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Monday, June 17, 2:54 PM Behind the rise in rates and the slide in stocks is the FT reporting Bernanke is likely to signal the Fed is close to tapering at his post-FOMC meeting press conference on Wednesday. Bernanke has a dual communication issue: To signal economic improvement is leading the Fed to taper, while at the same time reassuring markets the Fed remains and will remain extraordinarily accommodative. The Dow (DIA +0.3%) is up just 50 points now. 15 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Wednesday, June 12, 12:00 PM Stocks turn decidedly lower at lunchtime, the Dow (DIA -0.5%) off more than 60 points after opening higher by over 100. Rising intrest rates seemingly took the steam out of the rally, but the selloff in equities has the 10-year yield back to unchanged at 2.19%. The slide occurred alongside another rip higher for the yen (the new VIX), with dollar/yen falling to about its lowest level of this bear move, ¥95.19. 4 Comments
Tuesday, June 11, 10:40 AM After a sizable overnight fall, Treasury prices turn green on the session, the 10-year yield falling to 2.22%. The retreat in yields looks to be helping stocks climb off their lows, the DJIA (DIA -0.5%) now off just 75 points vs. about 150 near the open. 4 Comments
Tuesday, May 28, 10:29 AM Stocks are at session highs following the Consumer Confidence beat, the DJIA (DIA +1.4%) up 214 points. In addition to the bounce to 76.2 for the composite, the Present Situation Index rose to 66.7 from 61 and Expectations jumped to 82.4 from 74.3. The labor market outlook is more upbeat, with those expecting more jobs in coming months rising to 16.8% from 14.3%. Treasurys (TLT -1.2%) sell off, the 10-year yield touching a 2013 high of 2.08%. 12 Comments
Tuesday, May 21, 7:48 AM The DJIA (DIA, DOG) is on a DiMaggio-like run, having closed higher on 18 consecutive Tuesdays, the best "Tuesday streak" ever, according to Schaeffer's (next best was 4 for any day). The only down Tuesday in 2013 was January 8th. 1 Comment
Thursday, May 16, 10:10 AM More on Philly Fed: The big miss is another in a line of weak data points this morning. The decline was led by a steep drop in shipments to -8.5 from +9.1. Also notable is a big jump in inventories to +4.1 from -22.2. Employment worsened to -8.7 from -6.7. The percentage of firms reporting employment decreases was 22% vs. those reporting increases at 14% - a number sure to cross the desk of the FOMC doves this morning. Treasurys have had a tough May, but they're bouncing today, TLT +1.2%. The leveraged bear ETF: TBT -2.4%. Stocks give up early gains (DIA -0.2%). 6 Comments [U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, May 14, 8:03 AM More from Tepper: "We're going to get this hyper-drive market," unless the Fed starts tapering its purchases, he says (referencing 1999), adding the June meeting wouldn't be a bad time to get started. He pulls out this chart from a recent FRBNY report, showing stocks remain cheap - the equity premium to bonds is as high as it's been in the last 50 years. 16 Comments
Tuesday, May 14, 7:52 AM Tepper stays bullish. Confounding gnomes who whispered the hedge fund honcho was turning cautious on stocks, David Tepper tells the CNBC crew the wave of liquidity that turned him bullish in the first place is getting even bigger. Fed tapering? So what, he says. The U.S. budget deficit over the next 6 months will only be $100B, while the Fed is scheduled to buy about $500B. That's $400B coming out of the bond market and going to investors who can buy more fixed-income, more real estate, more stocks. SPY erases losses and gets back to flat premarket. 11 Comments [Breaking News]
Monday, April 22, 11:08 AM "When the cover of a major financial magazine features a cartoon of a bull leaping through the air on a pogo stick, it's probably about time to cash in the chips," writes John Hussman, commenting on Saturday's Barron's cover. Ryan Detrick notes the Barron's big money poll was decidedly more bearish 6 months and 1,000 Dow (DIA) points ago. 5 Comments
Friday, April 19, 9:52 AM Most stocks are higher in early trade, but big moves in big names are dragging key indexes. IBM -6.4%, GE -3.9%, McDonald's -2.2% are hurting the Dow (DIA -0.3%) following earnings. H-P -5.5% as Blackstone looked under the hood of the PC business and said "no thank you." Down 1.3%, Apple is capping the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ +0.4%). Comment!
Tuesday, March 26, 10:50 PM Sentiment indicators tend to work best at bottoms, writes The Fat Pitch, but it doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention to what's become a bit of froth in the bull camp. Low cash levels, rising margin debt, prominent bears capitulating, and the return of the Dow 36K crew have been well-documented. One you might not have heard of is the Canadian equivalent of Time screaming "BUY!" on its cover. 3 Comments
Thursday, March 14, 11:32 AM A look at all 31 nine-day DJIA winning streaks since 1900 from Ryan Detrick shows the index more than 1% higher 2 months later 18 out of 30 times (#31 to be decided), and about flat in 3 instances. 1 Comment
Tuesday, March 12, 11:05 AM "It's fun to be able, for once, to place yourself on the cheerleaders' side of the U.S. markets," writes Richard Russell, advising his readers to buy the DJIA ETF (DIA). "It makes sense to be on the side of the (Fed)." Russell last week: I've never seen anything like this. 25 Comments
Thursday, January 10, 2:47 PM The rally in the S&P should peak close to 1500 (2% above its current level), says Tom DeMark, calling for at least a 5.5% correction from that point. The well-followed technician has or has had the ear of some of the hedge fund world's biggest guns. He's currently basking in his Dec. 4 bottom call on China, since which the Shanghai Composite has risen 16%. 6 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Monday, December 3, 2012, 7:29 AM Not surprising given the firm's 1575 target for the S&P 500 next year, Goldman's Global Strategy Team upgrades U.S. equities to Overweight for the next 3 months. Global growth is "a hump to get over, then a clear road ahead," is #1 among the Top 10 themes for 2013. 6 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Thursday, November 29, 2012, 8:09 AM Goldman Sachs details its 1575 price target on the S&P 500 in 2013: Expecting better growth than most, the firm likes cyclical over defensive sectors, and tech over staples, telecom, and health care. A "grand bargain" in D.C. along the lines of Simpson-Bowles "would spark a PE multiple expansion and a higher target." 3 Comments [Quick Ideas]

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