Barclays Bank iPath EUR/USD Exchange Rate ETN (ERO)
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- Dollar Holds Firm, Less Affected by Volatility [view article]
- U.S. Dollar: Best of the Worst? [view article]
- Profiting from Fear in Forex: Dollar Hits 16-Month High vs. Euro [view article]
- Amidst Chaos, Some Clarity on the Forex Markets [view article]
- Coordinated Rate Cuts: Too Little, Too Late? The Forex Angle [view article]
- So Much for Stability: The Euro Cash Flood [view article]
- Thought Experiment: Busting the Euro [view article]
- Big Troubles for the Euro [view article]
- Global Liquidity Crisis: What Now? [view article]
- Non-Farm Payrolls: Enough for a Fed Rate Cut? [view article]
- Trading ERO This Week [view article]
- Historic Strength for the Dollar [view article]
Recent ERO Articles
- Bad News for the Economy Is Good News for the Dollar
- Dollar Holds Firm, Less Affected by Volatility
- Profiting from Fear in Forex: Dollar Hits 16-Month High vs. Euro
- Amidst Chaos, Some Clarity on the Forex Markets
- So Much for Stability: The Euro Cash Flood
- Coordinated Rate Cuts: Too Little, Too Late? The Forex Angle
- Get-Well Card from Central Banks Doesn't Cure the Underlying Ailment; Forex Remains Volatile
- Thought Experiment: Busting the Euro
- Big Troubles for the Euro
- U.S. Dollar: Best of the Worst?
- Full List of Articles »
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Big Troubles for the Euro [view article]
Yes you are right. Europe has been heading down for years with its high unemployment rate and high debt. These countries have little in common with each other.Nato is all but dead. Germany just gave Russia the green light to expand. Germany gets most of their energy from Russia and knows where its bread is buttered. Reply
Bottle
Big Troubles for the Euro [view article]
David,Good article, altough I would disagree that there is no lender of last resort - the ECB has been playing that role providing liquidity for European banks - however agree that they are much more constrained in pursuign agressive out of the box solutions such as the Fed has had to pursue in the States (and rightly so in my opinion).
It seems we reached a similar conslusion at he same time. Check out my article earlier today:
seekingalpha.com/artic... Reply
Big Troubles for the Euro [view article]
Good thoughts and valid points but Europe does not have the mountain of debt we have here so they can manage their finance with more freedom that us at least for the moment! Replythought
U.S. Dollar: Best of the Worst? [view article]
Reminds me of something Sir Winston Churchill once said. ReplyLieberman
U.S. Dollar: Best of the Worst? [view article]
The gig is almost up... You cannot print yourself out of this crisis. Otherwise, why couldn't each of us head down to our basement and print our own $100 bills to pay our debts? Why is it considered counterfeiting when we do it????Because printing money that has no basis in value is illegal and unconstitutional!
Buy gold and silver and prepare for the eventual devaluation of our currency. Reply
U.S. Dollar: Best of the Worst? [view article]
The world economy must be in really,really, really bad shape, if there are demands for our worthless currency! ReplyU.S. Dollar: Best of the Worst? [view article]
this isnt the 1930's where govts have to find more gold to back their dollars/currencies .They are all fiat currencies and can literally be printed out of thin air (there is an unlimited supply ) - all the CB's around the world are being forced to create money(even if it is only to buy dollars)- the dollar wont crash because evryone is creating new money at the same time- In the last 2 weeks alone (before the new 900 billion auction and the bailout)the govt has been printing at 200% increase -why else would gold go up while the dollar does ? because there is a worldwide devaluation of currency and gold unlike other commodities has no real industrial demand and doesnt reflect future demand in this respect (majority of commodities are tanking due to the assumption there will be less economic activity in the future)but in fact is showing there will be future inflationary pressure due to the current creation of currencies.. Reply
Global Liquidity Crisis: What Now? [view article]
Iran -Israel war. The weird thing there is it would bolster the dollar. ReplyNon-Farm Payrolls: Enough for a Fed Rate Cut? [view article]
Please look at how Credit Card companies adjust their rates or How a Home Equity line rate is calculated, or a student loan, car loan, small business loan, or every conceivable type of loan.Almost everyone of them uses Prime plus LIBOR. I the past 30 days LIBOR is up more than 50%. To offset this TAX, the Fed and only the Fed can act by reducing the Prime Rate.
