DNKN - News and Analysis from Seeking Alpha

McDonald's: Where's The Beef Behind This Valuation?

Markos Kaminis — Fri, 17 May 2013 13:21:42 -0400

By Markos Kaminis (Wall St. Greek):

McDonald's (MCD) reported its April same-store sales results a couple weeks ago, noting same-store sales deterioration in 2 of 3 major market segments and just 0.7% growth in the U.S. The company's international expansion was supposed to add growth to the McDonald's story, but it was sorely missing in April. So where's the beef then behind the stock's recent climb?

Last Friday, we learned that Yum! Brands' (YUM) China Division experienced a 29% same-store sales decline, so McDonald's was not alone in the weakness it experienced in what was supposed to be an important growth market. YUM's KFC brand in China saw impact from national avoidance of chicken due to the spread of a new strain of avian influenza, H7N9.

McDonald's April same-store sales were down 2.9% in the company's Asia/Pacific, Middle East & Africa (APMEA) segment. The company said sales were soft due to avian influenza fears mostly

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Get An Investment Buzz From Coffee: Rust, ETFs, Coffee Stocks, And Future Price

Gary Bourgeault — Mon, 13 May 2013 08:44:28 -0400

By Gary Bourgeault:

An increase in coffee or roya leaf rust in Central America has generated concerns on how it could have an effect on coffee production in the region, as well as the resultant coffee prices that may accompany any possible shortages.

It must be understood that the coffee rust problem is in relationship to Arabica coffee plants and not robusta coffee. Arabica coffee is what is usually offered in coffee stores. Robusta coffee is normally associated with instant coffee, although "premium robusta" can be found in specialty espresso blends at retail outlets. In this article, the primary focus will be on arabica coffee.

An interesting change in the instant coffee market should provide another growth area for arabica beans, as the increasing demand for soluble coffee has resulted in businesses adding arabica beans to robusta beans to create a higher quality blend. That will boost demand for arabica beans

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Dunkin' Brands Group, Inc. - Analyst/Investor Day

Tue, 07 May 2013 15:00:00 -0400

Dunkin' Brands (DNKN)

May 07, 2013 8:00 am ET

Executives

Stacey Caravella - Director of Investor Relations

Nigel Travis - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Jonathan Kraft

Scott Murphy - Chief Supply Officer and Senior Vice President

Giorgio Minardi - President of International Operations

Paul E. Twohig - Chief Operating Officer of U.S.

Paul C. Carbone - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer and Senior Vice President

John H. Costello - President of Global Marketing & Innovation

Stan Frankenthaler - Director of Culinary Development and Executive Chef

William M. Mitchell - President of Baskin-Robbins U.S. and Canada

Analysts

John S. Glass - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

John W. Ivankoe - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division

Stephen Anderson - Miller Tabak + Co., LLC, Research Division

Jeffrey D. Farmer - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Jeffrey Andrew Bernstein - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Andrew M. Barish - Jefferies

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Revisiting Starbucks

Delian Naydenov — Tue, 07 May 2013 09:45:04 -0400

strong>By Delian Naydenov:

Introduction

Starbucks' (SBUX) common stock is outperforming significantly the returns of the S&P 500 Index and competitors Dunkin' Brands Group (DNKN) and Panera Bread (PNRA) since my last discussion of the company in February 2013 (see graph). Starbucks is benefiting from its latest acquisitions (Evolution Fresh, La Boulange and Teavana), international and domestic growth, and use of the Starbucks cards. Importantly, Starbucks happened to be a leader in the specialty coffee category. According to the quick service restaurant industry research firm Technomic, specialty coffee is up 10% on menu offerings in the past two years. Starbucks' performance should continue due to the momentum the company has going from full integration of its acquisitions, continued growth in China/Asia, the commodity tailwind expected in 2013 and 2014, and higher growth in the consumer packaged goods channel.

Valuation and fundamentals

During the second fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2013, Starbucks

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Dunkin' Brands Group Management Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Thu, 25 Apr 2013 18:00:09 -0400

Dunkin' Brands Group (DNKN)

Q1 2013 Earnings Call

April 25, 2013 8:00 am ET

Executives

Stacey Caravella - Director of Investor Relations

Nigel Travis - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Paul C. Carbone - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer and Senior Vice President

John H. Costello - President of Global Marketing & Innovation

Analysts

David Palmer - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

John S. Glass - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

David E. Tarantino - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division

Andrew M. Barish - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division

Michael Kelter - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Jeffrey D. Farmer - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

John W. Ivankoe - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division

Will Slabaugh - Stephens Inc., Research Division

Joseph T. Buckley - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Jeffrey Andrew Bernstein - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Presentation

Operator

Good

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Dunkin' Donuts Will Munch On More Growth This Quarter

Trefis — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 15:42:47 -0400

By Trefis:

Dunkin’ Brands (DNKN) will announce its first quarter earnings on April 25. The stock has climbed more than 10% in the last three months, buoyed by strong full year earnings and a general optimism about the overall economy. In addition to Dunkin’ Donuts, the company also operates the Baskin-Robbins brand.

