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- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Global Market Roundup: Will the Bailout Work? [view article]
- New Short-Selling Regulations in Asia: Can American Investors Profit? [view article]
- Why Japan's Buying Spree Boons Well for Investors [view article]
- The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story? [view article]
- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Why the Bailout Cannot Solve a Thing: Nobody Is Blaming the Right Culprit [view article]
- Global Stock Markets: In the Grip of the Bear [view article]
- 31 Country P/E and PEG Ratios [view article]
- Short Cut to Profits? A Closer Look at Inverse Funds [view article]
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets, More [view article]
loading ...Recent EWJ Articles
- New Short-Selling Regulations in Asia: Can American Investors Profit?
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Japanese Equities: Value Trap Intact
- Global Market Roundup: Will the Bailout Work?
- Global Stock Markets: In the Grip of the Bear
- Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- Why the Bailout Cannot Solve a Thing: Nobody Is Blaming the Right Culprit
- Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
- The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story?
- Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets, More
- Full List of Articles »
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Financial Markets: The Era of Caution [view article]
"The rally’s lack of breadth, however, is worrying, causing Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) to warn:If July 15 was a true bottom, the market should be roaring up today, and that’s not what’s been happening. Caution is warranted!"
It's statements like these that show how many boobs there are in the financial misinformation business. Did this 'author' really think that a market bottom in July would result in a 'roaring' upmarket in August. That's why I use the term 'boob' (what other term is there for these people - financial misinformation 'boobs'). All this gloom and doom and then in the same breath (hold your breath now) you get a statement like this: "The thrifts and mortgage finance group (+16%) was the best-performing group for the week, led by Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM), up 61% and 37% respectively. This is a strong reversal from being the worst performing group during the previous week with a decline of 23%. The stocks were driven down recently by speculation on whether a government bailout was imminent, a prospect that would probably wipe out the equity holders. Those concerns seemed to diminish last week after some analysts estimated that the firms had enough capital to last at least until next year." Oh Boy! I sure see a lot of concern about markets in that statement - enough capital to last until at least next year!
No, the financial markets are not going to collapse. They can't. There are too many Mozillo (sp?) types out there that would (should) have to go to jail for the fraud they perpetrated, and that ain't going to happen. Massive price corrections - you bet - and there should be. The days of hyper-inflated home prices are over - and should of never happened (except for those Mozillo types that made it happen and will never be prosecuted) Operating on equity - not anymore - there is none in this market. All you have to work with now is your dollar per hour wage - no stated income.
Remember Silverado? Boy did we make it through all that or what! And all those millionaires 10 - 15 years later. They laughed all the way to the bank - with financials stocks. You know what they say, 'Buy low, sell high'. So, be a true investor and quit worrying about what the various markets are doing and simply follow your gut which says 'WaMu is really low right now, so is Feddie Mac (I have positions in both), maybe I should buy now". Don't be scared! After you buy them put them away for say, ten years. Don't get rattled by the short and pump guys - they're day traders. After ten years take a look at the stocks you bought. I bet you'll be laughing all the way to the bank.
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Financial Markets: The Era of Caution [view article]
I like your perspective, Prieur. Thanks for the article. ReplyFinancial Markets: The Era of Caution [view article]
Lacked focus not to mention wordy. The problem with the exhaustive posts of facts ad nausean is one has no idea of all matter, few, or none. In the end the credit squeeze is going to hurt employment and output and no one has a clue how long the sequence will take to work through, or what the outcome will be. We are in a credit warp, which as you will recall from star wars, was one of the worse things that can happen on a star voyage, as I recall. ReplyFinancial Markets: The Era of Caution [view article]
Thanks for a very helpful and comprehensive summary. ReplyFinancial Markets: The Era of Caution [view article]
Thanks for a very helpful and comprehensive summary. ReplyFinancial Markets: The Era of Caution [view article]
LLOk anyone who invests in financials is NOT using caution. Some rouge employee or Mozilo like CEO can cripple even the best institution .Since 1957-2003 18 of the top 20 companies factoring in reinvested dividends were conumer goods or pharma. Altria was BY FAR number 1 and is still "cheap" . Financials have NEVE been certain. Who can understand a CDO? What sane person gives aloan for more than ahouses "inflated value"? ReplyFinancial Markets: The Era of Caution [view article]
The title says it all, "era of caution". Very few are calling for a V shape recovery in stocks or the economy. Momentum traders will not miss much by observing markets carefully except for a well timed trade here and there. UK Chancellor Darling says the UK is facing the worst financial crisis in 60 years and it is getting WORSE. Prieur's call for a true upturn in 2h2010 appears to be on course; Jeremy Grantham says this financial crisis will last 2 years at least which is consistent with Prieur's view of the market. ReplyInternational ETF Update: China, Japan, Austria [view article]
Every day, in IBD, there is a chart on an ETF. However, the volume on some of these issues is relatively small. Question: Is there a critical point under which it makes no sense to follow a particular ETF? A few days ago, I took a small position in FXI, which generally has large volume and, thus, small bid-ask spread. Comments? ReplyGoldman Forecasts Japanese Equity Recovery from Mid-2009 [view article]
The Hammer -- Have a look at this: steventowns.com/2008/0.../Unfortunately I do not have availability at this moment to address all your questions.
