iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ)

All Comments on EWZ

  • commenter
    mr.g
    Oct 08 06:59 AM
    Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    I dont think the govt will actually purchase stocks to stop the slide -but it wouldnt surprise me if they closed markets at this point while they fix some seriously screwed up fundamentals - at the same time closing banks across the nation and limiting ATM withdrawals -
    If they do it they will load the deck for a rally when the market reopens     Reply
  • commenter
    Ben Dinsmore
    Oct 08 05:31 AM
    My Website
    Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    3 Trillion is a lot of money to be out of this market! I hope that some of it begins moving back in soon. I have 20+ years before retirement, but I feel bad for those who are (or will be retiring soon) Reply
  • commenter
    Ben Dinsmore
    Oct 08 05:29 AM
    My Website
    Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Blaming the government and mortgage lenders for the current financial meltdown, is akin to blaming McDonalds or the candy aisle at Wal*Mart for making us fat. Yes they offer the product for sale, but ultimately we have the choice of whether or not to buy it.

    With the exception of those families who truly faced financial hardships beyond their control (medical emergencies, jobloss, etc.), a significant number of American Families willingly positioned themselves within a paycheck or two of bankruptcy due to their own greed.
    Reply
  • commenter
    YR Dog
    Oct 07 11:49 PM
    Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Two comments today.

    One is just about all of my short ETFs are gone. I put very high limits on them, most above any previous rocket high, and almost all have been taken out. Its like watching a rocket punch up and hand you some money.. So I am now waiting for the next dead cat bounce or sucker rally or whatever it will be to load up on Ultra short ETFs.

    Two, are we going to see deflation or inflation. After reading some history from 1929 to 1933, after the banks seized up, prices of just about everything went down... Not hard to imagine if no one is buying. Seems like that mentality is starting to take hold now. I am not sure what gold will do if there is deflation now. Back in the 1930's currencies were rolling off the gold standard and then Uncle Bucky seized all the gold in the USA so we cannot look to that as a lesson. I certainly agree with the billions soon to be trillions pumping out the Fed window, there has to be a dilution of the buck and many argue for inflation. Right now, my instinct tells me that deflation is just around the corner.. and capitalism does not work well in deflation, nothing to feed the greed. This could be back to Hobbs natural state where life is "short, nasty and brutish". How long can you make a living shorting the market?
    Reply
  • commenter
    PelicanPete
    Oct 07 08:33 PM
    My Website
    Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    I am voting for Hoover! Reply
  • commenter
    wmh
    Oct 07 08:29 PM
    Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    David, Thanks for sharing your work. Any chance you can track SLV and share some insights.

    TIA -wmh     Reply
  • commenter
    kmca1989
    Oct 07 06:24 PM
    Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    question: what tool do you use to create trend lines and mark your charts? Reply
  • commenter
    buckmaker
    Oct 07 11:48 AM
    Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Some of you are not wearing your thinking caps. Truly the Fed is flooding the market with paper. That is why the dollar will tank not the opposite. The only reason it is seeing temporary strength is the mass exodus of commercial paper and repatriation by scared homies that still believe that the US is the wealthiest nation and that stocks always go up. The markets are experiencing their balancing act between fear and greed. The problem is that the WTO aka Trilateral Commission won't let it work against the big boys. It's do as we say, not as we do. FAX and FXA look to be great buys here. I might just buy more. Reply
  • commenter
    syndicat
    Oct 07 08:05 AM
    Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    If you want to think about what could make the nightmare worse, watch the relationship between the ETFs and their net asset value. For instance if you start to see the SPY trade consistantly below its NAV (SXV), you will know disaster is coming.

    I sold all my SPY, MDY and QQQQ yesterday and replaced them with an equal dollar amount to approximate the same S&P industry weightings.

    Sounds crazy? My brokers are telling me that customers are afraid of
    FDIC insured bank deposit sweeps and are buying Treasury Bills at a much lower yield.     Reply
  • commenter
    mr.g
    Oct 07 06:40 AM
    Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    there wont be capitulation for all those waiting for one - the fed and the treasury can literally inject 100 billion into seven banks if it like right now or 1 billion to 700 banks and can get more money if they want - this isnt the 1930's where they have to find more gold to back their dollars it is fiat currency and can literally be printed out of thin air (there is an unlimited supply ) - all the CB's around the world will be forced to do the same so- the dollar wont crash - In the last 2 weeks alone (before the new 900 billion auction and the bailout) has been printing at 200% increase - the assets or credit derivatives will be so diluted by the amount of dollars flowing they will just an a small expense rather than an insurmountable problem that you see today - this crises will be drowned in a dollar or whatever currency your central bank happen to print -with maybe the exception being iceland Reply
  • commenter
    ericinNE
    Oct 07 04:57 AM
    Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    royial: Not to be facetious, but, Duuhh! ;-)
    Wonder if I'll pick the right reentry point for EEV, EFU, SDS, QID, SRS, SKF. Sold today in anticipation of typical big dip - follow up rally. Looking forward to recouping some losses between now and election day.     Reply
  • commenter
    Nikola
    Oct 07 04:49 AM
    Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Royial, yes, that is exactly what Dave means, and he is not the only one who holds that opinion.

    But, seems like to me, Dave has capitulated. He thinks the world has ended. Even an upturn is not gonna be a real upturn.

    Hm.... and he is not the only one.


