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EWG Forum Topics
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- 31 Country P/E and PEG Ratios [view article]
- The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story? [view article]
- Global Stock Markets: In the Grip of the Bear [view article]
- European Finance Now Under Attack [view article]
- Bespoke's International Equity Snapshot (9/10/08) [view article]
- A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
- OECD Lowers Growth Projections for All G-7 Countries Except the US [view article]
- Financial Markets: The Era of Caution [view article]
- Key ETF Performance [view article]
- Total Returns by Country Since March 2003 [view article]
- An ETF Portfolio of Olympian Proportions [view article]
- What To Watch This Week for Six Country ETFs [view article]
Recent EWG Articles
- Global Stock Markets: A Reversal of Fortune?
- Global Stock Markets: The Crash of 2008?
- Key Asset Class Performance
- Global Stock Markets: In the Grip of the Bear
- The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story?
- European Finance Now Under Attack
- Another Day, Another Dollar
- Bespoke's International Equity Snapshot (9/10/08)
- OECD Lowers Growth Projections for All G-7 Countries Except the US
- Key ETF Performance
- Full List of Articles »
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When Central Bankers Clash, Stock Markets Can Crash [view article]
One of the best articles thanks ReplyWhen Central Bankers Clash, Stock Markets Can Crash [view article]
Thank you, one of the best articles I have read on seeking alpha ReplyWhen Central Bankers Clash, Stock Markets Can Crash [view article]
BTW, Very complete article. Thanks. ReplyWhen Central Bankers Clash, Stock Markets Can Crash [view article]
Could a rate hike by the ECB in July trigger a worldwide pullback in the stock market (and therefore hijack the Fed role) ? ReplyEnergy Use Per GDP Unit by Country [view article]
Interesting analysis, and worthy of further investigation. Perhaps too simplistic to try and boil it down to ETF/CEF investing strategies. ReplyBusted: 6 Economic Myths [view article]
On Myth 1: One factor that we should consider is paper loss vs real loss. On the stock market, I will guess a lot is paper loss. e.g. If I buy a stock at $1 12 months ago, it was $2 6 months ago, now it is back at $1. Yes there is an opportunately loss of $1. (too bad for the guy that brought at $2). But on the subprime, I will guess someone actually lend someone $2 and now he only getting $1 back. ReplyBusted: 6 Economic Myths [view article]
I calculate that $12 trillion in US real estate and $10 trillion in US equities will be wiped out. ReplyTime to Change Country Mix in World Market-Cap [view article]
buyitcheap -- interesting point. the risk may go both ways, as we saw in Venezuela, and as we have seen Russia squeeze Shell and BP to sell to government controlled oil companies -- the key is that all of the indexes from MSCI, DJ, S&P and FTSE (the key indexers) use free-float. My point in making that otherwise redundant references is to explain why, for example, China has a smaller country weight globally than Switzerland. Not only are Swiss companies large, but they are very high free-float, while Chinese companies on average are low free-float. ReplyBusted: 6 Economic Myths [view article]
I don't have the numbers to calculate it. But the reduction of wealth in the US should include market equity loss and housing price reduction for all households, not the 400 billion writeoff. ReplyTime to Change Country Mix in World Market-Cap [view article]
Is free float really viable in countries i.e. China and Russia, where the governments could flood the markets with additional shares of state/public owned firms? It seems "float risk" aka dilution, might require some degree of discount on the market accordingly. ReplyGlobal Inflation Rates [view article]
What are you talking about? There is no absolutely difference between our country and the rest of the world. We are not "special." You are not special. I am not special.The world through the eyes of our English-language media is our own fantasy. If you want reality, learn a foreign language.
On Jun 25 02:19 AM Did U Think The Ponzi Scheme Would Last? wrote:
> Oh I feel so much better that we are better than a bunch of 3rd world
> countries. Our ridiculous inflation rate seems right at home with
> our new, pretty, bananna republic colored money. Why not just get
> Parket Brothers to replace the federal reserve and the treasury?
