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- A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
- More Thoughts on Mohamed El-Erian's 'When Markets Collide' [view article]
- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Global Stock Markets: Going Nowhere Fast [view article]
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- On 'Cramer's Way', EAFE and Shorting Oil [view article]
- Financial Markets: The Era of Caution [view article]
- Three 'ex-ETF' Ideas [view article]
- Key ETF Performance [view article]
- Total Returns by Country Since March 2003 [view article]
- Thursday's Stock Rally Means Little to Trends [view article]
Recent EFA Articles
- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- More Thoughts on Mohamed El-Erian's 'When Markets Collide'
- On 'Cramer's Way', EAFE and Shorting Oil
- Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Moving Beyond EAFE
- Global Stock Markets: Going Nowhere Fast
- Three 'ex-ETF' Ideas
- Key ETF Performance
- Financial Markets: The Era of Caution
- Full List of Articles »
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Jackson
To Rebalance or Not? The Moment of Truth [view article]
Mitch, take a look at Phil DeMuth's attack on rebalancing here:seekingalpha.com/artic...
Would love to hear your thoughts on it. Reply
From The Horse’s Mouth: Yale's Endowment Officer Makes Financial Sense [view article]
This is an excellent approach if only we can learn to set the course and await the results. I management "otherpeoplesmone... and they are often beyond appreciation of rationality (or Yale): "just the numbers please, and is that really your fee for these results? " Very enjoyable and well presented. ReplyAsset Allocation: The Only Game in Town [view article]
This article merely emphasizes what every financial advisor and most mutual funds emphasize. I agree with the premise, but it is not anything new for long term most investors. ReplyFundamentally Weighted ETFs: Mixed Performance in '07 [view article]
I think it is time to see through the veil of what a cap-weighted index really is……a glorified momentum index. WAIT! That is comment is sacrilegious! Defend yourself!Okay, one only needs to look at the sector mix of an index to see the change in market weight caused by the momentum effect. As an example, In December of 2002 the E-Trade Russell 2000 Index Fund composition was approximately 70% small-cap value/ 30% small–cap growth. Three years later (December 2006) the index was approximately 20% small-cap value/ 80% small–cap growth. Imagine trying to beat the small-cap index as a small-cap value manager during those three years!
Let’s take it a step further; pretend you were a small-cap growth manager during this booming three year run. Your track record looks good as you capitalized on this momentum and you soundly beat the small-cap index. On the wings of good fortune you get hired by the institutions and investors. Then the enviable happens, the sector rotates back to small-cap value (and/or some other asset class) and your performance drops and you fall out of favor.
In this example its evident indexing small-cap stocks using a cap-weighted approach capitalizes on the change in momentum while fundamental indexing would have given a more accurate description of how the small-cap securities actually performed.
I don’t have enough data points to judge weather fundamental indexing is better or worse than cap-weighting indexing but I do believe the momentum effect may favor cap-weighting, albeit with more volatility. So the trade-off of risk-adjusted returns is open for debate. What is clear to me is that cap-weighting is nothing more than a momentum strategy masked in the guise of a passive strategy. I’m sure if this were a chat log I’d burn in flames! I applaud Rob Arnott’s work on fundamental indexing and appreciate anyone challenging the norms of convention wisdom.
Reply
Asset Allocation: The Only Game in Town [view article]
i agree completely ReplyFundamentally Weighted ETFs: Mixed Performance in '07 [view article]
Yeah, goos stuff. I am a staunch Wisdomtree supporter and ETF owner. I experienced the brunt of the underperformance. For now, I am giving the beenfit of the doubt to the strategy. There needs to be a much larger sample than one year. The backtesting of the funds shows a much different story.That being said, last years underperfomance was very diappointing to me. I walked through my doubt and fear and actually accumulated more.
I am a holder of DHS, EZY, DPN, DND, DGS and the WSDT tree stock itself. My positions are long term, I am a buy and hold investor. Reply
Recession Talk Has Gone From 'If' to 'How Bad' [view article]
Thanks to all for the comments. I do not write this kind of article reinforce my own opinion. Regardless of what I would like to happen, the economy has its own mind, so to speak. And, I don't know if we are going to have a serious recession or not. But, there are many headwinds that give me cause of caution.johnheiderscheit and seven West, it is never the absolute rate of employment or unemployment that we look to as signs of recessions; it is the rate of change. I'm afraid that today's unemployment rates are almost a full point higher than this time last year. This is not a good trend. Also, keep in mind that unemployment is a lagging indicator, not a leading one.
