Nov. 18, 2014, 11:36 AM
- Under pressure for much of last week, solar stocks are rallying (TAN +4.3%) after SunEdison (SUNE +23.5%) and its TerraForm Power (TERP +29.1%) YieldCo announced they're buying leading wind project developer First Wind for up to $2.4B, and JA Solar (JASO +4%) beat Q3 estimates and upped its full-year cell/module shipment guidance to 3.1GW-3.2GW from 2.9GW-3.1GW.
- Gainers: SCTY +3.9%. SOL +4.5%. TSL +3.7%. YGE +2.7%. JKS +3.4%. HSOL +2.8%. ASTI +6%. DQ +3.2%. RGSE +2.6%.
- SunEdison CEO Ahmad Chatila declares the First Wind deal will double his company's addressable market. Cowen thinks SunEdison "can leverage First Wind’s platform to push into international markets for wind given the potential expiration of the production tax credit for U.S. wind projects."
- Along with its results/guidance, JA announced a $90M buyback; it's good for repurchasing 23% of shares at current levels, if fully used. JA's Q3 gross margin was 15%, -20 bps Q/Q but +370 bps Y/Y. Cell/module shipments rose 15.2% Q/Q and 57% Y/Y to 500.2MW.
Nov. 13, 2014, 9:51 AM
- Net income of $5.9M, or $0.64 per diluted share vs. -10.3M, or -$1.49 per diluted share in the same quarter a year ago.
- Daqo (DQ +2.3%) shipped 1,598 MT of polysilicon in Q3, up from 1,436 MT in Q2 and 1,298 MT a year ago. The company expects Q4 shipments of 1,500MT-1,550 MT.
- Average cash cost fell to $10.72/kg from $11.48 in Q2 and $11.82 a year ago, and average production cost fell to $13.05/kg from $14.13 and $15.98.
- Gross margin rose to 31.7% from 30.9% in Q2 and 9.8% a year ago.
- ASP rose to $21.50 from Q2's $22.04. SG&A spend totaled $2.5M, and R&D $200K. The company had $33M in cash at the end of Q3.
- Q3 results
Nov. 13, 2014, 6:22 AM
Nov. 11, 2014, 12:15 PM
- Newly-public Vivint Solar (VSLR -21.6%) has nosedived after missing Q3 EPS estimates and guiding for Q4 revenue of $5.5M-$6.5M, below a $7.3M consensus. Installations are expected to fall to 45MW-47MW from Q3's 49MW.
- Rivals SolarCity (SCTY -3%) and SunPower (SPWR -3.2%) are following Vivint lower, as are several other solar names. RGSE -6.2%. ENPH -5.7%. CSIQ -2.5%. JKS -2.2%. DQ -4.1%. CSUN -2.7%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Nov. 6, 2014, 10:07 AM
Aug. 15, 2014, 9:41 AM
- Daqo (NYSE:DQ) shipped 1,436MT of polysilicon in Q2, up from 1,391MT in Q1 and 975MT a year ago. The company expects Q3 shipments of 1,450MT-1,500MT, and forecasts full-year production will be close to a nameplate capacity of 6,150MT.
- Average cash cost fell to $11.48/kg from $11.75 in Q1 and $12.21 a year ago, and average production cost fell to $14.13/kg from $14.49 and $17.64. For the full year, Daqo is respectively aiming for average cash and production costs of $11.30/kg and $14/kg.
- Gross margin rose to 30.9% from 30.2% in Q1 and -3.9% a year ago. ASP rose to $22.04 from Q1's $21.63. SG&A spend totaled $1.5M, and R&D $200K.
- Daqo is now aiming to grow capacity to 12,150MT by Q2 2015; the company was previously targeting the end of 2014. Construction work for the expansion of its Xinjiang polysilicon plant is expected to finish by the end of November.
- Daqo had $77.7M in cash at the end of Q2, and $253.4M in borrowings.
