iShares MSCI Belgium Index (EWK)

All Comments on EWK

  • commenter
    Richard Shaw
    Oct 08 06:35 PM
    My Website
    31 Country P/E and PEG Ratios [view article]
    Arao:

    First, point is that the data is now completely out of date due to intervening circumstances, and is of little use at this time.

    Second, I have asked the data vendor, Thomson Analytics, a similar question. The simple answer is nobody knows, because they simply aggregate published numbers from the many investment research houses they survey.

    There is no defined standard for earnings projections. The methods may vary by source. Bad as it is, it's the best one can get in terms of broad survey data.     Reply
  • commenter
    arao
    Oct 08 05:40 PM
    31 Country P/E and PEG Ratios [view article]
    what do the earnings here refer to? Operating earnings or core earnings? The US market based on core earnings is still expensive but looks reasonable of operating earnings' basis.

    Thanks for sharing the info!
     Reply
  • commenter
    Claus
    Vistesen
    Oct 06 05:19 PM
    My Website
    The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story? [view article]
    Hi Guys,

    Thanks for the comments, not nearly as harsh as I had expected :) since this was after all a bumper piece and I know that SA readers don't take too kindly to these kind of things. I am glad that you took your time to read through it (or some of it, or just the conclusion). Anyway ...

    "The deflation scenario has been in track for some time and given the size of the world housing markets it is the prime mover."

    This is true Whidbey, but what I try to draw attention to is the fact that some economies may simply get stuck due to the particular severity of this downturn.

    "For The Big Freeze is the path"

    Quite and I would then submit that some countries may simply never thaw!

    @ Ihunt

    Excellent points ... I guess we can agree that we agree then.

    "As well as the 1st to come back will be emerging mkts."

    I do think this is one of the main points in the sense that whatever recovery we will see it is going to be assymmetric. Little by little I would also expect money to flow steadily back towards the yield offered by high growth markets. In fact, this would be the biggest threat to the US if we imagined that the Fed would have to raise rates to defend the USD. However, if the the ultimate push from this is deflationary it may not come to that.

    "On the other hand, I think the US $ will fall. We just keep printing dollars. Europe will be Forced to do some similar package or watch Rome burn, as well as the Euro. The Real Blood is just now showing up on the Real Streets. As this happens, Asia, South America, Central America, Middle East, will be shoved up against the wall or kill the System. Much like the Ugliest Global Financial Crisis has played out very quickly, it is possible to go hyperinflation just as quickly. Then, full on deflation as consumers can not pay for anything on the cash adjusted basis."

    A scary scenario, but it may be likely. The feedback effects from whatever policy (inflationist or calvinist) can definitely turn out to be quite volatile.

    @Real Broker

    Very interesting comment. There is definitely a sense of re-coupling in action here. At least, I personally find it quite amusing that people were speaking of the Euro as the new global powertrain only one year ago as Bernanke started to cut rates. Now of course, we are all a lot smarter as it is clear that Europe will now have to clean up its own mess.

    "You can only monetize debt for so long until it becomes mathematically and even theorectically impossible to make good on your promises."

    True, very true and I would not downplay the US situation for one minute. This is not small chips (or whatever) and the US economy will not command the same position in the global economy after this.

    @ YR Dog

    "An interesting question is that if deflation is coming, what will happen to gold. It's hard to look to the Depression for answers there when the countries were abandoning the gold standard and US citizens were forbidden to own gold from 1933. Will gold be a safe haven independent from deflation or will its value fall like everything else? "

    I think many people are asking themselves this question. Clearly, many Austrian punters would just love to see the fall of the global fiat reign and the return to a solid tangible standard. However, that would also imply, I think, a kind of coordination that just is not possible at this point.

