today's cut in estimated 2015 oil demand by the IEA makes for a nice reason.
- Unsurprisingly, the XLE - down 1.3% on the session - is underperforming most sectors and the broad averages.
- On the bright side: The crash in oil prices appears to be boosting consumer sentiment which unexpectedly jumped to its highest level in seven years.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, CRUD, UWTI, USL, DWTI, UHN, DNO, SZO, OLO, OLEM, TWTI, XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Wed, Dec. 10, 3:49 PM
- OPEC no longer exists in any meaningful sense and crude prices will slump to $50/bbl over coming months as market forces shake out the weakest producers, Bank of America warns.
- Francisco Blanch, BofA’s commodity chief, says OPEC is “effectively dissolved” after it failed to stabilize prices at its last meeting, and “the consequences are profound and long-lasting.”
- At least 15% of U.S. shale producers are losing money at current prices, and more than half will be under water if U.S. crude falls below $55, the bank says, adding that the high-cost producers in the Permian basin will be the first to feel the pain and may have to cut back on production soon.
- Following the 40% drop in oil prices, "the bulk of the damage to the sector is now done," Deutsche Ban's Lucas Herrmann says, "but it's hard to see what's going to drive share prices higher."
- Nevertheless, Herrmann upgrades BP to Buy from Hold, citing the likelihood that its troubles in the Gulf of Mexico and Russia will see a turning point in 2015.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Wed, Dec. 10, 12:58 PM
- Energy stocks are slammed across the board as oil prices take another nosedive (I, II), with the losses heaviest on shares of small, U.S.-based oil and gas producers.
- “Financial leverage is being thrown out the window, and everything else is being purged as well,” says Simmons analyst Bill Herbert, who adds that cuts to production budgets in the coming year likely will mean more pain for oil service companies.
- Among the hardest-hit shares: TPLM -15.2%, CRK -12.4%, GDP -11.9%, NOG -9.5%, AREX -8.6%.
- Investors have been less quick to dump shares of integrated oil companies, but today they have been smacked too: XOM -2.8%, CVX -2.9%, COP -2.3%, BP -2%, RDS.A -2.2%, TOT -2.3%.
- Today's worst performers on the S&P 500 include OKE -8.2%, DNR -7.4%, NE -5.6%.
- Service companies also are down: SLB -2.6%, HAL -2.7%, WFT -6.6%, BHI -2%.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, XES, IEZ, PXI, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Mon, Dec. 8, 11:15 AM
- Brent crude slumps to a new five-year lows after Morgan Stanley cut its 2015 Brent forecast, saying prices could average as little as $53/bbl although its base case scenario was for $70; the firm's earlier outlook saw oil at $98.
- "Oil prices face their greatest threat since 2009," analysts Adam Longson and Elizabeth Volynsky say, with Q2 2015 likely marking the peak period of dislocation in the absence of OPEC intervention.
- Brent -3.4% to $66.71, WTI -3.1% to $63.81.
- Energy stocks are getting smashed again, exacerbated by ConocoPhillips' (COP -3.3%) 20% reduction of its 2015 capex plans to $13.5B.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, DIG, BNO, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, CRUD, IEZ, UWTI, PXE, USL, PXI, FENY, DWTI, PXJ, DNO, RYE, SZO, FXN, OLO, DDG, OLEM, TWTI
Fri, Dec. 5, 9:57 AM
- The American Petroleum Institute says it would accept proposed rules on pollution from oil wells if it heads off a broad federal standard for methane leaks.
- The lobby group says it is willing to meet EPA limits on the release of smog-forming compounds from hydraulically fractured wells; such rules are in place for gas wells, and the EPA is considering expanding them to oil wells.
- Environmental advocates are pushing the EPA to regulate methane throughout production and refining - not just when gas and oil are extracted from underground - as the only way to reduce the volumes of gas being leaked.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Wed, Dec. 3, 2:05 AM
- Falling oil prices sparked a decline of almost 40% in new well permits issued across the U.S. in November, with only 4,520 new well permits approved last month, down from 7,227 in October.
- New permits, which outline what drilling rigs will be doing 60-90 days in the future, showed heavy declines for the first time this year across the top three U.S. onshore fields: the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford and Bakken shale.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Tue, Dec. 2, 10:33 AM
- BofA Merrill Lynch downgrades the energy sector to Marketweight following OPEC’s decision to maintain rather than cut production, now seeing $70-$75 as Brent crude's 2015 range, while warning of value traps.
