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- A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
- OECD Lowers Growth Projections for All G-7 Countries Except the US [view article]
- Key ETF Performance [view article]
- Total Returns by Country Since March 2003 [view article]
- An ETF Portfolio of Olympian Proportions [view article]
- Commodity Carnage: Where to Turn Next? [view article]
- What To Watch This Week for Six Country ETFs [view article]
- The Sterling is Getting Pounded [view article]
- Global Stock Markets: Let the Gains Begin [view article]
- Global Market Snapshot [view article]
- The Olympiad of Central Banks [view article]
- The U.S. Dollar: A New Accord [view article]
loading ...Recent EWU Articles
- U.K. Economy on a Tight Rope: How to Profit
- OECD Lowers Growth Projections for All G-7 Countries Except the US
- 4 Reasons to Buy the U.K. ETF - And 3 Big Reasons Not To
- Key ETF Performance
- An ETF Portfolio of Olympian Proportions
- Monday, August 25: Week in Review
- Total Returns by Country Since March 2003
- Commodity Carnage: Where to Turn Next?
- What To Watch This Week for Six Country ETFs
- The Sterling is Getting Pounded
- Full List of Articles »
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The U.S. Dollar: A New Accord [view article]
JPY will be the star in 12-18 month time frame. Especially against the EUR. If the new Plaza accord is in place the "official" boys will sell EURJPY in order to strengthen USD. JPY is in the heart of the credit bubble and officials know it. Japanese economy should be able to withstand USDJPY bellow 90 and EURJPY should revisit 140 (an important level in the ECU era)... FWIW ReplyThe U.S. Dollar: A New Accord [view article]
The dollar should experience a midterm correction upwards of some 5%. Real economy should stop the advance and provide a good shorting opportunity (adding to positions) for the big hedge funds. My guess is EURUSD 1.69 and USDX around 65 in first half of 2009.There were times when interest rate differentials weren't the most important factor in the FX world. History will repeat itself. I feel the fixation with interest rate differentials between major currencies is a direct consequence of the lax credit practices. And we all know this story is already unfolding.
The case for 5% up for the USD measured against a basket of other US trading partners (6 month time frame) is due to the lagg in slowdown in economic activitity between US and other economic blocks.
Reply
31 Country P/E and PEG Ratios [view article]
The data here is for the country indices and not for the ETFs. The ETFs are provided as investable proxies for the countries.The data is only available by subscription to various services which are quite expensive, in the thousands. Reply
many
The U.S. Dollar: A New Accord [view article]
The dollar can't rally in light of the inflationary pressure being put on it by the housing bailout, the Bear Sterns bailout, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and a $490 billion budget deficit (not to mention the next round of proposed "economic stimulus").The US M3 growth rate is far too high for the dollar to rally and other countries are increasingly balking at the notion that they should depreciate their currencies (i.e. inflate) in order to shore up the dollar. This game will end badly for the dollar because the US fundamentals dictate so (balance of trade, government debt, consumer savings rate, public indebtedness, etc.).
Droskoph is right, we are heading for hyperinflation and we'll need a new Volcker to come in and raise interest rates up to 15% to save the dollar. Reply
Europe and America at the Crossroads [view article]
its not that wash.dc crowd is smarter its that the 300 mil stadium goung,beer (belgium) swillers are dumber & getting more dumber all the time.thats what the pols want.its too late to change the course.just look at our 2 choices for pres.good for a laugh if it wasnt so sad. Reply31 Country P/E and PEG Ratios [view article]
Where can I find up-to-date country P/E (ttm) data? Also, is it possible to calculate the P/E ratio for each country's index rather than using a corresponding ETF?Thanks. Reply
r
The U.S. Dollar: A New Accord [view article]
This is not 1985. It won't work. ReplyEurope and America at the Crossroads [view article]
We need to step back from the current economic models and look around.Not being able to afford a new SUV every few years, a couple of packs of cigarettes and a faceful of pizza every day would not be an economic tragedy.
There are other ways of looking at the economy that go beyond the models used by the statisticians at the ISM and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
It might be that we have entered a "post" economic era without even noticing it.
For example, we are watching the death of millions of animal species, global warming and the end of our oil based economies, to name only three immense disasters.
And we Americans are eating, drinking and fornicating ourselves into physical and spiritual oblivion.
Consumer confidence indeed!
Reply
Europe and America at the Crossroads [view article]
The state and all its intervention and mischief in the free markets is the problem. The collective conscious of 300+ U.S. citizens pursuing their separate interests have been manipulated and subordinated by the regulations, the wealth transfer programs, and the financial wizardry of an elite few of 540 members of congress, 12 federal reserve governors, and 1 president.It is the height of arrogance for 553 people to assume they are more enlightened than the collective conscious of the 300+ million markets participants. This level of power is absolutely corrupting. It breeds cronyism and makes multi, multi-millionaires out of all of them.
The power to create money out of nothing is concentrated in the hands of 12 human beings. They disseminate this counterfeit crap thru their cartel of banks creating systemic risk to the natural order of the free-markets.