    "The interesting thing to watch is will foreigners continue to buy Treasuries at 0.0% ??? They seem to be a hard sell right now. A rate increase any time soon would really seize up markets. "

    Ah yes, this small point. Well, I do think it is quite obvious that the foreign purchases of agencies and treasuries are not necessarily for the real yield they offer. So there must another reason ... now, collectively we would label this system Bretton Woods II although I am unsure that this is still the right thing to call it. Ultimately however, the fact that foreigners have been so eager to finance the US is also a counterproduct of their endogenous growth path and strategy.


    Claus
    Reply
  • commenter
    B Wilson
    Oct 06 05:03 PM
    The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story? [view article]
    Just more words that almost seem to wish for the worst. Why aren't any of you "economic wiz kids" talking about a solution to this problem? Why aren't you talking about what really got us into this mess? All you're talking about is how to use a broken system to fix a broken system. Makes no sense at all to me. What does make sense is this: Cut the big fat overgrown governments in half and allow the taxpayer-consumers to keep ALL of their hard-earned wages to spend the way they see fit. And don't say government cannot be cut back. We all know it's way over-bloated and ineffective. So, 150 million US taxpayers pay an average of $9,000 a year in income taxes. Cut government back by roughly 40%, abolish the IRS and the income tax, and the taxpayer-consumers will keep 13.5 trillion dollars a year. Quite a stimulus package wouldn't you say? - and no money has to be printed out of thin air to implement it. 13.5 trillion dollars will make it where Ford, GM and Toyaota won't be able to build cars fast enough to meet demand. Within a few months or so, there won't be a vacant homes left on the market. China won't be able to build big-screen TV's fast enough. The banks will have many new loans to give and much work to do. I'd suggest you over-educated wiz kids need to get your nose out of those books for a moment and take a more simple look at what's going on in the real world. In the real world, the consumers are out of money/credit and 70% of US GDP is consumer spending. Any wonder why the economy is in the tank? Reply
  • commenter
    YR Dog
    Oct 06 03:30 PM
    The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story? [view article]
    BudH

    Don't be so sure on the min wage cut.. One of the canidates for govenor in Washington is proposing just that, a cut in the min wage.

    Reply
  • commenter
    BudH
    Oct 06 02:26 PM
    My Website
    The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story? [view article]
    The gov't can easily inflate any time. The minimum wage will never be cut, so wage deflation has a bottom limit. Something else is going on here. We probably won't find out until after the election, or even later. Reply
  • commenter
    YR Dog
    Oct 06 12:18 PM
    The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story? [view article]
    I can see Ben cutting interest rates to 0.0% and then realizing that he cannot cut further. I believe that Greenspan actually said that he needed to raise rates from 1.0% so that sometime in the future he could drop rates again. This would be similar to Japan on a historical note. The interesting thing to watch is will foreigners continue to buy Treasuries at 0.0% ??? They seem to be a hard sell right now. A rate increase any time soon would really seize up markets.

    Also in the 1929 to 1932 period, people simply quit spending money and prices of just about everything dropped. I think that this is a very probable scenario today.

    An interesting question is that if deflation is coming, what will happen to gold. It's hard to look to the Depression for answers there when the countries were abandoning the gold standard and US citizens were forbidden to own gold from 1933. Will gold be a safe haven independent from deflation or will its value fall like everything else?

    My intuition (not nearly as complicated and rambling as the author’s words!) tells me that deflation is just around the corner. And capitalist theory does not work very well in deflation. I know Ben spent all his academic energy figuring out how to stop deflation, let’s hope he has something up his sleeve, otherwise our sage George Bush could be correct when he said, "This sucker could go down."
    Reply
  • commenter
    REal broker
    Oct 06 10:26 AM
    My Website
    The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story? [view article]
    The lack of supply is not the problem. America has positioned itself as the end consumer for the world. Demand is falling everywhere because their economy(s) are overly invested in the American economy. As we go, they go! We would have to create many more Trillions to inject into the economy to create any more inflation, and to do so would only delay the innevitable, a prolonged deflation. You can only monetize debt for so long until it becomes mathematically and even theorectically impossible to make good on your promises. Maybe next time we will be more responsible. Reply
  • commenter
    ihunt4
    Oct 06 10:05 AM
    The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story? [view article]
    Most Excellent Claus! This has been a theory of mine for awhile. We may have to go through a time of hyperinflation 1st as Billions are being printed as we speak. I do seriously agree on the demographics. As well as the 1st to come back will be emerging mkts. I like your word, dissavings...As it will be just that. I also agree that the older demographic will be more adversely affected. These are the very people who were in the fixed income that is not trading now. In the US there was a 90 yr old woman who shot herself last week b/c of Foreclosure...The Global Traders are were Out @ the end of last yr mostly. The other group that will suffer Greatly is the Retirement Fund Crowd in the US. This is what is supporting the US mkt for sure.