Dunkin’ Donuts’ American operations contribute around 75% to the stock price as per our estimates. The company is expanding in the U.S. and added 291 restaurants in 2012. This year, it will accelerate the openings to about 330-360. The Western part of the country and states such as Texas and Mississippi represent huge untapped markets with an expansion potential. In total, Dunkin’ plans to double the number of its outlets to 15,000 in the next 20 years. [1]

We expect the same-store sales growth to average about 3.5% in the long run helped by a combination of pricing and an

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Which Franchise Is The Best Bet For Your Money

BubbleBustInvesting — Sun, 21 Apr 2013 01:48:47 -0400

By BubbleBustInvesting:

Three popular franchises, Panera Bread (PNRA), Dunkin' Brands (DNKN), and Starbucks (SBUX) are reporting Q1 earnings this week. Analysts expect Panera Bread to report earnings in the range of $1.68 to $1.58; Dunkin Brands in the range of 0.32 50 0.28; and Starbucks in the range of 0.52 to 0.47.

Company	High	Mean	Low
Panera Bread	1.68	1.65	1.58
Dunkin Brands	0.32	0.29	0.28
Starbucks	0.52	0.48	0.47

All three companies, especially Panera Bread and Starbucks have a tradition of beating analyst estimates, rallying after each earnings report. Will the two companies keep up with the tradition this time around?

It is hard to say. What we can say, however, is that Starbucks is a good bet for value investors, as is McDonald's (MCD) which reported Q1 earnings last week, while Panera Bread and Dunkin' Brands are better bets for growth investors.

Company

Forward PE

Operating Margins

Qtrly Revenue Growth

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McDonald's Stock: Buy Or Sell?

BubbleBustInvesting — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 14:40:28 -0400

By BubbleBustInvesting:

There was bad news and good news in McDonald's (MCD) Q1 report published on Friday morning. The bad news is that the company missed analyst expectations by 1 cent. The good news is that both earnings and revenues continued to climb in this difficult global economic environment. What is even more remarkable is that McDonald's continues to grow after so many years and so many challenges from all sorts of health and weight conscious groups maintaining high operating margins, and Return on Assets, which make its stock a buy for value investors. How does the company's leadership do it? What are the challenges?

Company	Forward P/E	Operating Margins	Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy)	Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy)	Return On Assets (ROA)
Starbucks (SBUX)	22.32	13.66%	10.60%	13%	14.29%
McDonald's	16.25	30.33	1.90	1.40	15.29
Dunkin' Brands Group (DNKN)	21.33	38.45	-4	196.20	19.64
Panera Bread (PNRA)	22.19	13.29	15.30	33.60

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Cramer's Lightning Round- Kicking Myself Over Toll Brothers (4/16/13)

SA Editor Miriam Metzinger — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 07:05:32 -0400

By SA Editor Miriam Metzinger:

Stocks discussed on the Lightning Round segment of Jim Cramer's Mad Money Program, Tuesday April 16.

Bullish Calls:

Toll Brothers (TOL): "We are kicking ourselves. The charitable trust should have been in there buying at $30. That's okay. It is still a Buy."

ImmunoGen (IMGN): "It doesn't have a good royalty arrangement on one of its drugs, but it has other drugs. Go ahead and pull the trigger."

Dollar Tree (DLTR): "I like Dollar Tree."

Dunkin' Brands (DNKN): "How can I recommend Krispy Kreme when I have Dunkin' Donuts down from its high?"

MDU Resources (MDU): "It has a good yield and is a steady business."

Genworth Financial (GNW), Radian (RDN): "People don't realize Genworth has a Radian type of business, and Radian is one of my favorite specs right now. Both (GNW and RDN) can go higher."

Exelixis (EXEL): "This is a good

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Dunkin' Brands: Earnings Preview, 2012 Review, And 2013 Guidance

Joey Solitro — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 12:21:04 -0400

By Joey Solitro:

Dunkin' Brands Group (DNKN) owns two of the most recognizable brands in the world, Dunkin' Donuts and Baskin-Robbins. It operates over 17,000 locations worldwide, making it one of the industry giants. This company went public on July 26, 2011, and has surged nearly 100% since. It is set to report first quarter earnings, so let's take a deeper look.

The brand overview

Dunkin' Donuts is the world's leading baked goods and coffee chain. There are over 10,000 Dunkin' Donuts locations worldwide, with more than 7,000 in North America alone. The brand is determined to continue expanding with an incredible growth model.

