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Tuesday, Aug 135:14 AM
Tuesday, Aug 135:09 AMGerman investor confidence jumps
Tuesday, Aug 135:09 AM| Comment!
- The German ZEW survey of investor confidence has climbed to 42 in August from 36.3 in July and topped consensus of 40.
- The current situation print leapt to 18.3 from 10.6 and slayed forecasts of 12.
- Sentiment for the eurozone climbed to 44 from 32.8 and exceeded expectations of 37.4.
- The euro (FXE) spikes vs the dollar and is now flat.
- Relevant ETFs - Stocks: FGM, EWG, GERJ, EWGS, DBGR; Bonds: BUNL, BUNT, BUND, GGOV; Euro: ERO, ULE, URR, EUO, DRR, EUFX (PR)
Tuesday, Aug 132:11 AMGerman inflation rises
Tuesday, Aug 132:11 AM| Comment!
- German CPI +0.5% on month in July (as expected) vs +0.1% in June; on year, inflation +1.9% (as expected) vs +1.8% previously.
- Harmonized CPI +0.4% on month (as expected) vs +0.1%; on year, HCPI unchanged at +1.9% (as expected).
- Wholesale price index -0.3% on month vs -0.4% in June and consensus of +0.1%. On year, WPI flat vs +0.7% and +0.6%.
- Relevant ETFs - Stocks: FGM, EWG, GERJ, EWGS, DBGR. Bonds: BUNL, BUNT, BUND, GGOV. Euro: FXE, ERO, ULE, URR, EUO, DRR, EUFX (PR)
Tuesday, Jul 910:28 AMThe euro (FXE -0.4%), (EUO +0.8%) falls to about its lowest level of the year after ECB member Asmussen - participating in a panel discussion - says the bank's forward guidance (easy policy) goes beyond 12 months. "Our aim is to clearly anchor expectations of markets for the foreseeable future." He would also not rule out another LTRO. |Tuesday, Jul 910:28 AM| Comment!
Thursday, Jul 49:05 AMDraghi press conference, marks a big change in communications policy; main points so far:
- Council had extensive discussion about interest rate cut.
- Council injects a downward bias into interest rates for the foreseeable future based on the three variables of inflation, the economy and monetary dynamics.
- "The decision was unanimous, that's also quite important."
- "Liquidity will remain ample."
- Our exit from highly accommodative monetary policy "is very distant."
- "50 bps is not the lower bound."
- "Key ECB interest rates include the rate on the deposit facility." |Thursday, Jul 49:05 AM| 1 Comment
Thursday, Jul 48:51 AMMore on Draghi press conference: "The governing council expects the key interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time," says Draghi, adding that this is the first time the ECB has said that. Inflation, the economy and monetary dynamics will be factors guiding the ECB's forward guidance. The euro (FXE) takes a dive and is -0.85% vs the dollar at $1.2906. |Thursday, Jul 48:51 AM| Comment!
Thursday, Jul 47:48 AM
Tuesday, Jul 212:33 PMOld habits are hard to break and stocks (DIA +0.3%) and the euro (FXE -0.4%) slide somewhat as the words Merkel and Greece hit the tape together. The German Chancellor (an election coming soon) suggests Greece may not get its next €8.1B as planned and says she sees no additional debt cut for the country. |Tuesday, Jul 212:33 PM| 2 Comments
Friday, Jun 2812:04 PM
Tuesday, Jun 258:29 AMThe ECB's (as yet) uninitiated bond purchase scheme (OMT) "is even more essential now," says Mario Draghi, "as we see potential changes in the monetary policy stance ... in other jurisdictions of the global economy (i.e., the Fed). "The overall economic outlook still warrants an accommodative stance." Peripheral bond yields drop head lower, as does the euro (FXE) - now back to flat on the session. The Stoxx 50 (FEZ) is at a session high, +1.3%. |Tuesday, Jun 258:29 AM| Comment!
Friday, Jun 218:43 AMSizable pre-open gains in stock index futures melt away with the crumbling of Greece's ruling coalition as good of an excuse as any for selling. Just like the old days: The euro (FXE) quickly slips about 70 pips and the Stoxx 50 (FEZ) drops 1%, now flat on the session. S&P 500 (SPY) futures +0.25%. |Friday, Jun 218:43 AM| 2 Comments
Thursday, Jun 610:55 AMEurope turns decidedly lower, the Stoxx 50 now off 0.8% following Mario Draghi's press conference, with markets perhaps deciding to punish his somewhat smug performance: "OMT has probably been the most successful monetary measure for some time." - a curious statement considering it doesn't yet exist and Draghi admitted the legal paperwork isn't complete. Leading to the downside is Italy (EWI), tumbling 2.3%. The euro (FXE) continues to rise, +0.7% to $1.3182. |Thursday, Jun 610:55 AM| 1 Comment
Thursday, Jun 68:51 AMDraghi press conference: The bank cuts its 2013 GDP growth forecast to -0.6% from -0.5%, but hikes its 2014 estimate to 1.1% from 1%. The ECB is "technically ready" to use negative rates, but sees no reason to act right now. The euro (FXE) shoots higher, now +0.6% at $1.3166. |Thursday, Jun 68:51 AM| Comment!
Thursday, Jun 67:56 AMThe euro (FXE) remains well-bid following the ECB standing pat. Few had expected a move given the bank had cut rates 25 bps to 0.5% just one month ago. The common currency is up 0.2% at $1.3117, its highest level in a month. Mario Draghi's press conference begins at 8:30 ET. |Thursday, Jun 67:56 AM| Comment!
Friday, May 178:37 AMFirst the move then the news? The euro takes a quick tumble, dropping about 50 pips to $1.2821. There's not much in the news other than the recycling of an old story Germany's Constitutional Court might reject the ECB's OMT plan, and chatter the central bank has been calling around to float the idea of negative deposit rates. FXE -0.5% premarket. |Friday, May 178:37 AM| Comment!
Thursday, May 1611:34 AM