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- Austerity moves clearly have helped gold miners navigate through the lower price environment, but Citigroup analysts warn that further belt-tightening will be difficult, and may even hurt long-term prospects.
- Citi cautions that the slowdown in capex invariably will result in a fall in production, which in turn will lead to a faster rise in unit costs; also, the recent increase in head grades across the global mining space is an unsustainable mining practice that can have further detrimental effects on future mine plans and ore bodies.
- Among miners Citi sees as most vulnerable to a low gold price environment are Sibanye Gold (NYSE:SBGL), Harmony Gold (NYSE:HMY) and DRDGOLD (NYSE:DRD), which the least vulnerable are Goldcorp (NYSE:GG), Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX), Yamana (NYSE:AUY), Medusa Mining (OTC:MDSMF) and OceanaGold (OTCPK:OCANF).
- ETFs: GDX, NUGT, DUST, GLDX, RING, GGGG, PSAU
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Mar. 1, 2011, 3:02 PMThe gold ETF (GLD) has outperformed South African gold miners for years. Last year's culprit was the rising rand, which meant a 29% increase in the dollar value of gold translated into just a 13% jump for the SA miners. A lower rand (SZR) could turn things around in 2011. AU, GFI, HMY, DROOY. | Comment!
DRD vs. ETF Alternatives
DRDGold Ltd is engaged in the exploration, extraction, processing, and smelting of gold in South Africa. It primarily operates Ergo, a surface retreatment project; and Blyvoor, engaged in the underground and surface operations.
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