Baskin-Robbins is the largest ice cream chain in the world that sells ice cream, specialty desserts, and various beverages. It operates nearly 7,000 locations worldwide, with just 2,400 being in the United States. Baskin-Robbins is not going to grow nearly as much as Dunkin' Donuts, but it has

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3 Reasons Why You Should Hold On To Starbucks

StockRiters — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 16:20:57 -0400

By StockRiters:

Starbucks (SBUX) is a global name in the coffee business. Its growth has been tremendous over the past few years, and it has clearly been visible in its stock price movement after the stock fell to the level of around $10 in the early 2009 due to economic meltdown. At that time, people were not willing to spend $4 on coffee amidst unemployment fears, leading to a drop in sales for the company that ultimately resulted in the fall of its stock price.

The company closed down its inefficient stores and started diversifying to other beverages and food in its menu. Since then the stock has given its investors a return of a whopping 500%. Currently, the trailing 12-months P/E ratio is 31.5 and the forward 12-months P/E ratio is 25.5. These are higher than the P/E ratio of restaurants and bar industry average and even more than the

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Dunkin' Donuts Takes On The Egg McMuffin

Glen S. Woods — Wed, 10 Apr 2013 18:00:06 -0400

ByGlen S. Woods:

Well maybe not just yet, but a handful of Dunkin' Donuts (DNKN) stores in Eastern Massachusetts is test-marketing a new breakfast item consisting of bacon and eggs sandwiched between a sliced sugary glazed donut. While this might sound like an indulgence one would find at a county fair, the caloric content is not that much higher than the McMuffin. McDonald's (MCD) egg McMuffin has 300 calories; a Dunkin' Donut sandwich comes in at 360 calories, with 260 of the calories coming from the glazed donut. While DNKN spokesperson claims that the company does not have plans to introduce the product more widely, there may be some sound business sense in its testing a new breakfast product; according to Men's Health magazine, breakfast has accounted for almost 60% of restaurant industry growth.

This is not the first time fattening breakfast or lunch food has found its

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Dunkin' Brands Group's Management Presents at Morgan Stanley Retail & Restaurant Conference (Transcript)

Fri, 05 Apr 2013 12:40:02 -0400

Dunkin' Brands (DNKN)

Morgan Stanley Retail & Restaurant Conference

April 05, 2013 9:20 am ET

Executives

Paul C. Carbone - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer and Senior Vice President

Weldon Spangler - Vice President of Dunkin' Donuts Operations for U.S. and Canada

Analysts

John S. Glass - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Presentation

John S. Glass - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Good morning, everyone. I'm John Glass. I'm Morgan Stanley's restaurant analyst. It's my pleasure to introduce our next fireside chat, Dunkin' Brands.

Directly to my right, to your left, is Weldon Spangler. Weldon is, I think one of the first times in front -- from an investor standpoint, he runs the U.S. operations or Vice President of Operations for the Dunkin' U.S., the whole of the country. So it's a pleasure to have you here. And directly to his right is Paul Carbone. Paul is the company's Chief Financial

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Starbucks: Anything But Blond

Nathaniel Matherson — Tue, 26 Mar 2013 14:12:19 -0400

ByNathaniel Matherson:

I have been bullish on Starbucks (SBUX) for some time now and in one of my earlier articles this year, I outlined my rationale for why the company has positioned itself for continued growth in the future. In that article, I highlighted the Teavana acquisition, falling coffee prices, and expansions into China and India as the primary drivers for the company. In this article, I would like to give some updates as well as take a look at some recent news.

China's Coffee Craze

The company has been incredibly positive when it comes to its long term future in China. By 2015, it is expected there will be over 1,500 locations in 70 different cities, making China the second largest market for the country. Currently, there are over 800 locations, and the company has begun expanding into the secondary and tertiary cities. In the Annual Meeting of Shareholders

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Starbucks Is Magical, But Is It A Good Value?

Insider Monkey — Thu, 21 Mar 2013 06:24:40 -0400

By Insider Monkey:

by Matt Doiron

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) continues to report strong growth numbers, with stores being packed and lines being long despite its already ubiquitous presence in major U.S. markets and a supposedly cash-strapped middle-class consumer. In the fiscal quarter ending in December (the fourth of the coffee chain's fiscal year), Starbucks experienced an 11% increase in revenue compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year, including 9% growth at company-operated stores and same-store growth of 6%. Earnings were up 13% as the company's net margins actually increased. In that one quarter Starbucks generated over $1 billion in cash flow from operations (though a good chunk of that came from reduced inventories, which is not a sustainable source of cash) compared to less than half that figure in the previous Q1. With only about $250 million in capital expenditures, the company was able to repurchase over $400 million

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Dunkin' Donuts: Are All The Analysts In Florida?

