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3 Chinese Stocks Seeing Bearish Smart Money SentimentKapitall • Mar. 21, 2012
Investing In Solar ETFs Vs. Individual Solar Companies
The Street's Track Record For Q3 Chinese Solar Estimates
2012 Solar EPS Forecasts Under 4 Pricing Scenarios - Part II
Solars' Quarterly And Full-Year 2011 Estimates: Part 2
Are The Bank Of America Solar Stock Price Targets Fair?
PR Newswire (Mon, 8:30AM)
PR Newswire (Apr 4, 2014)
PR Newswire (Mar 31, 2014)
Daqo New Energy Successfully Complete Debottlenecking Project for Its Xinjiang Polysilicon FacilitiesPR Newswire (Jan 31, 2014)
DQ vs. ETF Alternatives
Daqo New Energy Corp is polysilicon manufacturer based in China. It manufactures and sells polysilicon to photovoltaic product manufacturers, who further process its polysilicon into ingots, wafers, cells and modules for solar power solutions.
Thursday, Mar 205:43 PM
Monday, Mar 103:57 PM
Monday, Mar 103:57 PM| 7 Comments
- Chinese Internet and solar names, many of them among the standouts of the 2013/2014 tech rally, are heading into the close with steep losses after the Chinese government reported exports fell 18.1% Y/Y in February (much worse than expected).
- Internet decliners: WUBA -10.7%. YOKU -7.3%. ATHM -7.2%. QUNR -6.4%. NQ -6%. RENN -5.2%. CTRP -5.2%. YY -4.4%. WBAI -4.4%. KONG -5.5%.
- Solar decliners: JKS -6.3%. YGE -5.8%. TSL -6.7%. CSUN -4.9%. CSIQ -4.5%. DQ -4.2%. HSOL -4.5%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Tuesday, Mar 41:34 PM
Tuesday, Mar 41:34 PM| Comment!
- With the help of positive earnings news from Trina and Yingli, volatile solar stocks are among the standouts (TAN +6%) on a very good day for equities.
- Trina posted mixed Q4 results, but also issued a strong 2014 module shipment forecast. Yingli has pre-announced its Q4 module shipments will be soundly above prior guidance.
- Notable gainers: SPWR +8.6%. JASO +8%. CSUN +6.6%. CSIQ +7.3%. STRI +10.1%. DQ +8.4%. SOL +6%.
- SunEdison (SUNE +10.5%) is taking off with the help of a Morgan Stanley upgrade. Analyst Timothy Radcliff thinks the commercial-scale solar market could grow to 129GW by 2018, with a rush of activity prior to a 2017 federal tax credit cut. He also thinks SunEdison's solar project yieldco spinoff could sport a $1.6B valuation within 12-18 months, and notes such instruments "trade at premium valuations given [their] predictable and growing cash flows."
- JinkoSolar (JKS +14.8%) is more than recouping yesterday's post-earnings losses with the help of positive commentary. Roth (Buy) notes Jinko's 2014 module guidance of 2.3GW-2.5GW beat the firm's 2.1GW estimate, and thinks Jinko is the first Chinese company to see its non-silicon processing costs drop below $0.40/watt.
Wednesday, Feb 2612:14 PM
Wednesday, Feb 2612:14 PM| 9 Comments
- With 17 of the 20 analysts covering First Solar (FSLR -11.5%) holding neutral or bearish stances going into the company's Q4 report, little sympathy is being shown in response to a big Q4 miss and soft Q1 guidance.
- Goldman (Sell, PT lowered to $42 from $45) continues to see a "lack of upside in First Solar's utility-scale model." The firm points to checks showing a "challenging U.S. growth outlook for large-scale utility projects," mixed performance in emerging markets, and the lack of a near-term yieldco spinoff/IPO for First Solar's solar projects (SunEdison recently filed for one).
- Goldman also thinks First Solar's ability to hit a 1:1 book-to-bill at the end of 2013 was accompanied by a mix shift towards lower-margin module orders.