- "With the collapse in crude, the sector now trades at a 20% discount to the S&P 500, where it has historically traded in-line with the market," the firm says, "but further estimate cuts are likely to come, [as] prices are falling faster than earnings are deteriorating."
- Seeing WTI possibly falling as low as $50 in the coming month, BofA warns that "volatility in oil prices translates to volatility in earnings."
- For exposure to the sector, the firm prefers big, lower beta stocks such as Exxon Mobil (XOM +0.5%).
- Citi also cautions against assuming that oil prices have found a bottom, and wants to see a more thorough confirmation of a technical base of support before proclaiming anything more than the latest trading bottom; however, Citi's Scott Gruber recommends moving aggressively on oil services if WTI crude falls into the $50s - his top picks, in order, are Baker Hughes (BHI +0.1%), Halliburton (HAL -1.3%) and Weatherford (WFT +2.7%).
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, PXI, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Mon, Dec. 1, 12:21 PM
- Oil prices are rebounding, with both WTI and Brent crude up ~2%, but only a handful of energy stocks are rising.
- Exxon Mobil (XOM +1.4%) and Chevron (CVX +1.3%) are both up more than 1%, but the vast majority of energy stocks - led by Denbury Resources (DNR -8.9%), Newfield Exploration (NFX -7.6%) and Goodrich Petroleum (GDP -22.3%) - are seeing heavy selling.
- The SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE -1.2%) is lower despite gains in XOM and CVX, XLE’s two most heavily weighted stocks, as 38 of its 43 equity components trade lower; the ETF has now lost 7.5% since OPEC sent oil prices plunging by agreeing last Thursday not to cut production.
- Among XLE’s most actively traded components, Kinder Morgan (KMI -3.3%), Halliburton (HAL -3.4%), Transocean (RIG -6.1%) and Schlumberger (SLB -2.1%) are sharply lower.
- Other big decliners include BBEP -17.8%, SD -12.1%, SN -13%, CWEI -8.8%, CPE -14.6%, EXXI -18.9%, LRE -22.8%, REI -16.9%, SSE -15.3%.
- Other ETFs: ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Fri, Nov. 28, 12:52 PM
- "OPEC, like Rockefeller, ultimately damned itself," writes Wolfe Research's Paul Sankey. He doesn't see oil demand ratcheting upwards because of the drop in oil prices; instead, he says, the market will only clear at the point of U.S. supply growth destruction.
- This could take months and a price of around $50 per barrel ... "And then we squeeze radically higher. As a result, the world accelerates its move away from oil."
- "This is going to be volatile, and we can't understand how that helps the Saudis. Volatility sells Teslas."
- WTI crude (NYSEARCA:USO) tried bouncing earlier, but is now lower by 8.5% at $67.43 per barrel. The Energy Select SPDR (XLE -6.6%) is also set to close today's shortened session on the lows.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, DIG, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, CRUD, IEZ, UWTI, PXE, USL, FENY, PXJ, DWTI, DBE, DNO, PSCE, RJN, RYE, SZO, FXN, OLO, JJE, DDG, ONG, RGRE, OLEM, TWTI, UBN
Fri, Nov. 28, 7:25 AM
- OPEC yesterday decided to hold production numbers despite the bear market in oil. WTI crude is down about $5 per barrel to $69.
- A premarket look at the top 10 holdings of the XLE: Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) -4.1%, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) -4.1%, Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) -4.6%, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) -4.4%, EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) -4.3%, Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) -4.8%, Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) -4.3%, Haliburton (NYSE:HAL) -4.7%, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) -5%, Williams Companies (NYSE:WMB) -1.6%.
- ETFs: ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, PBW, GASL, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, QCLN, IEZ, PXE, PXI, FENY, PXJ, PSCE, RYE, PUW, FXN, DDG, HECO
Wed, Nov. 26, 1:05 PM
- The EPA formally proposes reducing ground-level emissions limits to 65-70 ppb from their current level of 75 ppb, and says it will take comments on possibly cutting limits to 60 ppb, a standard favored by environmental and public health groups.
- The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers warns, “This regulation promises to be the most expensive in U.S. history," which it says could lead to millions of jobs lost and hundreds of billions of dollars every year in costs to U.S. businesses.
- Back in 2011, the EPA itself estimated that such a standard could cost businesses as much as $90B/year; in the new proposal, the EPA estimates costs of no more than $15B in 2025.