- Q2 results, PR
Aug. 15, 2014, 7:14 AM
- Net income of $4.5M vs. $2.6M in the last quarter, and a net loss of $34M in the same quarter a year ago.
- EBITDA of $15.2M vs. $13.7M in Q1 of 2014, and ($160.7M) in Q2 of 2013.
- Polysilicon shipped during the quarter totaled 1,436 MT, increasing from 1,391 MT in Q1 of 2014. Wafer shipment during the quarter was 17.6M pieces, increasing from 16.8M pieces in Q1 of 2014.
- The Company expects to ship 1,450 MT to 1,500 MT of polysilicon and approximately 16.8M to 17M pieces of wafer in Q3.
- Q2 results
Aug. 15, 2014, 6:05 AM
May. 13, 2014, 11:40 AM
- Along with its Q1 numbers, Daqo (DQ -7.4%) has announced it's selling 2M shares to help pay for expansion/tech upgrades. At current levels, the offering would raise $70M, and increase Daqo's share count by 28%. Underwriters have a 300K-share overallotment option.
- Polysilicon shipments rose to 1,391MT in Q1 from 1,271MT in Q4 and 706MT a year ago. Shipments are expected to grow to 1,375MT-1,400MT in Q2.
- Annual production capacity is currently at 6,150MT. Daqo is aiming to eventually grow capacity to 25,000MT. The company asserts its polysilicon cash cost (now $11.8/kg) and production cost ($14.5/kg) are among the lowest in the industry.
- Gross margin was 30.2%, a marked improvement from Q4's 18.5% and the year-ago period's -22.3%. Excluding a $1.8M reversal of doubtful accounts, SG&A spend fell to $3.3M from $4M in Q4 and $4.1M a year ago. R&D spend was at $0.9M vs. $1.1M and $0.4M.
- Q1 results, PR
May. 12, 2014, 5:17 PM
May. 7, 2014, 11:45 AM
- A Q1 beat and full-year guidance hike aren't enough to keep First Solar (FSLR -4.2%) from selling off. Possibly contributing: In spite of the guidance hike, First Solar stated on its CC (transcript) Q2 EPS "will be significantly lower" than a $0.60 consensus due to project timings; that implies 2014 results will be very back-end loaded.
- Also: First Solar disclosed in its earnings slides (.pdf) its expected future systems/3rd-party module revenue is down $400M from the end of 2013 to $7.1B. However, expected module shipments are up by 100MW to 2.8GW, and potential booking opportunities have risen by 1.6GW to 12.2GW.
- Module production totaled 441MW, -1% Q/Q and +19% Y/Y. Conversion efficiency rose 10 bps Q/Q and 60 bps Y/Y to 13.5%, with lead-line efficiency rising 30 bps Q/Q and 120 bps Y/Y to 14.2%. The company is aiming for 18.1%-18.9% lead-line efficiency by 2017.
- Other solar stocks are also off (TAN -2.8%), as investors continue showing a take-no-prisoners attitude towards momentum stocks in general. Canadian Solar (CSIQ +0.3%) has given back the premarket gains it saw following a Q1 guidance hike.
- Notable decliners: SCTY -8.8%. SUNE -7%. TSL -5.5%. CSUN -5.1%. YGE -4.8%. SPWR -4.2%. DQ -5.7%.
Apr. 4, 2014, 7:06 AM
Mar. 4, 2014, 1:34 PM
- With the help of positive earnings news from Trina and Yingli, volatile solar stocks are among the standouts (TAN +6%) on a very good day for equities.
- Trina posted mixed Q4 results, but also issued a strong 2014 module shipment forecast. Yingli has pre-announced its Q4 module shipments will be soundly above prior guidance.
- Notable gainers: SPWR +8.6%. JASO +8%. CSUN +6.6%. CSIQ +7.3%. STRI +10.1%. DQ +8.4%. SOL +6%.
