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Tue, Jul. 1, 3:45 AM
- Emerging market bond sales have soared past analyst estimates for the first half of 2014, as investors flock to higher yields. $268B of bonds sold so far this year, compared to the $240B sold in the same period of 2013.
- Due to a dovish Fed, U.S. yields have fallen this year to 2.5% from end-2013 levels of 3%. As a result, increased demand for higher yield has investors trading emerging market bonds despite geo-political risks.
- ETFs: EMB, PCY, ELD, EMLC, EMCB, VWOB, EMCD, HYEM, EMHY, LEMB, EMAG, CEMB, EBND, PFEM, EMSH, SEMF, IEMF, LEMF
Wed, Feb. 12, 4:50 PM
- "The default rate is non-existent," he says, agreeing that fundamentals in high-yield look good. "Instead of a default cycle, we've had a refinance cycle." The issue, however, is valuation. At the end of 2013, the 30-year Treasury yielded about 4%, while BB corporates "unbelievably" yielded just 4.5% - a "remarkably low incremental yield."
- His feelings about overvaluation extend to the investment grade corporate market (LQD) as well.
- Most curious to Gundlach is how universally the long bond is hated at 4%, while junk yielding 4.5% gets so much love.
- Besides Treasurys, Gundlach sees value in emerging market bonds. The risk is in the currency, but this can be eliminated by buying dollar-denominated paper.
- High yield ETFs: HYG, JNK, HYLD, HYS, SJNK, PHB, BSJF, SJB, BSJE, HYHG, BSJG, BSJI, ANGL, BSJH, HYLS, XOVR, THHY, UJB, QLTC, SHYG, BSJK, HYZD, BSJJ, HYND
- Investment grade ETFs: LQD, VCSH, VCIT, CORP, VCLT, CSJ, CIU, CFT, SCPB, LWC, CLY, ITR, QLTA, IGHG, PFIG, SLQD, IGS, CBND, IGU, QLTB
- EM bond ETFs: EMB, PCY, ELD, EMLC, EMCB, VWOB, EMCD, ILB, HYEM, EMHY, LEMB, ITIP, EMAG, EBND, GTIP, PFEM, EMSH, SEMF, IEMF, LEMF
Tue, Jan. 7, 12:12 PM
- The EGShares TCW EM Short Term Investment Grade Bond ETF (SEMF), Intermediate Term Investment Grade Bond ETF (IEMF), and Long Term Investment Grade Bond ETF (LEMF) will begin trading on January 8th; offering exposure to both sovereign and corporate bonds.
- Each new fund will charge 0.65%, which is above the average expense ratio for this sector, but few funds currently offer specific duration exposure to emerging market bonds.
- Other emerging market bond ETFs: EMB, PCY, ELD, EMLC, EMCB, VWOB, ILB, EMCD, LEMB, ITIP, EBND, EMAG, GTIP, PFEM, EMSH
Nov. 21, 2013, 9:12 AM
- Emerging market bond ETF investors worried about duration risk will have their first short-duration fund to choose from starting today with the launch of ProShares' Short-Term USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMSH). The fund has an expense ratio of 0.5%.
- The underlying index only selects paper with a fixed rate and maturity of 0-5 years, with a weighted average yield-to-maturity of three years or less. Sovereign, and corporate - both investment and speculative grade - will be included.
- As comparison, the iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB) has a 7-year effective duration.
- Corporate EM bond ETFs: EMCB, EMCD, HYEM, EMHY
- Government EM bond ETFs: EMB, PCY, ELD, EMLC, ILB, LEMB, ITIP, EBND, GTIP, PFEM
Nov. 13, 2013, 11:33 AM
- Market Vectors files paperwork for the Emerging Markets Aggregate Bond ETF EMAG, with an after-fee-waiver annual expense ratio of 0.49%.
- The fund will hold both sovereign and corporate, and both investment grade and high-yield paper from a large number of emerging market countries. At the end of Q3, the tracked index held about 1,800 bonds from a total of 694 issuers.
- Market Vectors' Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (EMLC) has just over $1B in AUM.
- Related ETFs: EMB, PCY, ELD, EMLC, ILB, LEMB, ITIP, EBND, GTIP, PFEM, EMCB, EMCD, HYEM, EMHY
Oct. 4, 2013, 1:47 PM
- Market Vectors announced earlier this week that it's popular fund for Latin American bond exposure will undergo a number of changes, including a new name, ticker, and index.
- BONO will be rebranded later this year as the Market Vectors Emerging Markets Aggregate Bond ETF and trade under the ticker EMAG to reflect the new investment objective; to seek and track the price and performance of the Market Vectors EM Aggregate Bond Index.
- Ed Lopez, Marketing Director with Market Vectors in the recent press release, "we are seeking to introduce an efficient means for investors to gain access to a broad exposure of emerging markets bonds in a single ETF."
- Effected ETFs: ILF, GML, FLN, EMB, PCY
Sep. 28, 2013, 1:30 PM
- "Sovereign emerging-market yields today are consistent with their averages between 2003 and 2007, but U.S. Treasury rates are only about half as high," writes Shuli Ren, in a bullish piece on emerging-market debt.