    Your insite is excellent but you try to write like a text book. Somewhat difficult to read.

    As you stated the Rescue by the US was the only option. On the other hand, I think the US $ will fall. We just keep printing dollars. Europe will be Forced to do some similar package or watch Rome burn, as well as the Euro. The Real Blood is just now showing up on the Real Streets. As this happens, Asia, South America, Central America, Middle East, will be shoved up against the wall or kill the System. Much like the Ugliest Global Financial Crisis has played out very quickly, it is possible to go hyperinflation just as quickly. Then, full on deflation as consumers can not pay for anything on the cash adjusted basis. Note EBAY...There is an Exodus that I have never seen in all my life. Buy nothing you do not need, be prepared as your neighbors lose their minds. This is a site that was prepared for Children to help them understand the World better. The Social Crisis below is affecting many kids as well.

    kcet.org/socal/2008/09...

    This will be a defining time in your life as well as all others.     Reply
  • commenter
    investor88
    Oct 06 09:19 AM
    The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story? [view article]
    Agree article too long as usual but accept the theme of deflation. To understand deflation just look at the Japanese experience. Governments inflate, the markets deflate. In the end market forces prevail and the result may be deflation like Japan in the 1990s or the US in the 1930s. We have to watch developments and navigate carefully. Reply
  • commenter
    Whidbey
    Oct 06 09:03 AM
    The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story? [view article]
    too wordy as usual for this writer. The deflation scenario has been in track for some time and given the size of the world housing markets it is the prime mover. The flood of fiat currencies are puts on the future productivity of the each issuer, but other than that fiat is just a medium of exchange with little value. How will it come out? When the governments realize that both supply and demand for money are the key to a recovery. For The Big Freeze is the path: keep looking at Japanese history; it is a long ride. Reply
  • commenter
    Richard Shaw
    Oct 04 04:24 PM
    My Website
    31 Country P/E and PEG Ratios [view article]
    ajelovsek:

    Those are the numbers as reported by Thompson One Analytics. They simply aggregate the data from the reporting investment analysis houses. Those are not my estimates. They are my report to you of published numbers.     Reply
  • commenter
    ajelovsek
    Oct 04 02:55 PM
    31 Country P/E and PEG Ratios [view article]
    Dear Richard
    Sorry, can you check again PEG for Thailand and Russia. The numbers are to good to be true in my opinion. Thailand earnings growth must be 77% and Russian earnings growth must be 45% to give the numbers you put.     Reply
  • commenter
    mediapro
    Oct 04 02:50 AM
    Sarah Palin's Stock Portfolio [view article]
    curious cat.

    What state (of mind or otherwise) do you live in? Just want to make sure that I stear clear of your mind (lessness).     Reply
  • commenter
    curious cat
    Oct 04 12:26 AM
    My Website
    Sarah Palin's Stock Portfolio [view article]
    klorentz: we are all ruled by fear and ignorance. some of us are acting brave because we are afraid and some of us just don't know we're ignorant. in any case, we all agreed that you have to be crazy to go into politics. so, a positive crazy is one that can gain us some political advantage and at least be perceived as crazy by the rest of the world.

    as for assumptions, i make two of them. first, we have more safeguards on our nukes than they show in the movies. second, anyone making it through our political campaigns, without self destructing, can probably hold it together for a few more years.     Reply
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