- SunEdison (SUNE +10.5%) is taking off with the help of a Morgan Stanley upgrade. Analyst Timothy Radcliff thinks the commercial-scale solar market could grow to 129GW by 2018, with a rush of activity prior to a 2017 federal tax credit cut. He also thinks SunEdison's solar project yieldco spinoff could sport a $1.6B valuation within 12-18 months, and notes such instruments "trade at premium valuations given [their] predictable and growing cash flows."
- JinkoSolar (JKS +14.8%) is more than recouping yesterday's post-earnings losses with the help of positive commentary. Roth (Buy) notes Jinko's 2014 module guidance of 2.3GW-2.5GW beat the firm's 2.1GW estimate, and thinks Jinko is the first Chinese company to see its non-silicon processing costs drop below $0.40/watt.
Feb. 26, 2014, 12:14 PM
- With 17 of the 20 analysts covering First Solar (FSLR -11.5%) holding neutral or bearish stances going into the company's Q4 report, little sympathy is being shown in response to a big Q4 miss and soft Q1 guidance.
- Goldman (Sell, PT lowered to $42 from $45) continues to see a "lack of upside in First Solar's utility-scale model." The firm points to checks showing a "challenging U.S. growth outlook for large-scale utility projects," mixed performance in emerging markets, and the lack of a near-term yieldco spinoff/IPO for First Solar's solar projects (SunEdison recently filed for one).
- Goldman also thinks First Solar's ability to hit a 1:1 book-to-bill at the end of 2013 was accompanied by a mix shift towards lower-margin module orders.
- Morgan Stanley is pleased with First Solar's cost-cutting moves, but also thinks investors are counting on "a large degree of profitable international growth," which it considers "highly uncertain." Cowen expects gross margin to be down 450 bps Q/Q, but also notes Q1 guidance "may not be indicative of full-year results."
- In spite of First Solar, peers are turning in a strong day (TAN +4.1%). The Street's positive response to SunEdison's Capital Markets Day could be helping.
- Notable gainers: SCTY +6.6%. CSIQ +8.4%. DQ +6.9%. JKS +4.2%. JASO +3.5%. ENPH +4.1%.
Nov. 22, 2013, 6:08 AM
Nov. 7, 2013, 2:22 PM
- With shares up over 5x YTD going into the company's Q3 report, SolarCity (SCTY -14%) investors are taking profits in the face of a Q3 beat and above-consensus guidance.
- Credit Suisse (Outperform, $75 PT) is defending SolarCity today, while praising the company's operating leverage and incremental retained value per watt (rose 35% Q/Q in Q3 to $1.9)1.
- Goldman (Neutral, $65 PT) also talks up SolarCity's value retention, as well as its declining operational costs/watt (fell to $0.59/watt from $0.80/watt in Q2). But it also cautions expectations were high, points out "no volume upside was provided" for 2013/2014 deployment targets, and that there's "limited clarity" for SolarCity's solar lease securitization efforts.
- On its CC (transcript), SolarCity mentioned it invested $200M+ in solar deployments in Q3, and financed another $86M. The company has been raising funds for its deployment efforts at a breakneck pace.
- Many solar peers are also off sharply on a rough day for tech momentum play. Thanks to good earnings news, the group rallied sharply both on Monday and last Friday. In addition to SolarCity, China Sunergy's poor guidance could also be playing a role.
- Solar decliners: FSLR -4.2%. SPWR -6.1%. SOL -5.1%. JKS -4.8%. YGE -4.7%. JASO -6.5%. DQ -10.2%. SPWR -6.1%. LDK -5.5%. SUNE -3.8%.
DQ vs. ETF Alternatives
Daqo New Energy Corp is polysilicon manufacturer based in China. It manufactures and sells polysilicon to photovoltaic product manufacturers, who further process its polysilicon into ingots, wafers, cells and modules for solar power solutions.
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