IT doesn't matter whether it will help finance anything new. What matters is that the rates on everything outstanding are going to be up another 1.5%.
Think of it as if the Fed raised the interest rate level from 2% to 3.5% in one month. This is exactly what has happened. If LiBOR doesn't drop next week and the FED does nothing, the stock market will drop like a rock until the Fed does an emergency cut. Reply
Global Liquidity Crisis: What Now? [view article]
The problem with your analysis as I see it, is that you have not factored in the major correction coming in commercial real estate, world wide. Regional and local Banks will be failing with 60% of their loans in commercial real estate.Capitalization rates were two low, based on expected appreciation and low interest rates. They will begin to rise with the interest rates and added risk premium due to rising vacancy. Prices of commercial real estate will be falling, as will industrial property with rising unemployment.
This means, that while residential property values may bottom in 2010, there will be a longer delay before commercial real estate will show signs of recovery. New construction might be expected in a more normal recession sponsored by government, but with lower property taxes and failing state governments (CA and NY etc) there is no source of wealth to back up the economy. Then if you really want to get depressed, what will happen as social security tax revenues fall and the system breaks down sooner than expected?
A long bitter road is ahead, better tread carefully.
Might be a that WW III will be needed to end the mess. This could all happen much sooner than you expect. What happens if there is an Iran-Israel war between the time of the election and inaguration? Get right with GOD? Reply
Courtenay
Global Liquidity Crisis: What Now? [view article]
What's your opinion on short-term deflation as a result of an imploding economy already in recession? I want to believe you are right about commodities if there is a concerted worldwide effort by central banks to lower interest rates and add lots of liquidity. Thanks for your article. May all this lead to a more civilized world with less corruption...I know...I'm dreaming again. ReplyNon-Farm Payrolls: Enough for a Fed Rate Cut? [view article]
Dropping rates within the next 75 days won't do a thing. As we all know credit is too tight. Banks don't trust each other, much less the average person on the street. In Chicago, banks are requiring 12-15% down on people with 700 credit scores for car loans. AND that's only if they're not purchasing an SUV.So lower rates may be a good thing. But it's a wasted effort until someone wants to loan money again. Reply
Non-Farm Payrolls: Enough for a Fed Rate Cut? [view article]
It depends on what the EU does over the weekend and then what LIBOR does pre-market monday morning.Shanghai starts trading after a weeks' hiatus.
But the real trigger could be as little as a move below 10,000 on the DOW and 4000 on the Transportation averages. Transports below 4000 would Re-confirm the Bear not a good sign to chartists or technicians everywhere.
The Month of October could very easily be as bad as September as earnings come in and future forecasts are slashed. If the Fed waits too long, Wall street's carnage will contribute to the ongoing deflationary pressure. Reply
Non-Farm Payrolls: Enough for a Fed Rate Cut? [view article]
And the next domino starts to topple:Per Bloomberg:
Schwarzenegger Tells Paulson States May Need Loans
California needs $7 Billion to cover short term cash flow shortages. Any guess how often these shortages will recur? Is it going to be $7 Billion per month?
Expect Congress to continue raising the debt ceiling repeatedly over the next several years.
I believe this might qualify as "spiraling out of control".
www.bloomberg.com/apps...
Reply
Non-Farm Payrolls: Enough for a Fed Rate Cut? [view article]
It seems only reasonable that the rate cut will be held back to see what the Treasury plans achieve, if anything. If the actions are slow in execution, or draw no relaxation of credit, the US financial market is in serious trouble as compared to the discomfort experienced so far. Meanwhile unemployment grows for a time, making credit a moot issue in any recovery. They forgot the consumer who lies in ruins at the bottom of the pile. I think it is NOT good. Reply