> Parker's monopoly money is just the right size for a smaller wallet. Reply
Time to Change Country Mix in World Market-Cap [view article]
Acercher -- Japan is a perennial question. I have not overweighted in years, although I continual think it ought to somehow become a success story after decades of squeezing out the excesses of its past bubble.According to S&P/Cit Global Indices, the PE is on the high side:
globalindices.standard...
This recent article at CNN Money reports a negative economic view by the Japanese government:
Japan's economic outlook dims
Government points to exports, output and corporate profits all slowing down; says economic recovery on 'pause.'
June 16, 2008: 9:37 AM EDT
TOKYO (AP) -- Japan cut its overall economic assessment for the first time in three months on Monday, saying that exports, output and corporate profits are all weakening.
"The economic recovery appears to be pausing (and) weak movements are seen recently," the Cabinet Office said in its monthly economic report for June. The government mentioned only the pause in the economic recovery a month earlier.
The government's increasing pessimism toward corporate performance is a gloomy sign for Japan's economy, which has recovered in recent years mainly due to the robust business sector. A slowdown in the U.S. economy is leading to a decrease in Japanese and Asian exports to the American market, weighing on companies' sales.
The recent surge in energy and raw material prices is also eroding business profits by crimping margins.
Japan's government cut its evaluation of exports and industrial production, saying that both have had "a weak tone recently," as well as downgrading its view on corporate profits.
The Ministry of Finance last week said that Japanese companies' business investment, profits and sales all declined on year during the January-March quarter.
A government official briefing reporters Monday said that corporate capital expenditure trends need to be watched closely.
"Once the U.S economy picks up, which we expect to happen later this year, Japan's economic growth will gain steam as exports should start rising again," he said.
Reply
Time to Change Country Mix in World Market-Cap [view article]
Your articles are consistently among the most interesting on Seeking Alpha. I appreciate the way you marry hard data with a point of view--too many other commentaries have one or the other but not both.My personal portfolio for equities has been divided about 50/50 for the last couple of years, which I think is nowhere as risky as conventional wisdom would have it, particularly given the secular trend of a declining dollar.
However, I have consistently been troubled by the role of Japan in foreign allocations. Even in your schedule above, Japan has been hovering around 10% for years, yet has truly sucked eggs as an investment. How do you deal with this yourself? Reply
The Ponzi
Scheme
Would Last?
Global Inflation Rates [view article]
Oh I feel so much better that we are better than a bunch of 3rd world countries. Our ridiculous inflation rate seems right at home with our new, pretty, bananna republic colored money. Why not just get Parket Brothers to replace the federal reserve and the treasury? Parker's monopoly money is just the right size for a smaller wallet. ReplyGlobal Inflation Rates [view article]
User 166668:The inflation rate given is for consumers. Producers typically experience the worst end of inflation, probably an average of 7.3%, if I were to venture a guess (or regurgitate what a very competent finance professor said last week). It's entirely possible that you are getting burn worse than that, depending on exactly what industry you are in and a million other variables.
Being a small mfg. only adds to the burn due to economies of scale, decrease in demand for goods in general, and rising wages.
Richard:
definition of median:
The midpoint of the range numbers that are arranged in order of value.
Of course it did not take into account any sort of weight, because doing so would make it and average (mean) instead of a midpoint (the middle number).
I'm not saying that knowing the median does us any good, just that it's not what you seem to think it is.
Dr Bagel:
Excellent point. China's currency is also pegged to the USD, but they are experiencing higher inflation (at least according to these numbers). China's government subsidizes prices to hold them steady, allowing them some control over inflation despite lacking control over their own monetary policy. However, they also have the ability to increase fuel prices 17-18% across the nation over night (they just did). I don't know if these numbers reflect that change, in fact I doubt it, but my point is the same as toofan's, nations with pegged currencies do not necessarily follow the base value.
Aside from all that, who the heck can determine what a basket of goods should include for each country and come up with figures that can meaningfully compare one to another? I definitely agree with the general consensus that inflation is typically understated and inaccurate in my own country (US) and find it hard to imagine that even a minority of the rest of the world is capable of measuring their own.
Also, unrelated, core inflation is meaningless. Perhaps some of you do know someone in the US who does not drive or use fuel, but everyone eats food.
Then again, what do I know? I'm just somekid Reply