Wed, Apr. 22, 5:35 PM
Wed, Apr. 22, 4:37 PM
- eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) reports total payment volume rose 18% to $61B in Q1.
- U.S. revenue up +8% Y/Y and -10% Q/Q (holiday).
- International revenue +2% Y/Y.
- Merchant services volume +26%.
- PayPal active accounts +11% to 165M. Active transactions +24% to top a billion.
- Higher engagement for PayPal was struck with transaction count and monetization per account both higher.
- Guidance: The company sees Q2 revenue of $4.4B-$4.5B vs. $4.67B consensus and EPS of $0.71-$0.73 vs. $0.71 consensus. Full-year revenue of $18.35B-$18.85B seen vs. $18.95 consensus.
- Previously: eBay beats by $0.07, beats on revenue
- EBAY +4.1% after hours.
Wed, Apr. 22, 4:17 PM
Wed, Mar. 18, 2:29 PM
- After dropping slightly yesterday following news Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) is giving Messenger users the ability to send money to each other (though not to merchants), EBAY is seeing steeper losses today. Volume (11M shares) has exceeded a 3-month daily average of 8.5M.
- Unlike PayPal, Facebook doesn't plan to charge transaction fees for the time being. Mark Zuckerberg has suggested he isn't interested in monetizing Messenger until it hits 1B users.
- Though P2P money transfers are a small portion of PayPal's transaction volume, Facebook's service could substantially grow the number of payment card numbers it has on file. The company is in the midst of testing (with the help of PayPal rival Stripe) a Buy button that lets users pay for advertised items without leaving Facebook's site/apps, using previously-saved card data.
- Buried within a Bloomberg column about Facebook's payments launch: Facebook says it now has 700M Messenger users. The company reported having 500M MAUs back in November.
Tue, Mar. 10, 12:51 PM
- ChannelAdvisor (ECOM -3.6%) clients saw their Amazon (AMZN -2.1%) same-store sales rise 22.7% Y/Y in February. That's down from January 27%, and also below the growth seen during 9 of the prior 10 months (December being the exception). Growth peaked at 45.1% in August.
- 38% of tracked Amazon sales relied on Amazon's fulfillment services (FBA), up from 32.2% a year earlier. 2.3% of sales relying on FBA involved non-Amazon transactions. Amazon stated in its Q4 report 3rd-party sellers using FBA grew 65% in 2014, and made up over 40% of Q4 3rd-party units.
- eBay (EBAY -2.5%) continues to lose share: Its ChannelAdvisor same-store sales grew 5.1% in February, down from January's 6.8% and below total U.S. e-commerce growth of 15% (per comScore) - auctions -26.2%, fixed-pride +8.6%, Motors +25.2%. eBay is coming off a Q4 in which its Marketplaces GMV only rose 2% Y/Y (3% U.S. growth, 1% international).
- Search ad-based same-store sales (largely involving Google ads) rose 10.7%, with rising clicks and orders offsetting declining ad prices. Google Shopping-related (NASDAQ:GOOG) same-store sales grew 20.7%.
- Amazon and eBay are both underperforming on a down day for equities. Amazon's volume has been below-average, and eBay's above-average.
Nov. 28, 2014, 12:27 PM
- IBM estimates U.S. Thanksgiving online sales rose 14% Y/Y, aided by a 29.8% increase in sales from department store sites. Mobile respectively accounted for 32.3% and 52.1% of sales and site traffic, up from 25.8% and 42.6% a year ago. Average order value fell by $7 to $125.
- ChannelAdvisor (ECOM -0.9%) reports its clients' Thanksgiving same-store sales rose 20.1%. Their Amazon (AMZN +1.7%) same-store sales rose 25.9%, but their eBay (EBAY +0.8%) sales fell 3%. Notably, all other marketplaces collectively saw 110% growth - retailers such as Best Buy and Sears have been adding marketplaces to complement their direct sales.
