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- Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
- Replicate The Yale Endowment With These ETFs [view article]
- Tracking Mean Reversion After Bad Months [view article]
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- From The Horse’s Mouth: Yale's Endowment Officer Makes Financial Sense [view article]
- No Present Tense in the Stock Market [view article]
- Choosing Your Portfolio Risk Tolerance [view article]
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Outlook for Select Sector ETFs [view article]
- Do ETF Investors Care About Expense Ratios? [view article]
- The Foreign Equity Conundrum [view article]
- Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
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- Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In
- Replicating Portfolios with ETFs
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- No Present Tense in the Stock Market
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Tracking Mean Reversion After Bad Months
- A Month of Seeing Red
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Some Advice from Warren Buffet for Difficult Times
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Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
When you hear that kind of argumentation, you understand why the market is so inefficient.... Don t dream Gabe... Staglation fear is spreading... look at the different CPIs, PPIs in all the different economies. High oil prices doesn t come from speculation, you ve got structural issues now, supply issues more than demand issues. Accordingly, it will weigh on costs.... And the main problem is cost inflation that will accelerate inevitably. It means that central banks will raise rates now. China is not anymore a safe haven as well. Finally, if you look at the earnings growth estimates for this year (excluding financials), you still have 14% growth ! How could you believe it is sustainable?... So the street has to revise down.If you look at technicals, that s not good as well. All the rebounds are weak and driven by short covering, but mutual funds are not ready to buy this market in this context because there is no catalysts... Reply
Replicate The Yale Endowment With These ETFs [view article]
Excellent--looking forward to following up... ReplyTracking Mean Reversion After Bad Months [view article]
It would be interesting to combine a mean reversion approach based on valuations by coupling it with asset classes that have historically shown strong positive or negative correlation. I've been trying to come up with an adequate algorithm but it's quite tricky and can leave you exposed to higher risk. There is a website (www.assetcorrelation.c...) that publishes up to date correlation matrices each day for the past few months that I've been tracking and things have been quite out of whack recently. Replym
Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
Today (July 8, 2008)’s Last Two Hours’ RallyWhat a prudent trader looks for are extreme values before putting in his trades. But the market does not always oblige by steadily heading towards those extreme values, positive or negative.
The readings in SPY and QQQQ were mildly positive as of yesterday, July 7, 2008. It would have been better if there were no rally during the last two hours today, if a stronger, more sustainable rally is to become more likely.
As it is, we now have a premature rally, that began during the last two hours of today’s trading. This also means that the movement will likely be limited before a re-test of the recent low ensues.
Reply
Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
Gabe, you are crazy. How would an implosion in Europe and emerging markets signal record rally? This market is still going lower, it's a good oppertunity to add to your SDS, DXD ect...Love the charts, this is the best thing on this site. Replyborenstein
Wednesday Outlook: Bulls Storm In [view article]
This is only the beginnig of the unprecedented rally.The recession that most of the experts are referring to ,statistically does not exist(two consecutive quarterly declines in the GDP).Market "Bears " will have to adjust their positions(short)to reflect the true state of economy(deceleration),... a wishfull thinking(recession).
Short covering is only a partial argument for the stock market rally.
The ultimate "engine" responsible for the record equity rally will be the Great Economic European and Emerging market implosion,driven by the high rates and the record leverage in these geographic/economic areas.The flight to quality(dollar) that will follow ,will overwhelm the "shorts" and the experts. Reply
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
great as usual and much appreciated. ReplyTuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Hi Dave, You often talk about "da boyz" and how they manipulate the market. Being somewhat naive about this, would you explain sometime what they got out of doing that. Do they, for example, pump the market up and then sell immediately? Does that work? Or are they trying to change the overall longer term direction? Does that work? I don't see how either one of these is really worth doing.Thanks.
-- Russ Reply
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
seems to me there's a lotta bears in the audience today.prolly means a run-up to quicken their heartbeats. Reply
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Roo Rah for the PPT! If those guys would get out of the way, we could have a good flush and get this this crap over. If they had stayed out of it in 98, we would never have never gotten on this boat in the first place. Looks like we are in for crashus interuptus, a relief rally, and then the final plunge into Davey Jones locker. Oh well, I needed better point to set some shorts. ReplyTuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
hmm. gold went up due to a weaker dollar in the first place. why doesn't the fed contract the money supply?one problem ~ oil supply. I believe can be temporary...fuel from algae DOES look realistic and promising in the near term.
the other problem ~ i remember gold at 300...if the fed did contract the money supply that price would come back, or something near it. And contract the money supply is what the Fed did after the 1929 crash...if any meaty connection can be made i'm not sure.
they've been crashing the dollar to usher in the Amero. possibly.
Until we get abundant energy, we can count on destabilized markets. And our screwed up currency doesn't help...and if the nations of earth get tired of paying for their oil with dollars, we could have another problem...
Thanks Fry ~ always insightful Reply
Lieberman
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
The fed and central banks have been holding gold down as a last resort to fake us into believing the world is not in panic mode.Believe them at your own risk...
I (and others) will buy GLD this morning at levels not seen yet, and Gold will rise in the next few weeks at rates so fast that there will be no stopping it. We have waited as we watched the heavy hand of market manipulation hold the top on the top down on a pressure cooker...
I believe it is as low as it will ever be in our lifetime (+/-3.00 intraday the next two volatile weeks). Buy now or cry later. Reply
Tiedeman
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
Some say gold to 1,600. GLD is one to watch. ReplyTiedeman
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
The market looks weak. I do not see any news that will spawn a real sustainable move up. The S&P 500 is going to 1000. ReplyConsidine
From The Horse’s Mouth: Yale's Endowment Officer Makes Financial Sense [view article]
Ranger Ric:First "hedge like" asset classes require considerable care. I have not written about these but they are certainly worth examining. I prefer to get as much as I can get from basic asset allocation, etc. Public private equity funds are a different animal that private equity of course...I have some doubts about the viability of a public private equity stock: a lot of the argument for private equity is that a private firm can be run more efficiently than a public one--so what happens when they go public? BX and FIG do not exactly inspire confidence...
As to why Swensen does not look at utilities as an asset class: I don't know. I think that utilities look like the kind of thing he would like. This is an interesting question. Obviously I see utilities as a rather special "class."
The idea that the right portfolio changes over time is correct. In fact, the old idea among institutional investors of a permanent "policy portfolio" is quite outdated. Inst. investors increasingly revisit asset allocations and shift their portfolios as the world changes.
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