Brinker International Inc. (EAT)

All Comments on EAT

  • commenter
    billddrummer
    Sep 09 11:37 AM
    Raw Data Report: Bob's Big Boy, McCormick & Schmick's, Landry's, Macaroni Grill [view article]
    Notice how many Tickermine articles are posted regarding the restaurant industry?

    Do the survey personnel get meals out of it?     Reply
  • commenter
    Alan
    Brochstein
    Aug 09 11:39 PM
    My Website
    Time To Start Nibbling at Restaurants? [view article]
    By full-service, I meant service at the table, not quick-serve or cafeteria - yes. I left off BUCA intentionally due to its very small size ($9mm market cap). BWLD from what I could tell isn't full service. I left off MSSR, MRT and RUTH because they aren't "casual", but probably the same arguments suggest looking at them. CASA isn't in my database. DAVE and DENN could have been included. ELXS is less than micro-cap. GCFB and JAX fell below my minimum market cap, while GRIL isn't in the database. Nor is SHLL. Another I intentionally omitted was KONA. Thanks for the heads-up on these names! Reply
  • commenter
    brombonz
    Aug 09 07:42 PM
    Time To Start Nibbling at Restaurants? [view article]
    "These companies, all of which I believe are "full-service&quo... restaurants, are hopefully an inclusive list - please let me know if I have omitted one."

    I'm just guessing that by "full-service&quo... you mean to exclude quick-service, buffet, cafeteria and take-out, leaving "casual service."

    So this might suggest the inclusion of BUCA, BWLD, CASA, DAVE, DENN, ELXS (but you get sewage equipment, which isn't necessarily appetizing, in the bargain), GCFB, GRIL, JAX, MRT, MSSR, RUTH, or SHLL. In addition ARKR operates both casual and quick service restaurants.     Reply
  • commenter
    Alan
    Brochstein
    Aug 07 02:21 PM
    My Website
    Time To Start Nibbling at Restaurants? [view article]
    Thanks for your comments. Value is a good thing these days, and it sounds like that is their focus. Doesn't sound like my kind of menu - I usually eat out for things I can't cook myself. I also don't eat fried anything. I didn't make it clear in the article, but when I do eat out, I tend to avoid chains because I like to support local institutions and not pay for advertising and corporate overhead. I tend to eat ethnic foods out.

    When you said that you invested "in spite of my comments", I am not sure what you mean. I think restaurants in general make sense as investments, but it looks like CBRL has a ton of debt. Specifically, they have almost $800mm in LT debt and very little equity. Part of what is going on is leveraging up to repurchase stock, which drives down the equity value since they are paying more than book value. So far, they have paid a lot more than the stock is currently worth, and I don't think a recession is a great time to be loading up on debt to buy stock. I could be wrong, but it seems to me that this is one of the last ones investors will want to buy given the increased leverage.     Reply
  • commenter
    Tomato man
    Aug 07 01:41 PM
    Time To Start Nibbling at Restaurants? [view article]
    Alan,
    I would highly recommend you make a stop at the Cracker Barrel Resturant nearest you. Being from Texas, you might enjoy their chicken fried Chicken, their catfish, their fabulous breakfasts with sawmill gravy, their steaks or practically anything on the menu. I make it a point to visit them particularly for their great menu prices and I have never had a disappointing meal. Food quality is consistent from store to store. Managers earnestly approached customers even before the shares plunged, to seek out their comments. I dont think you can beat their value of well done food preparation and service. Debt or not, I have seen their resturants consistently crowded with a clientele of older folks who are as fond of their food as I am. I am happy that they are accesible from interstates for a substantial but not expensive breakfast menu.
    In spite of your comments, I have invested. My vote is based on my total approval of their products and their sensible idea of great food and service at reasonale prices.
    I saw the time as opportune and saw that there is now a strong consideration to buy back stock to raise the share value.
    I say they are in it for the long haul and will still be there when Red Robin Burgers are seen as exorbitant and overpriced and other trendy hangouts cannot endure the economic times ahead.
    Tman     Reply
  • commenter
    sdc13
    Aug 06 05:24 PM
    Time To Start Nibbling at Restaurants? [view article]
    My intention was not to convince anyone to anything.I actually hold stock in rt & acouple of others you mentioned.My point is the mere fact that your invited or employed to write a column suggests your peers respect your opinion.In light of that alot of people give weight to what you say weather or not you give yourself a disclaimer or not.My intent was to ruffle some feathers.Even so you are right rt is leveraged.The other side of that coin is rt has consistantly beat the streets concensus,exept for the 1st Qu. where they were off about .02 .There revenue should beat 1.4 billion in a year where they just revamped every store they own.They also outlined how they planned to tackle the debt they have incurred in the past year in there last conference call.So in conclusion ; last week or two one of the main writers of seeking alpha said go long on rt,sri & others.I didn't agree with everthing he had to say on all subjects but he deffinatly took some time to evaluate and explain his possition.{Not intended as a jab.}I have every faith that allen can justify his own oppinions just like the rest of us.But; regaurdless wheather i'am right or wrong,it's Allen's article & at least 50% of the people who read your article will take it as gospel truth; & oppinions can make or break a stock or a company depending on what you decide is gospel.Thanks for responding Allen. SdC13 Reply
  • commenter
    Bootstrap
    Aug 06 01:26 PM
    My Website
    Time To Start Nibbling at Restaurants? [view article]
    Hi Allan,