- For reference, ChannelAdvisor reported 32.4% and 4.4% Amazon and eBay October same-store growth, respectively. eBay has been losing marketplace share to Amazon for some time, and was hit this summer by Google algorithm changes and a security breach.
- Early reports for Black Friday sales have generally been positive.
Oct. 21, 2014, 2:42 PM
- "Third Point has met with management several times and is confident that Alibaba (BABA +3.8%) can generate long-term value in its core markets and compete in new ones, making it a compelling potential multi-year investment," writes Dan Loeb in his Q3 letter (.pdf).
- Loeb likes how the "substantial network effect" that exists for Alibaba's marketplaces both creates a strong moat and allows the company to obtain "an unrivaled amount of data on Chinese consumers."
- However, it's the "under-appreciated" value of Alibaba's other assets, such as its Alipay stake, the Aliyun cloud infrastructure platform, and the China Smart Logistics JV (48%-owned, handled 38% more packages than UPS in FY14) that intrigue him the most. At current levels, Loeb thinks he's effectively getting free call options on these businesses.
- Following a near-20% gain on his Sony (SNE -0.5%) investment, Loeb decided to bail out. Though approving of Sony's restructuring efforts, he thinks "more urgency will be necessary to definitively turn around the company’s fortunes."
- Loeb has confirmed reports Third Point took a major position in eBay (EBAY +3.3%) in Q3, and says "a meeting with CEO John Donahoe this summer left us impressed by his process-driven approach to optimizing the business."
- He argues the post-split eBay "will offer two appealing growth, relative value, and capital return profiles for investors," sees Marketplaces delivering high-single digits growth, and downplays Apple Pay-related concerns for PayPal on the grounds that Pay is primarily an offline payments solution.
- Like others, Loeb expects an independent PayPal to have more partnership options with tech/Internet giants. He thinks it's only being valued at 11.5x-14.5x 2015E EPS, a range deemed "too cheap for a company growing sales 20% with significant strategic optionality and a strong chance to shape the future of payments."
- Alibaba and eBay have moved higher following the release of Loeb's letter.
Oct. 16, 2014, 7:17 AM
- "The Spin is in," says analyst Mark Mahaney, i.e. the PayPal spinoff catalyst has come and gone, and while there is opportunity for the move to unlock value, markets will be in wait-and-see mode until 2015 H2.
- Reason two: Fundamental trends are weaker-than-expected. "Payments segment appears very top-line strong (especially in the key Merchant Services area), but the investments required to drive this growth have been greater than we anticipated. And Marketplace segment growth is clearly deteriorating, and we are concerned that competition may soon become an acceleratingly difficult challenge."
- Third: "We believe that EBAY (both the Payments and Marketplaces segments) is entering what may be a sustained investment period with both material marketing and product development spend. Given rising competitive challenges (Apple Pay, Amazon Same Day Delivery, International marketplace competition), we think these sustained investments are likely the right move. But the uncertain payoffs will likely create a pause for most eBay investors."
- Mahaney downgrades to Sector Perform with price target cut to $55 from $62.
- Cantor lowers its price target to $60 from $63, but holds onto its Buy rating.
- Shares -3.2% premarket
- Previously: eBay issues light Q4 guidance; Marketplaces growth slows
Oct. 15, 2014, 4:33 PM
- EBAY expects Q4 revenue of $4.85B-$4.95B and EPS of $0.88-$0.91, mostly below a consensus of $5.16B and $0.91.
- The company notes the existence of "rapidly changing competitive environments in commerce and payments" - Amazon and Stripe are likely nodding in approval - and says it highlights the value of splitting Marketplaces and PayPal.
- Nonetheless, PayPal's Q3 numbers were healthy. Payments revenue +20% Y/Y (an even growth rate with Q2) to $1.95B ; total payment volume +29% (also even with Q2) to $56.6B.
- PayPal active accounts grew by 4.4M (up from Q2's 4M) to 157M. PayPal Credit +29%. Payments take rate fell to 3.45% from 3.53% in Q2 and 3.7% a year ago.