Stephen Rosenman — Sat, 16 Mar 2013 21:52:48 -0400

By Stephen Rosenman:

You don't need to know a weatherman to know which way the wind blows...

Just ask Dunkin' Donuts' (DNKN) CEO Nigel Travis. Listen to his comments on Friday's J.P. Morgan Forum (and by the way, he plugs SeekingAlpha.com's thoughts about weather and restaurant sales):

But I think I would say that this is probably -- we haven't had the huge depths of snow that we had 2 years ago in the Northeast, but we've had more regular storms. It seems that we've have a storm every week. So I'd say it's probably similar to 2011 and I've never worked it out but I'd say that 150 basis points probably goes back the other way.

For those of you not living in the Northeast - the home of so many Dunkin' Donuts - Winter 2013 has been a horrible unending series of snowstorms. I've been hitched up to my snow

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Dunkin' Brands Group's Management Presents at UBS Global Consumer Conference (Transcript)

Thu, 14 Mar 2013 16:10:03 -0400

Dunkin' Brands (DNKN)

UBS Global Consumer Conference

March 14, 2013 10:30 am ET

Executives

Paul C. Carbone - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer and Senior Vice President

Analysts

David Palmer - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Presentation

David Palmer - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Well, good morning, everybody. I'm David Palmer, UBS Restaurant and Package Food Analyst. We're honored to have a Dunkin' Brands with us here today.

Joining us from the company are Paul Carbone, Chief Financial Officer; and Stacey Caravella, VP of Investor Relations. Thank you to Dunkin' for joining us today.

Paul joined Dunkin' Brands in August 2008 as VP of Financial Planning and Analysis. In June 2012, Paul was named Chief Financial Officer for Dunkin' Brands. In this role, Paul is responsible for the company's finance, investor relations strategy, loss prevention and information technology functions. Prior to joining Dunkin' Brands, Paul served as Senior

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Dunkin' Brands' Management Presents at 2013 Consumer & Retail Conference (Transcript)

Tue, 12 Mar 2013 16:00:06 -0400

Dunkin' Brands (DNKN)

2013 Consumer & Retail Conference

March 12, 2013 11:00 am ET

Executives

Paul C. Carbone - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer and Senior Vice President

Analysts

Joseph T. Buckley - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Presentation

Joseph T. Buckley - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Bank of America Merrill Lynch's restaurant analyst. I would be very pleased to continue our restaurant sleeve of the consumer conference. And a very good part of the day. We're moving from casual dining to coffee and ice cream, which is always good. So we're very, very pleased to have Dunkin' Brands present today, and I'd like to introduce the CFO of the company, Paul Carbone. Paul, thank you for joining us.

Paul C. Carbone

All right, thanks, Joe. All right, so we're going to go through a few slides, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. So we'll talk

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Dunkin' Brands' CEO Presents at J.P. Morgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Management Access Forum (Transcript)

Fri, 08 Mar 2013 18:20:06 -0500

Dunkin' Brands (DNKN)

J.P. Morgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Management Access Forum

March 08, 2013 10:30 am ET

Executives

Nigel Travis - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Paul C. Carbone - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer and Senior Vice President

Analysts

John W. Ivankoe - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division

Presentation

John W. Ivankoe - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division

John Ivankoe from JPMorgan, the restaurant analyst here, and I'm very happy to have Dunkin' Brands, which is one of my favorite corporations, especially as they chose us to lead their IPO about 2 years ago, which has been a very successful transaction, I mean, really, for all investors and constituents involved.

The company has sent Nigel Travis, who is their Chief Executive Officer, who's done an absolutely terrific job of focusing on franchise unit level returns in growing the business, I mean, really

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Invest In Coffee And Ditch The Grind

Stocks & Shares — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 22:14:09 -0500

By Stocks & Shares:

The current low price of coffee can be best exploited through the coffee exchange-traded notes iPath Pure Beta Coffee (JO) and the iPath DJ-UBS Coffee TR Sub-Index (CAFE). Investors will have to endure weakness in the markets and 0.75% fund expenses until prices increase to higher levels.

Unfortunately, many coffee companies that will benefit from the current low price of coffee are trading at price multiples that make them unattractive.

Current Low Coffee Prices

Robusta coffee increased to the highest level compared to the last four months in London due to a decrease in sales from Vietnam, the biggest grower of the variety, as a result of the Lunar New Year. According to Volcafe, a coffee unit of ED&F Man Holdings, Vietnamese farmers who are seeking higher prices are holding back beans and may increase "retention" after Tet, it is a festival that celebrates the Lunar New Year.

A broker

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