- Morgan Stanley is pleased with First Solar's cost-cutting moves, but also thinks investors are counting on "a large degree of profitable international growth," which it considers "highly uncertain." Cowen expects gross margin to be down 450 bps Q/Q, but also notes Q1 guidance "may not be indicative of full-year results."
- In spite of First Solar, peers are turning in a strong day (TAN +4.1%). The Street's positive response to SunEdison's Capital Markets Day could be helping.
- Notable gainers: SCTY +6.6%. CSIQ +8.4%. DQ +6.9%. JKS +4.2%. JASO +3.5%. ENPH +4.1%.
Tuesday, Feb 184:03 PM
Tuesday, Feb 184:03 PM| 1 Comment
- On a good day for many tech momentum plays, solar and Chinese Internet stocks led the way.
- Solar names could be benefiting from Chinese government remarks suggesting Beijing remains open to trade talks to end its ongoing solar import dispute with the U.S. The comments come after the ITC added Chinese solar panels made with Taiwanese cells to its list of Chinese panels covered by import duties.
- Also: SunEdison (SUNE +6.6%) has filed for an IPO for its solar project business, a move that could entice other companies with major solar project ops to do the same.
- Solar gainers: FSLR +6.9%. SCTY +8%. JASO +12.6%. DQ +9.2%. CSUN +8.1%. YGE +5.5%. JKS +5.3%.
- Chinese Web gainers: CTRP +11.5%. CCIH +16.8%. RENN +11%. YOKU +6.1%. QIHU +6.9%. WUBA +10.6%. WBAI +7.9%. GOMO +9.1%. SOHU +5.6%.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
Friday, Jan 312:52 PM
Friday, Jan 312:52 PM| Comment!
- Daqo (DQ +4.4%) says it has finished a debottlenecking project for a polysilicon facility, and has begun ramping production. The company expects to increase its annual polysilicon production capacity to 6,150 MT, and to cut its production cost to $14/kg.
- Also: CEO Gongda Yao states Daqo has seen "stronger [demand] for polysilicon recently." The company's shares took off last year as polysilicon prices stabilized amid an improving industry supply/demand balance. Prices are expected to rise this year.
Thursday, Jan 239:59 AM
Thursday, Jan 239:59 AM| 9 Comments
- SEC administrative law judge Cameron Elliot has barred the Chinese units of the Big-4 accounting firms - KPMG, Deloitte, PwC, and Ernst & Young - from auditing U.S.-listed companies for six months.
- Elliot declares the accounting firms "willfully" chose to withhold audit work papers from U.S. regulators for Chinese companies being investigated for accounted fraud. The firms have been worried about violating Chinese privacy laws by turning over the papers, and have argued the dispute needs to be resolved politically.
- Though the firms plan to appeal and say they can continue serving Chinese clients for now, shares of Chinese Web and solar names aren't handling the news well. Soft Chinese PMI data could be worsening matters.
- Chinese Web decliners: BIDU -2.5%. SOHU -3.2%. DANG -8.9%. SFUN -8.5%. PWRD -8.5%. QUNR -7.1%. LITB -6.5%. YY -6.1%. WUBA -6%. BITA -5.4%. EJ -5.9%. SINA -4.6%. LITB -6.5%. CTRP -5.4%. NQ -7.1%.
- Chinese solar decliners: TSL -8.7%. JASO -6.9%. SOL -6.3%. JKS -5.6%. CSIQ -5.4%. DQ -4.6%. YGE -5.6%. CSUN -6.2%. HSOL -7.8%.
- Qihoo (QIHU -4.6%) has joined the selloff in spite of a BrightWire report stating Alibaba (ABABA) has reached a deal to acquire a stake in the company. Marbridge Consulting reported two weeks ago Qihoo and Alibaba were in talks about a possible investment.