- Marketplaces was softer: Revenue only +6% (down from Q2's 9%) to $2.16B. GMV +9% to $20.1B, after growing +12% in Q2. U.S. GMV +7%, international +11%. Active buyers rose by 3.4M to 152M.
- PayPal mobile payment volume +72% to $12B; Marketplaces mobile volume +41% to $7B. PayPal is set to process 1B mobile transactions in 2014.
- GAAP opex +17% to $2.18B. Only $8M was spent on buybacks.
- EBAY -3.1% AH. Q3 results, PR.
Oct. 13, 2014, 12:53 PM
- Though considering tech stocks "somewhat overvalued," famed VC/PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel thinks the problem pales when compared with a bond/fixed-income bubble "of massive size." (video)
- Thiel: "Tech investors always overrate growth and always underrate durability ... 75%-80% of the value of these companies exists a decade or more in the future ... You can measure growth, but you can't measure durability."
- Thiel also reiterates his view that Alibaba (BABA -0.1%), like other Chinese Internet names, is a political entity. "You're betting on Jack Ma staying in the good graces of the Communist Party."
- He's a fan of the eBay/PayPal (EBAY -1%) split, but disagrees with Carl Icahn's call for PayPal to go on an acquisition spree. "I think mergers only make sense when there are real synergies .. and it's not obvious what the synergy between PayPal and any other business would be at this point."
- GSV Capital (GSVC +1%) might be disappointed to hear Thiel state he thinks "it's going to be a while" before analytics software vendor Palantir (co-founded by Thiel) goes public. Palantir, valued at $9B in a late-2013 funding round, made up 11.2% of GSV's net asset value at the end of Q2.
- A cautious stance is shown towards Bitcoin (COIN, OTCQB:BTCS). "I think it's worked on the level of a currency ... but it's not yet worked on the level of a payments system, and you need to get the payments system to work."
- As data breaches pile up, Thiel expects cybersecurity to remain a big problem - "So much commerce is happening on the Internet and we often have no good intuition of how poor the security is." - that needs to be addressed by software. Cybersecurity plays FireEye (FEYE +3.1%) and CyberArk (CYBR +6.5%) are among the high-beta tech names rallying today.
- Tech ETFs: XLK, VGT, TECL, IYW, ROM, TDIV, TECS, IGM, RYT, QTEC, PSCT, FTEC, FXL, REW, MTK, PTF
Oct. 1, 2014, 8:03 AM
- Following yesterday's 7.5% gain in eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) amid the PayPal spinoff announcement, Jefferies, JPMorgan, JMP Securities, and Wedbush all pull their Buy (or Buy equivalent) ratings on the stock.
- "We do not see benefits to the PayPal business from the spin-off and expect some profit leakage to eBay, as well as dis-synergies," says Wedbush's Gil Luria. "Given the more favorable structure to BABA vis-à-vis Alipay, we would expect a commercial agreement between PayPal and eBay to be somewhat less favorable to PayPal compared to the current presentation of the profit split."
- Shares -2.8% premarket
Sep. 30, 2014, 11:02 AM
- Having just appeased one activist (Carl Icahn) by announcing plans to spin off PayPal, eBay (EBAY +6.8%) is now set to contend with another: Dan Loeb's Third Point LLC reportedly has a "significant position" in eBay, and has held talks with outgoing CEO John Donahoe.
- eBay remains sharply higher, albeit off its premarket highs. Street commentary about the spinoff has been positive - Cowen thinks both Marketplaces and PayPal will be better-equipped to deal with rivals as independent companies, and calls Amex's Dan Schulman a "compelling choice" to run PayPal. With Marketplaces making up 27% of PayPal's Q2 transactions, overlap between the businesses is deemed "manageable."
- SunTrust thinks eBay is worth somewhere between $55.72-$88.74/share on a sum-of-the-parts basis. Re/code notes an independent PayPal could have an easier time recruiting talent and battling with upstarts such as Apple and Stripe; the latter has recently scored deals with Facebook and Twitter.
Sep. 30, 2014, 9:11 AM
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