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Pay Attention To 10-Year TreasuriesSimon Moore • Wed, Mar 7, 2012
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Pay Attention To 10-Year TreasuriesSimon Moore • Wed, Mar 7, 2012
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at MarketWatch.com (Apr 30, 2012)
DTYS vs. ETF Alternatives
DTYS Description
"The iPath® US Treasury 10-year Bear Exchange Traded Note is linked inversely to the performance of the Barclays Capital 10Y US Treasury Futures Targeted Exposure Index™. The index seeks to produce returns that track movements in response to an increase or decrease, as applicable, in the yields available to investors purchasing 10-year U.S. Treasury notes. The level of the index is designed to increase in response to a decrease in 10-year Treasury note yields and to decrease in response to an increase in 10-year Treasury note yields. To accomplish this objective, the performance of the index tracks the returns of a notional investment in a weighted ""long"" position in relation to 10-year Treasury futures contracts, as traded on the Chicago Board of Trade.
The iPath® US Treasury 10-year Bear ETN employs an index multiplier that provides the investor at maturity or upon redemption a participation rate of $0.10 gain or loss per each 1.00 point decrease or increase, respectively, in the level of the index. For purposes of calculating the closing indicative note value on a given day, the index multiplier is multiplied by the daily index performance, which is added to the daily interest that accrued from a notional investment of the value of the ETN at the 28-day U.S. Treasury Bill rate, from which all applicable costs and fees are deducted. "
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Country: United States
Key Info
- In Your Portfolio: Broad U.S. Bond ETFs, A Guide to U.S. Government Bond ETFs
- Asset Class Performance: Bonds
- All
- | Earnings
- | Dividends
- | M&A
- | On the move
- Monday, November 19, 2012, 1:40 PM "We are in the midst of a major deleveraging in the entire developed world," says BlackRockCIO Rick Rieder, with a rare kind word for those piling into "safe" assets like Treasurys and high-grade corporate debt. He points to an unprecedented aging of the population as keeping a lid on growth. Instead of losses, just maybe a backup in rates will bring forth another wave of cash now sitting on the sidelines. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy, Global & FX]
- Tuesday, November 6, 2012, 12:33 PM Jeff Gundlach backs up his public caution on longer-dated Treasurys by taking the modified duration of his Total Return Fund to just 1.59 (the fund would lose 1.59% in value in the case of an immediate 100 bp rise in rates). By comparison, Pimco's Total Return Fund is at 4.02. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
- Monday, November 5, 2012, 10:41 AM The Treasury market is pricing in an Obama victory, says Janney's Guy LeBas, as southward-heading yields suggest no imminent change to monetary policy. Left unexplained by LeBas is how a Romney victory would change monetary policy. Besides, many suspect the Fed runs the President, not the other way around. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Thursday, November 1, 2012, 2:25 PM Should Treasury yields rise on back of a Romney victory, use the price weakness to buy, says Pimco's Josh Timons. The conventional wisdom - that the Fed becomes more hawkish with Romney as president - is likely wrong, with even the candidate himself backing away from the "fire Bernanke" attitude which served well in the primaries. 7 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Monday, October 29, 2012, 8:46 AM Pessimism grows at businesses, an NABE survey finding about two-thirds of corporate economists see GDP growth of just 1.1%-2% over the next year, nearly double the amount expecting such 3 months ago. Just 5% of those surveyed expect growth exceeding 3%. Priced in? Those buying the long bond at less than a 3% yield better hope not. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Tuesday, October 23, 2012, 2:56 PM Treasury bond holdings at Bill Gross' Total Return Fund stood at just 9% of assets on Sept. 30, according to Morningstar, down sharply from 21% at the end of 2011. The move echoes a costly one Gross made at the start of 2011. One difference - much of the money pulled out of Treasurys has gone into TIPs, which now account for 11% of fund holdings. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Tuesday, October 23, 2012, 1:00 PM Treasury bond bulls as far back as memory goes, Hoisington and Hunt remain so, explaining how Federal Reserve actions serve to slow economic activity. Rising CPI during QEs I and II "had a devastating effect on workers' incomes," they write. Bernanke's wealth effect is a myth, they say, with zero benefit for those with incomes less than $130K, and negligible help for those over. As always, a great read. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Friday, October 19, 2012, 2:18 PM A nice chart from Goldman makes clear the risk in holding long-term Treasury paper at these yields. While a 100 basis points increase in rates hurts anyone holding Treasurys, low yields effectively lengthen a bond's duration, making a rise in rates especially painful. Rates were high enough in the 80s that even a 100 basis point spike in yields still left Treasury owners with a positive return - now that's good risk/reward. 1 Comment [U.S. Economy]
- Thursday, October 11, 2012, 8:23 AM Bonds are expensive, but so is hurricane insurance in Louisiana, writes Keith McCullough, recommending everyone's favorite hated asset as protection against a slowing economy and Bernanke's bubbles. Oct. 2012 is reminding him of Oct. 2007, when investors were more concerned with the past (double-digit gains YTD) than the future (sliding earnings). Also good insurance: The dollar (UUP) and utilities (XLU). 2 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Tuesday, October 9, 2012, 7:32 AM A chart "that should scare every bond investor," the yield on the 10-year Treasury has slipped below the S&P 500 dividend yield. The last time it happened - for a brief period during the financial crisis - Treasury yields were about 100 basis points higher a few weeks later. 5 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Tuesday, October 2, 2012, 8:18 AM JPMorgan's Treasury client survey shows a big bump in those short government bonds from 9% to 15%. The longs decline from 25% to 17%. Those neutral (the smart ones given that the Fed is in charge of rates across the curve) are at 68%. 2 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Wednesday, September 19, 2012, 9:11 AM The Fed owns about half or even a majority of Treasurys across several different maturities along the yield curve. If we toss in holdings by China, Japan, and banks borrowing for free from the Fed, are there any real-money investors still holding U.S. government debt? 5 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Saturday, September 15, 2012, 11:00 AM "Do you know what the loss would be on a 30-year Treasury if it went back ... just to the yield in force in 2011?" asks Jeff Gundlach, incredulous anybody would buy one (answer: 37%). If you need safety and yield, he says, buy Campbell Soup (CPB) instead. Listen to why the hot-shots at his firm would rather day-trade Facebook than divine the Treasury market. 48 Comments [U.S. Economy, Quick Ideas]
- Friday, September 14, 2012, 11:13 AM Richard Barley has a kind word for bonds (currently in the midst of a savage sell-off), saying the global growth outlook continues to be dismal despite the Fed and ECB. Could the curve get steeper still? Sure, but the date of any increase in short rates keeps getting pushed further into the future, which should help anchor the long end. 7 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Friday, September 14, 2012, 10:09 AM More on Consumer Sentiment: Importantly, according to the report authors, the large gain was evenly split between the first and second halves of the month, suggesting continued gains into September. Panic hits the bond pits thanks to a combination of a Fed adding stimulus to an economy maybe not needing it. The long bond yield +13 bps to 3.06%. TLT -2.6%. 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
- Friday, September 14, 2012, 7:21 AM Treasurys continue to get punished by the Fed, the 10-year note yield up 11 basis points to 1.83%. So much for Operation Twist - of which the stated goal is to lower long-term rates. Those who believe in the omniscience of the Fed will point to rising long-term rates as proving the QE announcement is already working. The FOMC should have done this months ago! 7 Comments [Global & FX]
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