iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ)

All Comments on EWZ

  • commenter
    OldLimey
    Aug 22 11:01 AM
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    The Soviet Union was a Russian Empire. They want it back. The label doesn't matter. Reply
  • commenter
    David White
    Aug 22 10:30 AM
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Oh, did you see the SA news about the mortgage loan default rates in July. That looked awful. People must really be reaching if they think there's a big upside push soon. Reply
  • commenter
    David White
    Aug 22 10:27 AM
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    It seems all the financials are up today on the speculation that KDB will try to buy Lehman. Lehman couldn't manage to raise money last time it tried (or at least Lehman has a hard time of it). It seems likely to me that this speculation may find its end in the dust heap. Perhaps Bernanke et al will engineer another buyout by a US bank. GS seem like they might be a good candidate? It does seem like the pain has to return soon, expecially with Putin and Iran making all kinds of trouble. I am amazed the market is up so much today. Anyone have any predictions for the near term. I still see a channel to the upside based on today's action. However, it looks like it might end soon. Reply
  • commenter
    PDL27
    Aug 22 10:25 AM
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    "Putin is lootin'" ... that's a classic! May I borrow that? And you're right: they really are Soviets in their mindset and objectives... and in their souls.

    Nice job, David, as always. Other than oil and a few healthcare sectors, I don't see anything close to being positive. Good time to stay on the sidelines. JMHO.     Reply
  • commenter
    EUARTE
    Aug 22 09:27 AM
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Yes, Soviets. Putin is a Soviet thug. Reply
  • commenter
    David Martin
    Aug 22 09:06 AM
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Just a prelude to a September or October crash.
    The market is overvalued by 2/3rds.     Reply
  • commenter
    thumb
    Aug 22 09:00 AM
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Thanks for the charts!!

    Russia's game of cat and mouse could go on for quite awhile.
    If they withdraw the troops then NATO/Peacekeepers probably come in.
    This most likely will keep the energy markets in hyper mode.
    T
     Reply
  • commenter
    Donald E.
    L. Johnson
    Aug 22 08:17 AM
    My Website
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    I don't know if this link will show pnf charts. If not, you can set the system to show pnf and click on "go." Click on any chart to see hourly, daily, weekly and pnf charts.

    stockcharts.com/charts...|E
     Reply
  • commenter
    Donald E.
    L. Johnson
    Aug 22 08:15 AM
    My Website
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Point and figure charts for DIA, SPY have been bearish throughout the "sucker rally." QQQQ, MDY, IWM have been and still are bullish. XLE has turned bullish. GLD, IYT, XLF are bearish. IYR is bullish but on the verge of going bearish.

    stockcharts.com/charts...|E
     Reply
  • commenter
    David Fry
    Aug 22 08:14 AM
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    They're still Soviet thugs to me! Reply
  • commenter
    calvino
    Aug 22 07:05 AM
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Good stuff, as usual. The Soviets are in a bind as much as we are. They own lots of Fannie and Ferdie paper. Perhaps the SEcretary of the Central Treasury called them to hasten their exit from Georgia, or else, no taxpayer backstop of their bonds. Reply
  • commenter
    justme2727
    Aug 22 06:44 AM
    Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets [view article]
    Ok, I know technical analysts focus on graphs and don't pay much attention to real world context, but seriously...Soviets!?

    Decade check!     Reply
  • commenter
    Claus
    Vistesen
    Aug 22 03:32 AM
    My Website
    What's Next for Brazil's Economy? [view article]
    Hi Guys,

    Thanks for your comments.

    @ User247325

    "I agree with the points above, but the biggest issue that Brazil has today is corruption at

    all levels."

    Point taken! I certainly do not want to come off as someone who seems complacent towards

    this issue. Honestly, I also have to admit that it is a topic of which my knowledge is very

    limited. However, if I take your points at face value they would obviously constitute an

    important obstacle for whatever Brazil sets out to "become".

    Ultimately though beauty, as always, is in the eye of the beholder and I would be surprised

    to see if Brazil's development endeavors shored up at the sluggishness by which the state

    apparatus conformed to modern "western standards". This does not mean of course that

    something should not be done and that the issues should not be treated.

    I guess that I am seconding Egan's points here since what is "corruption" really in this

    context. Clearly, if you are placed with operations in Venezuela et al. the threat of

    trigger happy govvy soldiers marching in and taking your property is a BIG issue, but I

    would argue that Brazil is another level up from these kinds of adverse business

    environments.

    @ Brahm

    Thanks for this elaborate comment. I do have to concur that this piece was not one of my

    most succinct.

    It is of course interesting to note that those four economies you mention constitute that

    almost infamous BRIC economy group coined by Goldman Sachs almost a decade ago (I think).