- ETFs: XLE, XLU, ERX, VDE, IDU, KOL, OIH, VPU, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, FENY, PXJ, RYU, UPW, RYE, FUTY, FXN, FXU, SDP, DDG
Wed, Nov. 26, 3:35 AM
- In the latest attempt to curb emissions of ground-level ozone, commonly known as smog, the Obama administration will introduce new legislation today which is expected to force power plant and factory owners to install expensive technology to clean the pollutants from their smokestacks.
- Next year, the EPA is expected make two more Clean Air Act rules final aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired power plants.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, KOL, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Thu, Nov. 20, 11:59 AM
- With crude at $75/bbl - the price Goldman Sachs says will be the average in next year's Q1 - 19 U.S. shale regions including parts of the Eaglebine and Eagle Ford in Texas are no longer profitable, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
- At least a dozen companies including Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR) and SandRidge (NYSE:SD) said on conference calls in the past month that they would reduce capital spending plans because of lower prices; Apache (NYSE:APA) said today it would cut spending in North America by 25% while still increasing production 8%-12% vs. an annual average of 29% since 2009.
- By contrast, the biggest-producing fields - North Dakota's Bakken and the Permian and Eagle Ford in Texas - pump a combined 4.7M bbl/day, and those regions remain economic at $55-$65/bbl.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, XOP, FCG, ERY, DIG, GASL, DUG, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, GASX, PXE, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Fri, Nov. 14, 3:25 PM
- Crude oil futures jumped on speculation that OPEC may cut its oil production in a bid to stabilize plunging prices; West Texas crude oil rose $1.75, or 2.4%, to $75.90/bbl, bouncing off multiyear lows yesterday.
- The crude oil effect also sparked a reversal in gold prices, which rallied $24.10, or 2.1%, to settle ar $1,185.60/oz., its highest close since Oct. 30; a stronger U.S. dollar vs. the Japanese yen and the euro also sparked demand.
- ETFs: GDX, NUGT, USO, AGQ, XLE, OIL, DUST, SIL, USLV, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, ZSL, SCO, UGL, GLDX, DGP, XOP, ERY, GLL, DIG, BNO, UGLD, DZZ, DTO, DBO, DUG, SLVO, GLDI, IYE, DSLV, IEO, SLVP, CRUD, DGL, DBS, DGZ, RING, DGLD, SGDM, USL, PXE, UWTI, FENY, PXJ, PSAU, DWTI, DNO, TBAR, USV, RYE, UBG, FXN, GLDE, SZO, GYEN, BAR, OLO, GEUR, BARS, DDG, GGBP, OLEM, TWTI
Thu, Nov. 13, 3:20 PM
- U.S. crude oil prices break below $75/bbl for the first time in more than three years, brushing aside an IEA report showing a surprise 1.735M barrel inventory drawdown as well as remarks by the Saudi oil minister dismissing talk of an oil price war among producers.
- West Texas crude settled today at $74.21/bbl, -3.9% and breaking below an important support level; during the past three years, futures have tested but not broken through that level three times.
- Brent crude recently was trading below $78, -3%.
- Global oil majors are all lower: COP -1.9%, BP -1.4%, CVX -1.4%, XOM -1.1%, TOT -0.9%, RDS.A -0.7%.
- Oil services companies and offshore drillers suffer even sharper drops: SDRL -4.4%, SLB -4.2%, HAL -3.9%, BHI -3.9%, RIG -3.8%, DO -3.5%, NBL -2.9%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, DIG, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, DUG, XES, IYE, IEO, CRUD, IXC, IEZ, PXE, USL, UWTI, IPW, FENY, PXJ, UHN, DWTI, DNO, RYE, FXN, SZO, GNAT, OLO, DDG, FILL, OLEM, TWTI
Tue, Nov. 4, 1:10 PM
- An big outlier to the downside in today's session is the energy sector (XLE -2.4%) as crude oil tumbles another 2.5% to a 3-year low of $76.80 per barrel, and brings heating oil and gasoline along with it.
- As comparison, the S&P 500 is down just 0.4%.
- Now off 21% from its all-time closing high on June 23, the XLE is down 5% YTD, making it the only ETF tracking the 10 benchmark S&P sectors to be in the red in 2014 (the S&P 500 is up 8.4%).
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, OIH, ERY, XOP, DIG, DUG, XES, IYE, IEO, IEZ, PXE, FENY, PXJ, PSCE, RYE, FXN, DDG
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