Tuesday, Jan 211:18 PM
Tuesday, Jan 211:18 PM| 4 Comments
- New German energy minister Sigmar Gabriel has outlined fresh solar, wind, and biogas subsidy cuts. The proposed cuts, which have already drawn criticism from politicians and the local solar industry, would come on top of 2012 cuts imposed by Europe's largest solar market.
- Citing a wish to curb electricity bill increases caused by renewable energy subsidies, Gabriel is proposing (among other things) to lower Germany's renewable feed-in tariff to €0.12/kWH from €0.17/kWh, and to limit annual solar capacity expansion to 2.5GW.
- He also proposes operators of new 500KW or larger solar plants sell their electricity directly by 2015, and to replace feed-in tariffs with a tender system by 2017. In addition, a self-consumption surcharge is proposed for certain new solar installations.
- Solar stocks are seeing some profit-taking (TAN -2.6%) following the news. Notable decliners: FSLR -2.3%. JKS -2.9%. SUNE -2.8%. DQ -3.3%. YGE -2.8%. SOL -2.6%. SOL -2.6%. TSL -1.5%. CSUN -2.1%.
Tuesday, Jan 71:05 PM
Tuesday, Jan 71:05 PM| 5 Comments
- Solar stocks started 2014 with a bang, and are adding to their momentum today (TAN +4%) with the help of positive industry and company-specific news.
- The Chinese government, which last year set a 35GW 2015 cumulative installation target, is now promising additional support, and says it will draft guidelines for industry M&A. Consolidation with China's fragmented solar cell/module market could both lower overcapacity (already declining thanks to rising demand) and lead to further margin expansion.
- Yingli (YGE +8.7%) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ +7.4%), both of which saw huge 2013 gains, are today's biggest gainers. Yingli has announced it's forming a JV with state-owned China National Nuclear Corp. to create 500MW of utility-scale solar projects. Canadian has announced a deal to supply 25.3MW of modules for four North Carolina projects.
- Also: Hanwha (HSOL +4.6%) has signed an MOU to supply up to 50MW of modules to U.S. residential solar installer OneRoof Energy.
- Other gainers: FSLR +2.7% (hit by a Goldman downgrade yesterday). SUNE +4.4%. DQ +4.9%. CSUN +3.2%. JASO +5.5%. ENPH +6.8%. ASTI +3.8%. JKS +3%.
Monday, Dec 302013, 12:56 PM
Monday, Dec 302013, 12:56 PM| Comment!
- Solar stocks aren't getting left out on a day that's seeing a number of heavily-shorted names shoot higher (see NQ Mobile and InvenSense). With one trading day left in the year, the Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +2.5%) is up 128% YTD.
- China Sunergy (CSUN +15.5%) is today's biggest winner: The company announced this morning it has completed the sale of a 5MW U.K. solar project to a local firm.
- Trina Solar and Real Goods Solar, each of which announced new solar project deals, are also posting solid gains. As is ReneSola (SOL +3%), which announced it has signed a memorandum of intent to sell 60MW worth of Chinese solar projects.
- Also rallying: DQ +8.2%. JASO +6.5%. SPWR +2.8%. HSOL +6.3%. CSIQ +4.6%. JKS +4%. YGE +6.3%. STP +2.3%. ENPH +4.9%.
Monday, Dec 92013, 2:50 PM
Monday, Dec 92013, 2:50 PM| 11 Comments
- The Chinese government, which has a 12GW 2014 solar installation target, wants to see 8GW of installations involve distributed solar systems (such as those installed on residential and commercial buildings), and just 4GW of higher-margin utility-scale deployments.
- Credit Suisse notes investors are concerned the 12GW target won't be attainable if utility-scale installations are capped at 4GW. It thinks Yingli (YGE -5.9%), Trina (TSL -7%), and JinkoSolar (JKS -5.3%) have the most to lose if such a cap is implemented.
- Nomura is less concerned, noting most companies it has talked to believe 4GW "will be more of a guideline rather than a firm cap." The firm adds China's solar policy discussion is "fluid," and that the government remains committed to supporting solar adoption.