     Reply
  • commenter
    royial
    Oct 07 03:39 AM
    Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Hi,

    First of all - thanks for your great article and graphs.
    I have a question regarding the section "Who was buying? That squeeze may have been the opening act of your tax dollars at work. Nothing would surprise me and generating short squeezes has been the government’s primary objective. Reverse Repos from the Fed have been running around $25 billion per day as the Fed “drains” reserves from the system.".
    What do you mean by this? that someone involved in the market and buy stocks at the last hour to prevent another black monday day?

    Thanks.     Reply
  • commenter
    Claus
    Vistesen
    Oct 06 05:19 PM
    My Website
    The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story? [view article]
    Hi Guys,

    Thanks for the comments, not nearly as harsh as I had expected :) since this was after all a bumper piece and I know that SA readers don't take too kindly to these kind of things. I am glad that you took your time to read through it (or some of it, or just the conclusion). Anyway ...

    "The deflation scenario has been in track for some time and given the size of the world housing markets it is the prime mover."

    This is true Whidbey, but what I try to draw attention to is the fact that some economies may simply get stuck due to the particular severity of this downturn.

    "For The Big Freeze is the path"

    Quite and I would then submit that some countries may simply never thaw!

    @ Ihunt

    Excellent points ... I guess we can agree that we agree then.

    "As well as the 1st to come back will be emerging mkts."

    I do think this is one of the main points in the sense that whatever recovery we will see it is going to be assymmetric. Little by little I would also expect money to flow steadily back towards the yield offered by high growth markets. In fact, this would be the biggest threat to the US if we imagined that the Fed would have to raise rates to defend the USD. However, if the the ultimate push from this is deflationary it may not come to that.

    "On the other hand, I think the US $ will fall. We just keep printing dollars. Europe will be Forced to do some similar package or watch Rome burn, as well as the Euro. The Real Blood is just now showing up on the Real Streets. As this happens, Asia, South America, Central America, Middle East, will be shoved up against the wall or kill the System. Much like the Ugliest Global Financial Crisis has played out very quickly, it is possible to go hyperinflation just as quickly. Then, full on deflation as consumers can not pay for anything on the cash adjusted basis."

    A scary scenario, but it may be likely. The feedback effects from whatever policy (inflationist or calvinist) can definitely turn out to be quite volatile.

    @Real Broker

    Very interesting comment. There is definitely a sense of re-coupling in action here. At least, I personally find it quite amusing that people were speaking of the Euro as the new global powertrain only one year ago as Bernanke started to cut rates. Now of course, we are all a lot smarter as it is clear that Europe will now have to clean up its own mess.

    "You can only monetize debt for so long until it becomes mathematically and even theorectically impossible to make good on your promises."

    True, very true and I would not downplay the US situation for one minute. This is not small chips (or whatever) and the US economy will not command the same position in the global economy after this.

    @ YR Dog

    "An interesting question is that if deflation is coming, what will happen to gold. It's hard to look to the Depression for answers there when the countries were abandoning the gold standard and US citizens were forbidden to own gold from 1933. Will gold be a safe haven independent from deflation or will its value fall like everything else? "

    I think many people are asking themselves this question. Clearly, many Austrian punters would just love to see the fall of the global fiat reign and the return to a solid tangible standard. However, that would also imply, I think, a kind of coordination that just is not possible at this point.

    "The interesting thing to watch is will foreigners continue to buy Treasuries at 0.0% ??? They seem to be a hard sell right now. A rate increase any time soon would really seize up markets. "

    Ah yes, this small point. Well, I do think it is quite obvious that the foreign purchases of agencies and treasuries are not necessarily for the real yield they offer. So there must another reason ... now, collectively we would label this system Bretton Woods II although I am unsure that this is still the right thing to call it. Ultimately however, the fact that foreigners have been so eager to finance the US is also a counterproduct of their endogenous growth path and strategy.


    Claus
    Reply
  • commenter
    B Wilson
    Oct 06 05:03 PM
    The Global Economy: Is Deflation the Next Macro Story? [view article]
    Just more words that almost seem to wish for the worst. Why aren't any of you "economic wiz kids" talking about a solution to this problem? Why aren't you talking about what really got us into this mess? All you're talking about is how to use a broken system to fix a broken system. Makes no sense at all to me. What does make sense is this: Cut the big fat overgrown governments in half and allow the taxpayer-consumers to keep ALL of their hard-earned wages to spend the way they see fit. And don't say government cannot be cut back. We all know it's way over-bloated and ineffective. So, 150 million US taxpayers pay an average of $9,000 a year in income taxes. Cut government back by roughly 40%, abolish the IRS and the income tax, and the taxpayer-consumers will keep 13.5 trillion dollars a year. Quite a stimulus package wouldn't you say? - and no money has to be printed out of thin air to implement it. 13.5 trillion dollars will make it where Ford, GM and Toyaota won't be able to build cars fast enough to meet demand. Within a few months or so, there won't be a vacant homes left on the market. China won't be able to build big-screen TV's fast enough. The banks will have many new loans to give and much work to do. I'd suggest you over-educated wiz kids need to get your nose out of those books for a moment and take a more simple look at what's going on in the real world. In the real world, the consumers are out of money/credit and 70% of US GDP is consumer spending. Any wonder why the economy is in the tank? Reply
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