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at MarketWatch.com (May 18, 2010)
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust Conservatively Overvalued By 50%
- Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust will announce their quarterly distribution on November 19th, and may disappoint on production.
- DOM is a gas trust in decline, and is currently approaching the end of a 25-year life cycle.
- DOM's reserves at current gas prices imply a trust value significantly below the present market price.
- It is likely DOM will announce further production cuts due to well shutdowns.
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM): Unit Holder And Operator Interests Diverge
- New filing of communication between SEC and the Trustee.
- Only 369 of DOM's 500 wells profitable to drill for the unit holder.
- Only 50 of DOM's wells profitable to drill for the operator.
- Limited Energy Trust trading over 4x its value, the most overvalued energy trust.
- Next year's 5 and 7.5 put options offer tremendous risk reward profile.
- Several catalysts until expiration.
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust Grossly Overvalued - 75% Downside, 90% Of Wells May Be Losing Money
- DOM’s production levels are declining and the trust is likely to close in 4-5 years.
- Wells are being shut and a vast majority of wells may be losing money.
- DOM’s own 2014 reserve report suggests a fair value of $2.64; 75% lower than Monday’s opening price.
- Separate analysis of production and pricing suggests that, even under highly optimistic assumptions, DOM is 36% overpriced.
- Put options appear very attractively priced.
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Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust is a grantor trust, which acquires & holds certain overriding royalty interests burdening proved natural gas properties located in the Pottsville coal formation of the Black Warrior Basin, Tuscaloosa County, Alabama.
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