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Saturday, May 18, 9:15 AM Leon Cooperman and partner Steve Einhorn keep it simple: Stocks (VTI) are cheap relative to interest rates and inflation. The guy who bought T-bills (SHY) has migrated to T-bonds (TLT), the guy who bought T-bonds has moved to investment grade corporates (LQD), the guy who bought IG is now in high-yield (HYG, JNK), and so on (glasses clink in the FOMC board room). Their largest position is Sprint Nextel (S) - as fans of Masayoshi Son and long-time owners of DISH, the duo like seeing two industry titans both wanting the same asset. New Citigroup (C) management should be able to double ROE over the next 2-3 years, and Transocean (RIG) sells for a significant discount to asset value. 4 Comments [Quick Ideas]
Tuesday, May 14, 8:59 AM GMO's 7-year asset allocation model for U.S. stocks (VTI) is now predicting negative returns, says James Montier, presenting at the London Value Conference, and telling the audience GMO is now 50% in cash. Liking Europe (VGK, EZU, FEZ) a year ago, the big run has GMO less excited now. The best value could be emerging markets (EEM, DEM, VWO), but China's property bubble has GMO allocating less to EM than its models suggest. 14 Comments [Global & FX]
Tuesday, May 14, 7:21 AM An early look at the BAML May fund manager survey shows hedge fund equity exposure (VTI) at the highest in 7 years, +45%. Commodity exposure (DBC) is a negative 29%. Cash is at 4.3%. Sectors: It's a record-low exposure to energy (XLE) at -17%. Japan (EWJ, DXJ) at +31% is the highest in 7 years. 1 Comment
Thursday, May 2, 7:35 AM The number of bond funds owning stocks rose to 352 in Q1, according to Morningstar, up from 312 in Q4 and the highest level in nearly 2 decades. "We believe that traditional fixed income (AGG, BND) is at a historic level of being overvalued," says Forward Management, explaining to investors why it's moved from about zero of their funds in stocks to about 50% over the last year. 5 Comments
Wednesday, April 24, 7:36 AM Stocks get an upgrade to Overweight over the next 3 months at Goldman, which says returns should be supported by a rebound in global growth. "(The) risks in the U.S. and Europe are now lower and the time that markets have to bridge towards the stronger growth outlook in H2 is shorter." Comment!
Friday, April 19, 10:45 AM It's the dreaded "impossible trinity." Commodities, stocks, and bonds are all giving conflicting signals on the global economy, says BAML's David Woo, and their resolution could be a source of a "major realignment" of prices. Commodities (DBC) signal slow down, stocks (VTI) price in strong consumer spending, and bonds have completely lost it - government paper (TLT) says run for the hills, while credit spreads (LQD, HYG, JNK) say things are rosy. 11 Comments
Thursday, April 4, 11:31 AM We're running out of stock. Corporate share buyback authorizations of $208B in Q1 are the strongest (as a % of capitalization) since Birinyi Associates began tracking the data in 1985. As a percent of capitalization, HD, UPS, AXP, and TXN - with authorizations of 13-18% of the float - lead the way. Next after AMEX in the recently green-lighted banks is BAC which plans to repurchase 3.8% of its shares. 7 Comments
Monday, March 25, 3:21 PM The SPIVA scorecard - matching active managers vs. index funds - once again shows how much the odds are stacked against going active. But one area where managers won is international small-caps (SCZ, VSS, DLS), with just 15% of them lapped by the index last year (10% over the last 3). In such an illiquid, poorly understood corner of the market, smart managers can indeed add alpha. 7 Comments
Wednesday, March 20, 10:43 AM In another blow to active fund management, CalPERS is mulling a move to an all-passive portfolio. The $255B AUM fund already has about half of its money in such, and is now questioning whether the effort (and fees) associated with finding outperforming managers is worth it. 8 Comments [U.S. Economy, Financials]
Saturday, March 9, 9:00 AM Institutions are "still leery of stocks ... after 13 years of having their hearts broken," says Howard Marks (OAK). "You can see that in their low stock allocations compared with the period of 2000 and before." He expects stocks will need a couple more good years before "the love affair will really be rekindled." What's Oaktree excited about now? Commercial real estate in secondary markets - raw land, finishing projects, distressed properties. 17 Comments
Tuesday, March 5, 10:28 AM "Cash in the developed world is a terrible asset," writes Bridgewater in its (300-page) year-end investor note. "We would be short cash of all the major currencies," in continues - hedge fund shorthand for borrowing to buy risky assets. Previous: Ray Dalio and his co-CIO have made no secret of their bullishness this year. 1 Comment
Saturday, March 2, 8:43 AM Along with the bull market are wealth managers continuing to ratchet up their exposure to equites at the expense of bonds and cash, according to Penta's latest survey which shows recommended stock allocations rising to 48% from 45% a year ago. Also of interest are the swings in foreign stock holdings - in favor in 2011, out in 2012, and popular again this year. Comment!
Friday, March 1, 10:42 AM "(There's) a storm coming," says Stan Druckenmiller, "maybe bigger than the storm we had in 2008." ZIRP is distorting not just stocks, but gold, real estate, everything - "they're all subsidized." He's quick to point out this isn't a forecast as "subsidization" could go on for a long time. Investors will "rue the day" they listened to the idea they need to plow money into risk because interest rates are so low. 3 Comments
Tuesday, February 12, 11:52 AM "You want to be borrowing cash and hold almost anything against it," says Bridgewater co-CIO Bob Prince on a client conference call. While not Tepper's "balls to the wall" line, it's a pretty loud statement from a master asset-allocator shop like Bridgewater. Previously Ray Dalio called this year a "game-changer" in which money would reallocated to risk assets. 2 Comments
Thursday, February 7, 8:13 AM More from Grantham: Courtesy of the donkey-beatings, all global assets are once again becoming overpriced, but not uniformly so. Pockets of value can be found in emerging markets (EEM) and Japan (DXJ), and the great global franchise companies. Much of everything else is "brutally overpriced," with U.S. stocks selling at an implied negative 7-year imputed return ... As for fixed income - fugetaboutit!." 5 Comments [Global & FX, U.S. Economy]
Tuesday, February 5, 9:58 PM All Markel (MKL) CIO Tom Gayner ever seems to do is handily beat both equity and fixed-income benchmarks over time. 2012 was no exception, and his theme for 2013 (CC transcript) is the avoidance of credit and rate risk. He's taken the duration of Markel's bond portfolio down to a record-low 3 years and invested in only the highest-rated credits. "Taking credit risk for small amounts of basis points - it doesn't seem like that good an idea to me." 3 Comments [Financials]

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