    My main argument here is consequently first and foremost that Brazil together with other

    rapidly developing emerging markets WILL see their share of world GDP grow. I think that

    this is the big global development story of the 21st century and it really should not be

    lamented. I would also expect that their increasing clout of their economies as a share of

    world GDP be especially pronounced in DOLLAR terms. In this way, the world already HAS de-

    coupled from the US economy so to speak, but it is a much longer term process than what we

    are immediately seeing.

    Within this frame of reference I am fundamentally bullish on Brazil (and India btw)

    especially compared to China and Russia where I think we will NEVER see a them becoming a

    net absorbers of global capacity (i.e. sustainable external deficit economies). Of course,

    Russia may experience an external balance at some point but Gazprohm inc will fight long and

    hard before that happens.

    You see, what Brazil has is a relatively favorable demographic structure and one which at

    this very point in time is almost at its "optimal" level if we look at age structure. This

    is really the gist of my argument (I guess that I should have been clearer here).

    So, I would simply put up the simple hypothesis that Brazil CANNOT be expected to crash

    completely due to internal momentum. Obviously, as you say yourself; both India and Brazil

    are hard at work to try to halt the spike in inflation and to prevent the money from coming

    in too fast. So, they WILL definitely slow, but 1997 style crises should not occur in these

    two countries I think.

    "Brazil is an interesting case. My take here is that commodity prices will have some effect

    on the export revenues. However, I do not expect severe decrease as commodity prices will

    moderate probably by only 10-15% overall. Don't expect massive decrease in revenue because a

    disproportionate fraction of exports of commodities is to emerging economies. These

    economies will not have much decrease in infrastructure investment, and hence the need for

    commodity imports will remain significant as most of the economies do not serious balance of

    payment problems."

    I could not agree more really. I think this is an excellent point. Sure, commodity prices

    are falling and can fall further if the investor community starts to worry about deflation

    and recessionary risks in OECD, but once countries as Brazil, India, Turkey etc start

    accelerating again (my guess is end 2009), then commodities will once again begin their

    structurally bound upward march.

    @ Whidley

    Thanks for your points and also those of educative nature. SA readers and commenters are a

    demanding bunch, but I do appreciate that you (they) take their time to massage the more

    argumentative side of my pieces.

    "I did not see much on internal consumption in the economy in your analysis: why?"

    A fair point, and while the Brazilian consumer is sure to wind down in the coming slow down my main argument is that she will not fold completely. Moreover, I am arguing that the relative "gusto" of Brazilian domestic demand is high compared to other (especially OECD) economies which should flatter the the economy in terms of inflows for investments and portfolio purposes.

    "The structure of the demand side of the economy is weak and seriously underdeveloped for want of educational and training policies that foster the middle classes and a stable lower class and lack of economic opportunity and mobility."

    Definitely, and nothing comes for free. More specifically, I would say that Brazil now has a golden opportunity to lock in a growth and optimal growth path for the next 20 something years. One of the challenges/pre-requisi... here will certainly be investment in human capital (i.e. on the quality side that is).

    best wishes everybody

    Claus     Reply
  • commenter
    John Egan
    Aug 21 06:21 PM
    Emerging Markets: Ready to Rebound? [view article]
    Mr. Greenstein... I think being a contrarian is fine if there is a solid reason behind the contrarian thinking. If you had said 'everything returns to its mean', or 'it'll be a pendulum', I'd at least accept your explanation. I do have to say that your explanation here doesn't make much sense to me. If it is true that:

    - Decoupling is a myth
    - That American equities are beginning to pick up and foreign equities are dropping
    - That foreign markets and economies have been suckling at the teat of the American consumer

    I just don't see how foreign countries are going to have the income to support their workers. Your argument that the workers in these countries are going to benefit from cheaper food and oil reminds me of Carly Fiorina's exhoratation that sending jobs overseas is good for the American consumer because merchandise will cost less. A recent TV expose showed a bewildered unemployed factory worker trying to explain the benefit of buying at Walmart while she was running out of unemployment insurance.

    Just doesn't jive to me.... jegan ;-)     Reply
  • commenter
    John Egan
    Aug 21 06:10 PM
    What's Next for Brazil's Economy? [view article]
    User 247325 is concerned with corruption in Brazil..... Unlike the corruption in Russia, China, India, Mexico ...etc. etc ... I figure if you invest in foreign equities you had better believe that the companies you invest in are capable of dealing with corruption on that countries scale.

    Course, we don't have any such issues... Like Enron, financials, government dirty tricks, baiting of Russia, lying to involve our country in expensive un-winnable wars........ Because we are righteous Americans! Ta-Dah!

    jegan ;-)     Reply
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