-Steven Reply
Expect a Half-Decade of Weak Growth - Barron's Interview [view article]
WEBISKING: Blah Blah Blah. Aren't you wonderful? ReplyGoldman Forecasts Japanese Equity Recovery from Mid-2009 [view article]
How about mentioning some of the big cap names trading near or at Book value with good dividends and attractive valuations?How does the valuation of ewj today look historically? Reply
Expect a Half-Decade of Weak Growth - Barron's Interview [view article]
Blah Blah Blah. My personal portfolio keeps growing every year because I continue to choose stocks that are undervalued and are going WITH the trend and not against it. Many value investors continue to buy financials and hosuing related stocks whose timetable is uncertain and they do not CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY.Consumer goods companies and railroads and multi nationals like JNJ have done fine WHEN PURCHASED RIGHT Replyborenstein
Expect a Half-Decade of Weak Growth - Barron's Interview [view article]
You can not discuss U.S and the European economies in the same breath .To put it simply U.S and European economies are about to diverge cyclically .The U.S economy is in the process of consolidation while still addressing and "digesting" some problems.Europe is about to face them .After the current "turmoil",th... U.S economy very well may become the most competitive meam ,lean economic machine in the world.The lessons and adjustments will provide the new dynamics to the U.S economy.
Once the "financial " paranoia is understood within the context of record short open interest,the logic will prevail,the financial sector will lead a major stock market rally ,lead by the shares of the agencies such as FNMA and FRE(established by the act of Congress and guaranteed implicitly by the U.S government).Broad based rally will follow shortly after that .Based on the past history and the current market reality ,3% GDP growth would be quite acceptable. By the first qtr of 2009 ,the U.S economy should be expanding at 5% or faster (GDP).
Europe will be the cyclical laggard and it may be heading for a statistical recession .
This economic outcome of the economic implosion in Europe will accelerate the global "flight" to the dollar assets fuelling unprecedented stock market rally and creating demand in the housing sector(the most undervalued dollar asset).
Where was the investment universe two years ago or even a year
ago,when I have issued serious economic warnings?(as late as September of 2007)......The universe was long the stocks -that was the difference.
With all of the fiscal and the monetary measures in in place ,dynamic recovery is a reality in the period ahead .
In the meantime the market volatility will continue. Reply
Expect a Half-Decade of Weak Growth - Barron's Interview [view article]
You said... "The market low on July 15 was significant; it may be tested, but won't be severely penetrated."I think you are wrong.
Your analysis fails to consider that the SIV's, CDO's are a thing of the past. Investment banks will no longer be able to create money out of thin air at a 40:1 ratio to capital.
The treasury has taken in 1 TRILLION OF BAD DEBT TO HELP THE BANKS!
World equity markets have already lost 12 TRILLION DOLLARS OF EQUITY CAPITAL!
The Treasury is about to bail out Fannie and Freddie, a $12 trillion obligation... and
Nothing has been said about the huge losses in COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE THAT ARE COMING AS UNEMPLOYMENT INCREASES!
WHERE IS THE FUNDING COMING FROM TO REBUILD THE WORLDS CAPITAL MARKETS?
The above facts have not been considered by the Bull on the Street, so how can July 15 hold as a bottom? Simply not reasonable in my opinion.
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Total Returns by Country Since March 2003 [view article]
Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) up 443% for that period, better than Brazil. Reply