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Sunday, May 19, 9:52 AM There is no precedent for the current market, writes The Fat Pitch. Consider: 1) The S&P (SPY) has been up 56 of 88 trading sessions this year 2) It's up an uncorrected 24% since the post-election low - the longest streak in over 3 decades 3) The Nasdaq (QQQ) is on pace for a 7th straight up month, an occurrence with a 3-in-100 probability. Long term it's bullish, writes Ukarlewitz, as this sort of strength is rarely the end of a trend. Short term? Stay nimble. 44 Comments
Thursday, May 16, 10:10 AM More on Philly Fed: The big miss is another in a line of weak data points this morning. The decline was led by a steep drop in shipments to -8.5 from +9.1. Also notable is a big jump in inventories to +4.1 from -22.2. Employment worsened to -8.7 from -6.7. The percentage of firms reporting employment decreases was 22% vs. those reporting increases at 14% - a number sure to cross the desk of the FOMC doves this morning. Treasurys have had a tough May, but they're bouncing today, TLT +1.2%. The leveraged bear ETF: TBT -2.4%. Stocks give up early gains (DIA -0.2%). 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, May 14, 8:03 AM More from Tepper: "We're going to get this hyper-drive market," unless the Fed starts tapering its purchases, he says (referencing 1999), adding the June meeting wouldn't be a bad time to get started. He pulls out this chart from a recent FRBNY report, showing stocks remain cheap - the equity premium to bonds is as high as it's been in the last 50 years. 16 Comments
Tuesday, May 14, 7:52 AM Tepper stays bullish. Confounding gnomes who whispered the hedge fund honcho was turning cautious on stocks, David Tepper tells the CNBC crew the wave of liquidity that turned him bullish in the first place is getting even bigger. Fed tapering? So what, he says. The U.S. budget deficit over the next 6 months will only be $100B, while the Fed is scheduled to buy about $500B. That's $400B coming out of the bond market and going to investors who can buy more fixed-income, more real estate, more stocks. SPY erases losses and gets back to flat premarket. 11 Comments [Breaking News]
Monday, May 6, 8:40 AM Laszlo Birinyi ups his S&P 500 (SPY) target this year to 1,900, the index having already hit his original 1,600 guess. He says this year's bull market most resembles the patterns etched in 1982 and 1990, suggesting another 20% of upside. "In addition to the historical parallels, we still view sentiment as subdued and nowwhere approaching extremes." 11 Comments
Monday, April 22, 11:08 AM "When the cover of a major financial magazine features a cartoon of a bull leaping through the air on a pogo stick, it's probably about time to cash in the chips," writes John Hussman, commenting on Saturday's Barron's cover. Ryan Detrick notes the Barron's big money poll was decidedly more bearish 6 months and 1,000 Dow (DIA) points ago. 5 Comments
Friday, April 19, 9:52 AM Most stocks are higher in early trade, but big moves in big names are dragging key indexes. IBM -6.4%, GE -3.9%, McDonald's -2.2% are hurting the Dow (DIA -0.3%) following earnings. H-P -5.5% as Blackstone looked under the hood of the PC business and said "no thank you." Down 1.3%, Apple is capping the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ +0.4%). Comment!
Tuesday, April 16, 8:57 AM Stocks are "far from the overextended levels that prevailed at the prior peaks," says BAML, comparing the S&P 500 (SPY) today to March 2000 and October 2007. Earnings and dividend yields today are far higher; PE ratios, Price/Book, EV/EBITDA are all lower. "Third time a charm?" 1 Comment
Monday, April 15, 12:38 PM The S&P (SPY) and Dow (DIA) have continued to notch record highs, but small caps (IWM -3%) - which led the way higher for much of the year - rolled over a few weeks ago and are falling especially sharply today. Technicians fret. 1 Comment
Thursday, April 4, 7:06 AM Stock index futures (SPY +0.4%, QQQ +0.4%) post gains after the BOJ outdoes the Fed with the breadth of its stimulative efforts. The Nikkei's 3.2% gain looks even more impressive when considering the index was off 2.3% before the central bank announcement. DXJ +4% premarket. Comment!
Monday, April 1, 1:32 PM Technicians spot a troubling divergence, with the Russell 2000 (IWM) falling 1.3% to start the new quarter while the DJIA (DIA) remains flat. Some believe small-caps lead - both on the way up as with the current bull run, and on the way down - and today's relative decline continues a pattern begun last week. 2 Comments
Tuesday, March 26, 10:50 PM Sentiment indicators tend to work best at bottoms, writes The Fat Pitch, but it doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention to what's become a bit of froth in the bull camp. Low cash levels, rising margin debt, prominent bears capitulating, and the return of the Dow 36K crew have been well-documented. One you might not have heard of is the Canadian equivalent of Time screaming "BUY!" on its cover. 3 Comments
Thursday, March 21, 10:48 AM Jefferies' David Zervos has been as apocalyptic as they come (I, II) with regards to Cyprus, and his latest note says the country's eurozone exit (now openly talked about at the EU's highest levels) could be a Lehman-style systemic event. He sees about a 20% chance of such next week. "The risk/reward for chips on the table stinks; that's why I'm on the sidelines." 1 Comment [Global & FX]
Monday, March 18, 6:11 AM Stock futures slide, but are off the lows following news of Cyprus' proposal for a one-time tax on bank deposits as part of a Troika bailout. Dow -0.5%, S&P -0.8%, Nasdaq -0.95%. 6 Comments [Global & FX, Top Stories, On the Move, U.S. Economy]
Thursday, March 14, 11:32 AM A look at all 31 nine-day DJIA winning streaks since 1900 from Ryan Detrick shows the index more than 1% higher 2 months later 18 out of 30 times (#31 to be decided), and about flat in 3 instances. 1 Comment
Wednesday, March 13, 10:24 AM The percentage of bears in the Investors Intelligence poll declines to 18.8%. It's the first time below 20 since May 2011, and dips below 20 marked market tops in 2010 and 2011, notes a usually bullish Ryan Detrick. "Be aware." 7 Comments

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