    I agree with your broad thesis. I have a write up on my blog regarding one of may favorite restaurants: The Cheesecake Factory.

    You might want to check it out!
    Best,
    Bootstrap     Reply
  • commenter
    Alan
    Brochstein
    Aug 06 01:18 PM
    My Website
    Time To Start Nibbling at Restaurants? [view article]
    Hey, you are going to have to pay me if you want deeper! Kidding aside, I didn't expect a "heads-up" article conveying my observations would provoke such a negative response. I tend to get negative responses when I post negatively about a company or positively about the market or the economy! I think that the quantitative aspects are not only there but that I elaborated on them very specifically - the table, is as they say, worth 1000 words - high leverage, though varied across the companies, extremely discounted valuations on a number of metrics. Not sure what else you would have had me do. Reply
  • commenter
    User 71887
    Aug 06 12:05 PM
    Time To Start Nibbling at Restaurants? [view article]
    Alan, You appear to be a nice guy, educated and probably successful but (in hindsight) you have to admit you practically begged to be stoned. Putting out such a broad thesis without very specific, compelling facts was not wise. Ironically, I agree with your view that restaurants/consumer discretionary may be a good place to consider investing given some pretty beaten down names but you should go much deeper on the specific names and the quantitative logic behind them.

    You did include a disclaimer but then you also contradicted yourself in your bio and some of your comments. I agree repliers should lighten up but so should posters     Reply
  • commenter
    Alan
    Brochstein
    Aug 06 11:39 AM
    My Website
    Time To Start Nibbling at Restaurants? [view article]
    Thanks guys, I really appreciate your comments. Glad I could amuse you Filet Mignon and sorry to have perturbed you so much Jay and SDC. Let me get this straight - you guys think I am lazy and irresponsible? Let me try to address your concerns in order.

    First, I was trying to be funny. If I can't have fun writing these articles on a subject about which I am extremely passionate (stocks and food), well, I am wasting my time. Second, I fully disclosed that I don't know what I am talking about (actually, I do). My goal was to stimulate thinking and encourage dialogue (civil would be nice - I didn't call anyone names). I am running these same ideas by my institutional clients, who seem to think I am onto something perhaps. Here is my free advice to all of you: LIGHTEN UP

    Ok, SDC, congrats... Some reputable firms have buy ratings on RT. One of my clients loves it, but he loved it (fortunately never bought it) from a while ago. I warned him specifically about that one. The fact is that they are extremely leveraged. I don't have to eat there to know that. Second of all, I think restaurants in general are probably reasonable investments now. Sorry you seem to have a special place in your heart for RT - I am not saying to short it, just that they have more wood to chop than others. It's your money - invest in the stock if you want. They have $600mm in debt - I don't know the schedule of when they need to refinance it, but maybe you will lend them the money. I prefer a BJRI or some of the others who don't face these issues.