These banks leverage themselves to the moon knowing that the more leverage they use, the more peril they place the rest of the market at, thus guaranteeing a taxpayer bailout once the counterfeit game has worked its way thru the system. They know the inevitable outcome. It's a matter of looting it as much as they can by leveraging themselves to such an obscene multiple that makes them, "too big to fail."
With each round of "free-money,"... the destruction multiplies and yet more and more power is grabbed by the very thieves that created the mess.
The counterfeiting powers of the federal reserve and its fractional reserve mechanism of leveraging its counterfeit is the single biggest threat we face. It has been incrementally robbing people of their living standards since its beginning. Reply
The U.S. Dollar: A New Accord [view article]
Deflation only lowers the value of the dollar if demand for money shrinks more than supply. If the credit and housing crisis cause a reduction in money supply, but the economy is not as weak as believed, demand for dollars will increase and the dollar will rally.Reply
The U.S. Dollar: A New Accord [view article]
We are looking at economic models which are only approximate, of course.But the classic model, first presented by Adam Smith suggests:
If free trade among nations and economic regions contracts, which recent events show to be happening, then raising and lowering interest rates to strengthen currencies will be less effective.
If, for example, the Chinese bureaucracy decides that the Chinese consumers are going to buy American cars instead of Japanese or European cars, that is a political decision and a decision which the Chinese Communist Party is capable of making without regard to the economics of interest rates and currency values.
The three major world economic zones, Europe, the US and Asia, seem to be circling their wagons and restricting world trade.
Raising interest rates in the United States, under these conditions, would further restrict business activity in the United States and, combined with restricted trade in the other two economic zones, exacerbate the burgeoning world recession. (If Adam Smith is right.)
Under this analysis, in the presence of a falling rate of free trade, strengthening the value of the dollar would not compensate enough for the falling rate of US business activity to stimulate the American economy.
A socialist/Communist analysis would assure us that socialist Europe and Communist China (along with US Republican led compliance) could engineer the world economy so that the laws of free trade and supply and demand (Adam Smith) are less important than we think. Socialists and communists could simply buy and sell for political reasons, ignoring economic "laws."
Maybe they are right but most of us should not want to be part of an experiment like that.
It's ironic, isn't it, that these ideas are being proposed under a Republican administration? Reply
The U.S. Dollar: A New Accord [view article]
it sounds at first sight somehow compelling. but life and economics especially is not so easy. higher rates in the us would be the end for the fragile us economy - not only suvs wouldnt be bought anymore but all cars and and and...........economics also shows that more of a good leads to lower prices. how will the fed bring it about that rates will increase?? and all the economies which suffer from inflation will not want to lower rates but to increase them. we are witnessing second round effects - just look at lufthansa. and dont forget the price increases of companies like dow chemical and the like. Reply
borenstein
Europe and America at the Crossroads [view article]
That is almost funny.The points made in this article ,I have suggested to Mark Gilbert(Bloomberg,Lond... in June of 2005 ,as events to follow.Now that outcome is very clear-but first of all investors need to acknowledge lag.
The point is ,that our problems have been identified and are being addressed by the FED ,the Congress and the Administration.
Surely ,some additional easing would be helpfull but that may be acknowledged in the period ahead .
The ECB and the Europe are the real economic trap,as I have stated since last year.
ECB continues to maintain high rate policy as the economic deceleration in Europe is not only a certainty but a catalyst leading to a a mjor implosion in the period ahead (emerging market economies are heading for more severe implosion).
No doubt in my mind that European economy will be derailed and sequentially Asia and Latin America economies will follow.
This will create a massive inflows into U.S adding fuel to recovery ahead .Record demand for dollar assets will follow helping the housing industry and the stock market.
Sounds incredible?Then again when I had predicted today's events in June of 2005 and had reiterated them in on September 18 /2007 (Bloomberg TV,BrianSullivan).not too many economists/investors accepted my prognosis.I will be right on my current outlook as well.Patience is the word.
Reply
The U.S. Dollar: A New Accord [view article]
A higher rate: Just what our Robust economy needs.Housing, banking, exports everyone is clambering for a rate increase so they can leave on vacation just like Congress. Something will collapse all right but it won't be oil.
At this late date I really would wonder if Beneficent Benny would start unwinding all his recent brilliant moves to save his Banker Buddies---But---wait a minute---He's reaching for one of the heavy darts!!!. Get out the Survival Gear!!, I fear another Benny Bullseye!! Reply
The U.S. Dollar: A New Accord [view article]
Picking the dollar to rise from the ashes has as much to do with the 6 trillion of deflation that has already occurred in equities and real estate. The countervailing 1.5 trillion in fiat will not compensate. We are at a tipping point where more fiat may well fell the republic ala Weimar Germany circa 1923. Bennie and Hank get it and will silence the presses before dollars are dispensed in single or two ply rolls. Deflation occurs when credit collapses and takes the float of dollars with it. Oil and commodities are only a side show. Reply