- The premise is simple: 17 consecutive weeks of EM bond fund outflows has "flooded out irrational exuberance that had piled up over the winter and spring" and brought the market back down to earth, even as institutional demand has remained strong, suggesting retail investors have overreacted to taper talk.
- With the Fed still striking a highly accommodative tone, emerging-market debt could rally as investors discover the relatively attractive valuations.
- ETFs - EMB, LEMB, PCY, EMLC, ELD, PFEM, EBND, VWOB; Asia: ALD; Latin America: BONO
Aug. 15, 2013, 11:12 AM
- Anything paying income is again being particularly hard hit by the rise in Treasury yields (the 10-year now at a 2-year high of 2.8%).
- Selections in mREITs (REM -2.1%), (MORT -1.9%) include RAIT Financial Trust (RAS -4.1%) - whose IRT had an ill-timed IPO yesterday and Ellington Residential (EARN -4.8%) - the market not caring about reasonable Q2 performance, a hefty discount to book, and the launch of a repurchase program. Other mREITs: CYS Investments (CYS -3.6%), Apollo (AMTG -3%), Newcastle (NCT -5%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), Arlington Asset (AI -1.2%). A leveraged ETF play: MORL.
- Hanging in there relatively well are the BDCs: Fifth Street (FSC -1.3%), Triangle (TCAP -1%), MCG (MCGC -1.2%), Hercules (HTGC -1.2%), Ares (ARCC -0.3%).
- BDC ETFs: BDCS, BDCL, BIZD.
- In emerging markets fixed income, a trader takes note of EDD, a closed-end fund now trading at more than a 15% discount to NAV.
- Emerging market bond ETFs: EMB, LEMB, PCY, EMLC, ELD, PFEM, EBND, VWOB.
Jul. 19, 2013, 1:11 PMNearly $18B flowed into U.S. equity funds (VTI) in the past week, the biggest gusher of money since June 2008, according to EPFR. About $6,5B of that amount went into the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The same week saw more than $1B pulled out of investment grade (LQD) debt and Treasury funds, but $4B put to work in high yield (more on high yield's bounce). Emerging market debt funds (EMB) continue to suffer, seeing another $1.3B pulled. | 6 Comments
Jul. 15, 2013, 3:21 PMHigh-grade corporate bonds (LQD) have a fan in JPMorgan, which looks for further tightening in spreads given increasing demand from pension and insurance buyers as they turn away from high yield (HYG, JNK) and emerging-market debt (EMB). Another plus: Investment-grade corporate paper tends to have lower duration than, say, long-term Treasurys (TLT), of which the team is also bearish. JPMorgan's a big bank, and someone else there has a different opinion of corporates. | 1 Comment
Jul. 11, 2013, 3:47 PMGoldman Sachs has been a buyer of emerging market bonds (EMB) amid the worst rout since 2008, says Michael Swell, co-head of global bond portfolios. Two "sweet spots" are the short-dated paper of Brazil pricing in big interest rate hikes, and long-dated paper of Mexico yielding north of 7% with inflation below 5% and falling. At the same time, Swell is cutting exposure to U.S. Treasurys and expects the 10-year to migrate towards 3.75-4% once the Fed exits. | Comment!
Jul. 2, 2013, 8:01 AM
Jun. 28, 2013, 12:19 PM"The China growth story is starting to unravel," says Deutsche Bank and this - not the Fed - is behind market skittishness. The PBOC's seeming desire to engineer a squeeze in the banking system is compounding the pressure. While a full-blown financial crisis may be unlikely, there remains a strong chance of a yuan (CNY, CYB) devaluation, says the team. Continuing strength in the greenback should suck even more liquidity out of emerging markets (EEM, VWO, DEM, EMB). | 1 Comment
Jun. 27, 2013, 12:07 PM"I was wrong about Treasurys (TLT, TBT)," Jeff Gundlach tells the WSJ of his recent expectation the 10-year yield would never hit 2.5%. However, he tells CNBC, "July will not be a repeat of May and June ... the liquidation cycle appears to have run its course with emerging market bonds (EMB), junk bonds (HYG, JNK), munis (MUB), and MBS (MBB) now recovering sharply." Gundlach has scheduled a special conference call for this afternoon. | 5 Comments
Jun. 22, 2013, 9:30 AMIt's "total capitulation" in fixed income (AGG, BND), says BAML's Michael Hartnett. The "blood bath" includes the largest-ever three-week rush of bond-fund redemptions, $2.6B leaving (2nd largest outflow ever) the Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB), and mortgage-backed securities (MBB), municipal bonds (MUB), and TIPS (TIP) funds each now showing net outflows for 2013. | 47 Comments
Jun. 21, 2013, 10:58 AMWas it only April when investors stampeded to get a piece of Rwanda's $400M 10-year note sale, priced to yield just 6.87%? Two months later it's a different story. Romania yesterday rejected all bids at a 7-year sale, joining failed auctions from South Korea, Russia, Colombia, and even China in the last 2 weeks. EMB is off nearly 12% since the Rwanda bell-ringer. | 3 Comments
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