    Filet, one can pretend to know a company all you want. I actually think that it is better not to delude myself into thinking I know a company so as to prevent overconfidence. I have done very well over the years, and I can't say that "intimate" knowledge of a company is a factor that has helped me one way or the other. I believe that I can read, especially what others think via the internet, and come to a reasonable conclusion about "common knowledge" and then judge if it makes sense. I really liked Krispy Kreme and went there a lot. Never invested. I drink lots of Coca-Cola - don't own it. One of my best stocks this month is National Instruments - I understand it big picture but I would be lying if I told you I understood the details (I am not an engineer). Specifically addressing your rather rude comment about my awareness, $4 gas prices and food inflation are what has already happened. I don't live under a rock - it just appears that the worst is now behind us and apparently priced into the stocks. Why else are they down so much? If you wait for $3 gasoline, these stocks will all be 20% higher.

    Finally, Jay, I live in Texas. I don't eat breakfast out ever, I don't eat sausage. I have heard of Bob Evans - never stepped foot into it. Screening has nothing to do with it - it is taking into account several quantifiable variables. My "screener" doesn't have a qualitative sausage ranking! Lazy and lame? Your comment is quite rude. I spent a lot of time and put a lot of thought into what I believe is a fantastic idea. Because I am honest enough to tell readers that I am no expert on the details and because my style is to incorporate humor, you shouldn't insult me.
    Reply
  • commenter
    jay
    fredrickson
    Aug 06 08:38 AM
    My Website
    Time To Start Nibbling at Restaurants? [view article]
    Alan:

    Your article is kinda lazy and lame. Never heard of Bob Evans? Ever been to the midwest, georgia, florida, northeast? Bob Evans is a restaurant that is always packed for breakfast due to the worlds best sausgae and gravy. Bob also sells sausage in more than 1800 grocery stores around the country.

    For someone who has a bio that says you are an expert screener, this one event may prove otherwise. Or maybe you just don't like sausage and gravy?


    Jay Fredrickson

    i-5south.com
    Reply
  • commenter
    Filet Mignon
    Aug 06 01:39 AM
    Time To Start Nibbling at Restaurants? [view article]
    Funniest article on Seeking Alpha yet.

    Is it really smart to invest in companies you don't really know anything about? Is it smart to tell others to invest in companies you have no idea what their business model is or who their customers are?

    I loved this line: "Natural gas prices have plunged, and food inflation looks now to be behind us." I guess the author never goes to restaurants or gets out of the house period. Otherwise, he would have encountered $4 gasoline to get his car to these restaurants that have freshly printed menus with higher prices on them!

    I'm not sure I would be pouring tons of cash into consumer discretionary stocks right now. The economy is too weak and winter is coming up. These winter heating bills are going to kill the middle class consumer who eats at these establishments. Time will tell.     Reply
  • commenter
    sdc13
    Aug 05 10:35 PM
    Time To Start Nibbling at Restaurants? [view article]
    I beleive this article is alot of bull**** & very irresponsible. Idon't know about all the resteraunt chains but I do know about a couple.Ruby tusedays for instance was moved to a hold buy oppurtunity by s&p.Sabrient research a buy Roshdale hold buy.RT beat the street on last quarterly report.IF you acually look at the income statements,PE,& it's balance sheet I think you will find it's fair market value is around 15.00-16.00 a share.In my [opinion] it's way undervalued; & with on the 5 minute fly need to get the article to the editor to collect my daily ego stroke attitude,it's quite understandable why the price is where it's at.Especially coming from a guy who states he's never even set foot in any of the resteraunts you mention in your article.I live in sw fla. FT.Myers Cape Coral area .The area has really slowed down badly do to lack of new housing starts & an over surplus of old,new,houses & foreclosures on the market.That being said i still see full parking lots as i pass by in the evenings &the couple of times i have eaten there at lunch the crowd has been decent.So maybe you should take a little more care before you speak.It also makes me wonder how accurate a take you have on the other's metioned.I'll bet lunch you guys won't print this or comment!!!Singed really steamed. Reply
  • commenter
    algo41
    Jul 28 07:24 AM
    Raw Data Report: On the Border, Western Sizzlin, Red Lobster [view article]
    Shouldn't you be providing survey size, and positions of people you surveyed? Reply
  • commenter
    borisb
    Jun 13 07:51 PM
    Restaurant Stocks Buck the Headwinds [view article]
    restaurant stocks are not bucking $140 oil ,
    are you on drugs?     Reply
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