The same is true for inflation. It is at a higher rate this last year than in previous years--again, not a good sign. Also, consumer spending, the ultimate culprit in our drama, has not held up well. December sales were far from robust--an ominous sign, to me.
But, I hope both of you are right. I certainly don't want a recession. Although I am free of job market constraints myself, it never does my portfolio any good to go through a downturn.
robyt and Danial Magid, thanks for the good words. And, thanks, Danial, for introducing me to a new acronym, DINKS.
Best wishes,
Ray Reply
Recession Talk Has Gone From 'If' to 'How Bad' [view article]
Ray,Great article. I really don't need to follow any posted inflation stats. All I need to do, is go to the market and see how much I pay for groceries vs. how much I paid for them 2,3,4 and 5 years ago. We are certainly experiencing a higher than normal/healthy inflation! The stimulus package will surely not help, but at least it puts a little money in people's bags, so they can sleep better for the next 4 months.. awaiting the check :) The real problem is with affordability and disposable income. Until those home prices drop significantly, consumers hands will be tied and as we can already observe, low funds rate does nothing for consumers, it is simply out there to help banks stave off a bankruptcy.
Empirically, speaking to friends, I have noticed that DINKS (double income no kids) can't even tell that most consumers are in rough waters.
Well written, Ray. Reply
Recession Talk Has Gone From 'If' to 'How Bad' [view article]
well thought out article i thought - one without the emotion of many of the bloggers on this site. To the previous commentor, headline inflation at the factory is the highest in 17 years! Wheat futures have doubled in price in 8 months, gold is at highs (although not inflation adjusted highs), oil is near all time highs. Do you still think inflation is not a problem. The U.S. is just fuelling another bubble. The money from the stimulus will just be spent on rubbish and not to pay off debts anyway. ReplyRecession Talk Has Gone From 'If' to 'How Bad' [view article]
you have it all wrong.. its not if to how bad but from if to never was.sorry Ray you have the story wrong wrong wrong.. lets see Unemployment is historically low, interest rates are VERY low - oil is coming down hard, inflation is tame, Earnings are mostly beating ( ex- financials) and companies have more cash on their balance sheets than ever before
REPEAT AFTER ME : THERE IS NO RECESSION.. Reply
Considine
From The Horse’s Mouth: Yale's Endowment Officer Makes Financial Sense [view article]
Yes-there are supposed to be figures. I have asked SA to re-post this article. It is available in complete form here:www.quantext.com/David... Reply
heit
Recession Talk Has Gone From 'If' to 'How Bad' [view article]
With unemployment claims at extreme lows, interest rates on ARMs and other consumer loans falling sharply, retails sales holding up decently, big fiscal stimuli on the way, and an easy first quarter comp the economy is not in recession at this time. I suspect within a few days the talk will turn from "how bad" back to "if". ReplyFrom The Horse’s Mouth: Yale's Endowment Officer Makes Financial Sense [view article]
Geoff,Aren't there supposed to be some charts with this article? JK Reply
Considine
From The Horse’s Mouth: Yale's Endowment Officer Makes Financial Sense [view article]
Hi TraderPig:It is always good to be skeptical. QPP/QRP have been extensively tested out-of-sample in varying market conditions and the portfolio projections of risk and return for both stocks and funds turn out well.
I tend to run the model using three years of data, but the model the combines these data with long-term capital markets data on risk/return relationships--so its not as though the model only knows about the last three years.
For an example of this kind of testing, see this article:
seekingalpha.com/artic...
Regards,
Geoff Reply
From The Horse’s Mouth: Yale's Endowment Officer Makes Financial Sense [view article]
Dr. Considine,I've followed your ariticles for some time and would like to thank you for those very insightful thoughts.
I noticed that you'd like to include some individual stocks into the portfolio with some broard market index products (index funds or ETFs). My question is: is the QPP tool suitable to analyse the risks/returns of these individual stocks? I'm actually not comfortable with the rusults of these stocks when the analysis only involves with 3-5 year data. There're too many non-systematic risks for the individual stocks.
Thank you.
TraderPig Reply