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- Confluence of Factors Boost Dollar Wednesday [view article]
- Near-Term Dollar Rally Possible As Fed's Plosser Voices Rate Hike Urgency [view article]
- Correlation Between the Dollar and Fed Fund Futures [view article]
- Dollar and Euro: Different Week, Same Drivers [view article]
- Thinking About Currency ETFs and Sovereign Debt [view article]
- Volatile Market Conditions: To Stay Profitable, Make Quick Trades [view article]
- 17-Year-High Cost-of-Living Surge Worries Bernanke, Too [view article]
- It Feels Like a Sell Everything Day [view article]
- Bernanke's Bleak Outlook Could Send Dollar to New Lows [view article]
- Dollar on the Defensive Pending Bernanke Testimony, Retail Sales Data [view article]
- A Surprise in Store for the Dollar? [view article]
- Eurozone Still To Be Avoided [view article]
loading ...Recent ERO Articles
- Confluence of Factors Boost Dollar Wednesday
- Near-Term Dollar Rally Possible As Fed's Plosser Voices Rate Hike Urgency
- Correlation Between the Dollar and Fed Fund Futures
- Thinking About Currency ETFs and Sovereign Debt
- Volatile Market Conditions: To Stay Profitable, Make Quick Trades
- Dollar and Euro: Different Week, Same Drivers
- 17-Year-High Cost-of-Living Surge Worries Bernanke, Too
- Bernanke's Bleak Outlook Could Send Dollar to New Lows
- It Feels Like a Sell Everything Day
- Dollar on the Defensive Pending Bernanke Testimony, Retail Sales Data
- Full List of Articles »
Confluence of Factors Boost Dollar Wednesday [view article]
It's the Elliot Wave made flesh.Despite the dour mood of CEO's at financials recently reporting 2 qtr. results ,none the less, investors are eagerly lapping up all their shares. Didn't that happen in the 1st qtr. too? Reply
Near-Term Dollar Rally Possible As Fed's Plosser Voices Rate Hike Urgency [view article]
Done deal - up 50bp by November. November - that rings a bell. ReplyNear-Term Dollar Rally Possible As Fed's Plosser Voices Rate Hike Urgency [view article]
I find the author's as well as bearfund's comments viable. I'd like to see a small increase in the fed funds, but can't deny the high probability of NO action as bearfund posits. In fact, the play here may be to short the dollar going into the next meeting on the basis that no action will be taken and it will sell off a bit after having strengthened prior to the meeting.Perhaps 2009 for the hikes is going to be the timeframe as the probability for 2008 hikes seems to be slouching toward less than 50% imho. Good post bearfund. Reply
Near-Term Dollar Rally Possible As Fed's Plosser Voices Rate Hike Urgency [view article]
Inflation can be stopped if money drys up...real fast...higher interest rates will do the trick...if the economy is negative as a result it means that people just have to learn to stop living on borrowed money!!! ReplyNear-Term Dollar Rally Possible As Fed's Plosser Voices Rate Hike Urgency [view article]
Plosser is right but the Fed will not act. We've seen this before several times already this year: Fischer or Plosser talks sense and suddenly everyone thinks the Fed is going to raise rates and starts buying dollars. Then a few days later everyone realises that Helicopter Ben and his gang are still in charge and if there's going to be a rate hike it might be in 2009...maybe. And sure enough, the next Fed meeting rolls around, market sentiment is high and would easily absorb a modest increase and perhaps even rally on it, the futures market is even betting on it; but what happens? Nothing. Same thing that will happen this time. ReplyNear-Term Dollar Rally Possible As Fed's Plosser Voices Rate Hike Urgency [view article]
It is astonishing that anyone would take the Fed's feints in the direction of a rate hike seriously, after all that has occurred. The game is so over now that even the principals can hardly bring themselves to mutter out their lines. How brave of you to continue to write about it as if it really mattered. ReplyCorrelation Between the Dollar and Fed Fund Futures [view article]
Nice work. Hope it lasts. ReplyDollar and Euro: Different Week, Same Drivers [view article]
Stern is a well known inflation hawk so I don't think anyone was surprised by his comments. As such I think the markets discounted what he said to some degree.I haven't checked futures lately but I think most traders don't expect the Fed to hike rates this year in the U.S.
Interestingly....the tact most G-7's seem to be taking now is "we're leaving rates on hold expecting slowing growth to reign in inflation in the medium term".
Even though euro-zone & German PPI came in hot last week Trichet has said that he's willing to tolerate a flaring up of inflation in the short-term to see it moderate by next year. Unless inflation gets really out of hand in the coming months I don't expect this to change.
On Friday, futures markets should market participants expect a 78% chance the ECB will hike again this year vs. 55% last week. The change came on the heels of Trichet sounding a bit hawkish after Germany released their PPI numbers. I think the markets are reading too much into this. IMO there is no material difference between "we have no bias at this time" and "we may need future rate hikes".
Reply
Nusbaum
Thinking About Currency ETFs and Sovereign Debt [view article]
you could look at EMB and EDD--no position ReplyThinking About Currency ETFs and Sovereign Debt [view article]
I own a little PCY ReplyThinking About Currency ETFs and Sovereign Debt [view article]
xander: Check out the Nuveen Multi-Currency Short-Term Government Income Fund (symbol JGT). Has a good mix of foreign government bonds, AAA corporate bonds and Fed Home Loan Bank notes. I know what you're thinking, the Home Loan notes are AAA and have no credit risk. Currently selling at a 12.9% discount to NAV and has a 10.4% annual yield, paid quarterly. ReplyThinking About Currency ETFs and Sovereign Debt [view article]
what etfs or cefs are available for foreign sovereign debt? anyone? ReplyTiedeman
Volatile Market Conditions: To Stay Profitable, Make Quick Trades [view article]
Well said. The market is scary even if the financials have found somewhat of a footing, for now. ReplyVolatile Market Conditions: To Stay Profitable, Make Quick Trades [view article]
These markets are having a hard time making up their mind and then they are having a hard time sticking with the decision they've made. Some other writers on Seeking Alpha have suggested that perhaps the US government's plunge protection team (the real name escapes me) is actually in the markets buying equities or futures which would explain some of the erratic sudden rallies that seems to come out of nowhere just as the market seems poised to drop off a cliff. I have been burned so many times by these kinds of moves which is why I like what you said about making quick trades. This has been the key to me finally becoming profitable trading this bear. While I was often right about the direction or turning point, I was not right for very long. Taking quick profits has solved this problem. ReplyDollar and Euro: Different Week, Same Drivers [view article]
Hello, what are your thoughts on remarks from the Fed's Stern, when he stated that a rate rise can not wait until a recovery in the housing markets? While I agree that much of movements in the FX market is oil and earnings driven, the speculation on future interest rates is still central as well. While some believe Bernanke will cave to the pangs of inflation and follow the path of his European counterpart, this is not a certainty. What are your thoughts on the spread between the Fed Funds and Eurozone rates?Cheers
MK Reply