Exar Corp. (EXAR)

All Comments on EXAR

  • commenter
    SeekingAlpha
    Editors
    Apr 06 05:17 AM
    My Website
    General Discussion on EXAR
    Is this a buy or a sell? Reply
  • commenter
    wobatus
    Jan 08 01:42 PM
    B.Riley's 29 Tech Steals - Barron's [view article]
    B. Riley is just pimping its positions. They own chunks of Centillium, Transmeta, ESS tech. In fact, they urged ESST to liquidate. In the Barron's article it says they screened small cap and mid cap companies with 35% or more net cash to market value, but took out ones with too much cash burn or unsustainable biz models. Yet ovti fits the screen criteria, but didn't make itm, just to name one? Come on. OVTI is profitable. B. Riley is just hyping, and Eric Savitz, the Barron's writer, should check his sources for conflict. Reply
  • commenter
    William
    Trent
    Apr 04 06:48 PM
    The Chip Glut Is Beyond Semi-Serious [view article]
    One word: Yes.

    I still believe things will hit bottom when the orders for new supply start to grow slower than end demand.     Reply
  • commenter
    five whys
    Apr 04 05:39 PM
    My Website
    The Chip Glut Is Beyond Semi-Serious [view article]
    Hi William,

    Here is a very different view

    www.smartmoney.com/Tec...;pgnum=1

    any comment?     Reply
  • commenter
    William
    Trent
    Mar 29 10:08 PM
    The Chip Glut Is Beyond Semi-Serious [view article]
    It may be weakening now, but it must have been strong at some point for the semis to be adding so much capacity. The problem with that is that orders can be canceled. Somehow the chip industry always believes the orders are for real "this time" even though they have been proved wrong over and over.

    Eternal optimists, I guess.     Reply
  • commenter
    five whys
    Mar 29 08:53 PM
    My Website
    The Chip Glut Is Beyond Semi-Serious [view article]
    Mr. Trent,

    I quickly checked another piece of data. Though a bit North America centric, PCB book-to-bill ratio does provide leading indication of chip sector and this one sint looking good either!
    www.ipc.org/ContentPag...

    I wonder how bad does current chip b-b ratio looks like!     Reply
  • commenter
    William
    Trent
    Mar 28 12:05 PM
    The Chip Glut Is Beyond Semi-Serious [view article]
    Chips are a global commodity, and the foreign producers are having considerable impact. Some of the data presented above are U.S. specific, while others I follow (such as the SIA Global Sales Report) are global.

    Other dynamics, such as inventory levels, are probably something that can be extrapolated. If US chipmakers are building inventory it could mean that foreign manufacturers are taking share, or it could mean that foreign manufacturers are also building inventory. In the short term the latter is usually more significant that the former but it is something to be aware of as the counter-argument.

    I would say the weakest data above, with respect to a more global chip industry, is the capacity utilization figure. With more new fabs built overseas than in the U.S., U.S. capacity utilization is less relevant to the total industry than it has been historically. By using the Fed data, I am making an implicit assumption that global fabs are all being utilized at roughly the same rate. Sometimes this will not be the case.     Reply
  • commenter
    stan
    Mar 28 10:54 AM
    The Chip Glut Is Beyond Semi-Serious [view article]
    Mr Trent ... very thought proboking analysis. I can't help wondering how the major foreign semi manufacturers would affect your conclusions.

    Japanese, Korean and Taiwinese manufacturers as well as some of the Eurpoean semi guys are major players in semiconductor supply.

    China is now the world's #1 producer of semiconductors ... true, it's for their own internal market and so doesn't directly bear on world supply/demand dynamics ... and so may be ignored for this analysis.

    I would be interested in your opinion of the effect of the foreign producers.     Reply
  • commenter
    William
    Trent
    Mar 27 01:34 PM
    The Chip Glut Is Beyond Semi-Serious [view article]
    Thanks.

    I have been (publicly) bearish for approximately 1 year, and during that time the SOX is down about 5% vs. a 10% gain in the S&P 500, so I wouldn't say the bearish outlook was invalid. Admittedly (which I have also noted) I may have missed the August bottom. The data just haven't reversed enough to warrant a turn toward bullishness on my part.

    To be specific, I think the fundamentals are going to get much worse, but the market will look past the bottom in fundamentals and the stocks will recover before the fundamentals do. I am not confident, yet, that we have reached that point but it is possible that we have. Sorry I can't be more helpful than that.

    As far as the article you referenced, I share Notable Calls' opinion.     Reply
  • commenter
    SeekingAlpha
    Editors
    Mar 27 01:22 PM
    My Website
    The Chip Glut Is Beyond Semi-Serious [view article]
    Mr. Trent, great analysis as always. But you have been bearish for so long on this sector, and it just hasn't materialized for stockholders. How do you explain that?

    Also, how do you explain the ongoing bullishness from the sell-side -- like this from yesterday:

    chip.seekingalpha.com/...     Reply
  • commenter
    Rob
    Zenilman, Se
    ekingAlpha.c
    om
    May 08 06:56 AM
    Chart: Digital Logic Semiconductor Manufacturers - Gross Profit Margins [view article]
    Thank you for your suggestion. CTLM & MSPD will be included in charts beginning today, May 8, 2006l. Reply
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