Dow Chemical Co. (DOW)
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- Clueless - Cramer's Mad Money (10/8/08) [view article]
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- Irrational Arbitrage Spread: Dow Chemical's Acquisition of Rohm & Haas [view article]
- 36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
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- Water: An Ocean of Opportunity [view article]
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- Irrational Arbitrage Spread: Dow Chemical's Acquisition of Rohm & Haas
- Investment Ideas For Hard Times To Come
- 36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull
- Dow Chemical: Thoughts on Valuation
- Shopping During Armageddon
- What Else Has Buffett Been Buying?
- Dow Chemical's Latest Joint Ventures
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- Water: An Ocean of Opportunity
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cannot
compete!
Investment Ideas For Hard Times To Come [view article]
@BS Detector: you're wrong...because you only see half the picture."Second, there's plenty of blame to go around. The "liberal-inspired social justice programs" you'd like to blame have been around since the late 70's..."
That is true to *some* degree. But basically, we suffered through them. We can no longer afford them -- the paying population is shrinking compared to the recipient base (translated: we're getting ever more squeezed between the underclass that won't work, and the huge boomer generation beginning to collect on their entitlements).
We all know how stressed Social Security and Medicare have been -- and those are not paying to every American. How the flippin' hell can anyone think "universal" healthcare can work?? Instead of just retired and disabled...*everyone* would be on it. You're looking at a 75% health insurance tax, instead of the current 7.5%. The Feds *NEVER* do anything as cheaply as the private sector can!
Kill the socialism. It's been tried and has failed. Here and abroad.
Reply
cannot
compete!
Investment Ideas For Hard Times To Come [view article]
Ahem. Guns, ammo, canned food. Land. Reply36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
I think it's a dubious assertion to dismiss peak oil because there happens to be plenty of oil on the market right now. Peak oil is something occuring across decades, not weeks or months. Oil fields are dying every day and are not being replaced. That is a geological fact. This market may recover but oil will be more expensive and less available in ten years. Reply36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
Curbs-inYes , you are correct , but Russia , along with Brazil , are tanking , along with China + Europe . This will be a global Depression .It will be most severe in The US + Europe . You had better hope that there are soup lines. How will you get there with the price of Gas ? More mass layoffs are coming + martial law Reply
36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
a nation of fiat money. ReplyInvestment Ideas For Hard Times To Come [view article]
Are you still waiting for Republicans in Congress to do the same? ReplyInvestment Ideas For Hard Times To Come [view article]
As mentioned by BS, there is plenty of blame to go around. I am still waiting for Democrats in Congress to shoulder their fair share in regards to the present financial challenges we face as a nation. Reply36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
PNC, PEP, PCP a few I own and have for a very long time. ReplyInvestment Ideas For Hard Times To Come [view article]
"Inflation may well come close to 12% or higher as the government printing presses roll 24/7 to bail out liberal-inspired social justice programs and to concurrently stave off a severe recession. Circa 1977-80."First off, based on the contraction of M3 and the rock-like fall of commodities prices, I think inflation is the least of our worries. The Fed and Treasury are working hard, and should be pumping as much money as possible into the banking system, to cut short a deflationary spiral.
Second, there's plenty of blame to go around. The "liberal-inspired social justice programs" you'd like to blame have been around since the late 70's, and we went through a significant drop in housing prices in the early 1990s without a systemic banking failure. It was only after the investment banks and insurance companies were let loose to securitize mortgages and trade default swaps that we entered this dangerous ground. Foreclosures are in the 6-7% range - since when does a 7% loss in one market segment bring the world's credit market to a halt?
Lastly, in thinking about 1977-1980, remember please that we were coming off the most socialist policies ever instituted in this country - Nixon's wage and price controls. This policy skewed markets so dramatically that we were destined to face a multi-year correction as prices regained equilibrium levels.
I'd like to keep politics out of it. There's plenty of blame to go around. Reply
36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
Glad my Coke (KO) and gold (ABX) made the list. KO has not suffered the hosing the rest of my portfolio has taken. Maybe your other picks are safe havens ...or safer. Best move, if you had foreseen a 33% one-year S&P dive, would have been to move to cash last October and stay there. Can't fault anyone who went "all in" a week ago. America's on sale! Replypinocha
Investment Ideas For Hard Times To Come [view article]
Thomas Smicklas for president! ReplyFist
36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
Bill, I generally enjoy your analysis and articles. I believe in buying when others everybody is selling. I completely disagree that this a time to buy stocks denominated in US dollars. The foreign markets will be buyable long before this country is. We may see another 40-60% drop in valuations in this country before anything resembling a long term bull market happens in this country. This country has to undergo a fundamental change in the way it's people think before the markets will go up meaningfully again. In my opinion, that is years away, not happening now.Not catching this falling knife, I am out and in cash. There will be other ways to make money, but it won't be by going long stocks denominated in US dollars. I'll look to buy in the next 5 years or so, but we've got a LOT more downside to go. Reply
Logic
36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
There are problems with trying to catch falling knives at this point.1) The markets are overly unstable, as the 300-700 daily point swings illustrate. We run the real risk of a crash.
2) The fundemental conditions are not anything most of us have seen in our lifetimes. Maybe everyone is RIGHT to be fearful. Contrarian indicators generally only work to confirm other indicators. They are virtually useless on their own, because the levels of bullish/bearishness are all relative. As an example: It may seem high when 50% of the people are bearish, relative to the 20% who were 2 months ago... but it will turn out that 98% will be bearish at the REAL bottom -- which makes the 50% seem low. There's just no way to know where you are in that cycle, except by hindsight.
3) There is a risk of systemic meltdown. This would obviously be exceedingly bearish.
4) The hedge funds are facing extremely high redemptions, and may be forced to continue selling.
5) The market anticipates the future. The future 6-9 months ahead looks worse, not better.
All in all, I have considered trying to bottom pick, but decided against it. Bottom picking implies a bottom -- and I'm not convinced we're there yet. Stocks are still not cheap by historical standards.
I would rather miss the exact bottom by a few percent than be way too early and lose dozens of percent. Reply
Charley
36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
I am all in, I had 25% in cash and spent it all last week. I bought GE when it dropped nearly 10% now it looks to open down another 1%. I cannot help but wonder what people are thinking? GE has capitol problems sure but they are also set to rock with a sizable presence in wind turbines. The next time that oil goes up this one will too. It is a good bet that if the Democrats win in Nov that Alt Energy will be a major agenda item for the new administration. Reply36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
Jim Rogers has said that water treatment stocks and agriculture was the way to go for the next bull run.Read his latest interview at: jimrogers-investments.... Reply