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Friday, April 27, 2012, 12:59 PM
The Irish finance ministry about halves its GDP growth outlook to 0.7% from 1.3%, bringing the forecast more into line with the Irish central bank (0.5% from 1.8%) and the IMF (0.5%). The ministry raises its debt/GDP estimate to 120.3% from 118.3%.
3 Comments[Global & FX]
Thursday, April 26, 2012, 8:30 AM
The Troika delivers a passing grade to Ireland following its review mission to Dublin, setting the stage for disbursement of another €3.7B in rescue aid. "Nonetheless, considerable challenges remain. Economic growth is expected to remain moderate" - is that what 0 is called these days? (earlier on Ireland)
Comment![Global & FX]
Thursday, April 26, 2012, 7:13 AM
The Irish government insists it will not postpone a referendum on the EU fiscal treaty despite the possible election of Hollande in France who says his first order of business will be redoing the pact. (waning support at home too)
1 Comment[Global & FX]
Thursday, April 26, 2012, 7:07 AM
Six weeks ahead of the vote, Irish support for the EU fiscal treaty comes into doubt as public reads the newspapers about Spain, Holland, Greece, and France. The referendum has 30% support against 23% against, with a whopping 39% (and rising) undecided. The Irish trade union movement announces it will not support the treaty.
Comment![Global & FX]
Monday, April 23, 2012, 10:01 AM
Ireland's 2011 underlying budget deficit for 2011 hits 9.4%, beating the EU target of 10.6%. You'll notice "underlying" in that first sentence - stripped out were "one-off" capital injections into the nation's banks, without which the deficit was 13.1%. Despite slowing growth, the government remains confident about hitting its 8.6% target for 2012.
Comment![Global & FX]
Wednesday, April 11, 2012, 8:43 AM
Add oil as another reason for the performance divergence of EU economies. A sharp increase in the price of crude subtracts twice as much from GDP growth in Ireland and Italy as it does in Germany, estimates Moodys. For Greece, it does 3X the damage.
1 Comment[Global & FX, Energy]
Thursday, April 5, 2012, 11:28 AM
Contrary to positive reports about the state of its government finances, "Ireland has made no measurable progress with regard to consolidating its budget," asserts Commerzbank. Despite revenues that rose 10%, the deficit through Q1 is higher than last year. "The planned deficit reduction by 1.5% of GDP has thus moved out of reach."
2 Comments[Global & FX]
Thursday, March 29, 2012, 11:24 AM
Ireland secures a deal allowing it to make a scheduled €3.1B payment due to Anglo Irish Bank by issuing a bond instead of writing a check. The bank will still get its cash by presenting the bond to the Bank of Ireland/ECB for collateral against funding, and Ireland now has an easier time of hitting its 8.6% deficit target this year. Still dizzy. (previous)
2 Comments[Global & FX, Financials]
Tuesday, March 27, 2012, 10:28 AM
Ireland sets a date of May 31 for the national referendum on the EU fiscal treaty. The most recent poll shows support for the bill hitting a new high of 49%, with 33% opposed.
Comment![Global & FX]
Monday, March 26, 2012, 10:01 AM
Irish house prices are steepening their decline, down 17.8% Y/Y in February, against a 17.4% drop in January, and 10.8% a year ago. The official data has prices off 49% from the peak, and Davy chief economist Conall Mac Coille believes the bottom won't come until they've declined 65-70%.
Comment![Global & FX]
Friday, March 23, 2012, 10:52 AM
Ireland is optimistic it will ink a deal with the ECB over the weekend to skip a €3.1B cash payment to one of its failed banks. The country instead hopes to print up a bond to give to the bank. The bank will then present said bond to the ECB as collateral to borrow €3.1B (or thereabouts). We remain dizzy. (earlier)
3 Comments[Global & FX, Financials]
Thursday, March 22, 2012, 9:18 AM
Austerity poster-boy Ireland slipped back into recession at 2011's end, as sliding exports had GDP shrinking 0.2% in Q4 following Q3's 1.1% decline. For all 2011, GDP increased 0.7%, ending 3 consecutive years of contraction.
Comment![Global & FX]
Wednesday, March 21, 2012, 3:10 PM
Ireland's central bank chief is set to ask ECB permission to delay a €3.1B payment due this month on a promissory note. The money is to go to Anglo Irish Bank, which can then buy Irish debt which it can then present to the ECB as collateral for funding with which it can then reduce its borrowings from the Irish central bank. We're getting dizzy.
10 Comments[Global & FX, Financials]
Tuesday, March 20, 2012, 9:05 AM
The Irish referendum on approving the EU fiscal pact will be a one-off deal as a repeat vote will not be offered, says government minister Brendan Howlin. Unlike other EU treaties, unanimous support from member states is not required, so the pact will move forward with or without Ireland.
Comment![Global & FX]
Friday, March 16, 2012, 2:22 PM
Though headlines over an oil strike off the southwest coast of Ireland tip toward hyperbole, the region can still see meaningful production if deeper waters to the west also contain oil than can be drilled. The government estimates that the Irish Atlantic Margin region has oil and gas reserve potential of 10B barrels of oil equivalent. Ireland-focused ETFs IRL and EIRL include energy plays.
Comment![Global & FX]
Friday, March 16, 2012, 9:29 AM
The growth outlook for the eurozone has deteriorated over the past 3 months, says Ernst & Young in its Spring quarterly forecast, now expecting 2012 GDP to contract 0.5%. Among the individual countries, Ireland's GDP is expected to fall 0.1% against a previous forecast of +0.5%. (full report)
3 Comments[Global & FX]