- Notable solar decliners (in addition to the aforementioned companies): HSOL -12.1%. SPWR -5.6%. CSUN -5.5%. JASO -3.4%. DQ -2%.
- Last Friday: Solar stocks fall in spite of market rally
Tuesday, Nov 262013, 10:58 AM
Tuesday, Nov 262013, 10:58 AM| Comment!
- With a lot of good news having been priced in this year, several Chinese solar stocks are selling off after JA Solar and LDK Solar both provided mixed Q3 numbers and fairly good guidance (I, II). LDK (LDK -2.5%), which continues to deal with major liquidity/debt payment issues (the company just reached a new two-week debt forbearance deal with creditors), has given up its premarket gains.
- Notable decliners: STP -10.4%. YGE -3.8%. SOL -2.9%. DQ -2.7%. TSL -2%.
Monday, Nov 252013, 12:46 PM|Monday, Nov 252013, 12:46 PM| Comment!
Tuesday, Nov 192013, 2:41 PM
Tuesday, Nov 192013, 2:41 PM| 32 Comments
- After steadily rising over the last three weeks, 3D printing stocks are reversing course in dramatic fashion today in the absence of major news. Solar stocks, which have also seen plenty of good days lately, are also selling off hard.
- 3D printer makers 3D Systems (DDD -6.1%), Stratasys (SSYS -7.5%), ExOne (XONE -7.7%), and Voxeljet (VJET -14.1%) are all off sharply, as is custom parts maker Proto Labs ([[PRLB -4.8% - sometimes hyped as a 3D printing play).
- Trina (TSL -4.9%), which provided a big Q3 beat and guidance hike this morning, has turned negative after shooting higher in premarket trading. Other solar decliners: YGE -10.9%. FSLR -4.6%. SOL -6.4%. JASO -6.4%. CSUN -5.6%. JKS 5.7%. DQ -5.5%. SUNE -5.5%. CSIQ -5.3%. SPWR -7.1%.
Wednesday, Nov 132013, 12:50 PM|Wednesday, Nov 132013, 12:50 PM| 1 Comment
Thursday, Nov 72013, 2:22 PM
Thursday, Nov 72013, 2:22 PM| 3 Comments
- With shares up over 5x YTD going into the company's Q3 report, SolarCity (SCTY -14%) investors are taking profits in the face of a Q3 beat and above-consensus guidance.
- Credit Suisse (Outperform, $75 PT) is defending SolarCity today, while praising the company's operating leverage and incremental retained value per watt (rose 35% Q/Q in Q3 to $1.9)1.
- Goldman (Neutral, $65 PT) also talks up SolarCity's value retention, as well as its declining operational costs/watt (fell to $0.59/watt from $0.80/watt in Q2). But it also cautions expectations were high, points out "no volume upside was provided" for 2013/2014 deployment targets, and that there's "limited clarity" for SolarCity's solar lease securitization efforts.
- On its CC (transcript), SolarCity mentioned it invested $200M+ in solar deployments in Q3, and financed another $86M. The company has been raising funds for its deployment efforts at a breakneck pace.
- Many solar peers are also off sharply on a rough day for tech momentum play. Thanks to good earnings news, the group rallied sharply both on Monday and last Friday. In addition to SolarCity, China Sunergy's poor guidance could also be playing a role.
- Solar decliners: FSLR -4.2%. SPWR -6.1%. SOL -5.1%. JKS -4.8%. YGE -4.7%. JASO -6.5%. DQ -10.2%. SPWR -6.1%. LDK -5.5%. SUNE -3.8%.
- View all 2 replies
Jan H. Lessner:: A company with high debt load, losses and a share price above 40 USD? Ridiculous. They would be shorted to hell, if there were enough.
Jim Van Meerten:: look on NASDAQ.com and short interest is actually dropping as those who tried it are trying to cover