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ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Ford Motor Company
- Ford Motor is suitable for Enterprising Investors, but not Defensive Investors following the ModernGraham approach.
- According to the ModernGraham valuation model, the company is undervalued at the present time.
- The market is implying an annual loss of 0.1% in earnings over the next 7-10 years, which is significantly less than the growth the company has seen in recent years.
Ford Motor: 3 Catalysts For Ford Motor That Could Drive The Share Price Past $20 In 2015
- Ford Motor is one of the most attractive U.S. equity investments for 2015 -- in the entire stock market.
- A few macroeconomic and operational catalysts could give Ford's share price a serious boost.
- Investors still benefit from a high margin of safety, and a very compelling risk/reward ratio.
- Reaching $20 is only a question of when, not if.
- Barron's makes the case for American manufacturer icon Ford in the New Year postulating they should have 30% upside from current levels in 2015.
- The piece makes some of the same salient points I have made on the investment case for Ford recently as well as a few new ones.
- Investors looking for a good growth story with a high dividend yield selling at very reasonable valuations should take Ford for a ride in the New Year.
Barron's Bullish Ford Note Supports Our $28.50 Price Target
- Barron's put out a bullish note on Ford this weekend.
- Barron's thinks Ford can near $20 by the end of 2015, based on F-150 sales and international profitability.
- Reiterating our long-term $28.50 price target.
- Ford’s stock is trailing 20% below its 52-week high of $18.12 in spite of the record levels that the market has achieved.
- The required retooling of Ford’s F-150 factories to accommodate the upcoming all-aluminum bodied truck has taken a toll on the company’s profits.
- Production for the aluminum model has started, and reception of the new truck has been positive.
- Ford will gain a comparative advantage in more than just trucks; this will be the first aluminum-bodied vehicle to be produced on such a massive scale.
Ford Motor: Strong Reversal Pushing Shares Towards $17?
- Ford Motor's European sales data was top notch.
- Shares rose above $15 yesterday, though they couldn't hold this level as markets closed.
- Ford faces positive catalysts from the F-150 launch and from a solid sales performance in Europe.
- At just 9.1x forward earnings, the company remains seriously mis-priced.
- Mr. Market will ultimately rectify this mis-pricing, and analysts' rating updates could trigger a reevaluation of the company.
Ford Will Continue To Beat Expectations, Which Means The Stock Is A Strong Buy
- Ford shares sold off after its Investor Day, but sentiment became far too negative.
- Several Ford models are seeing growing sales momentum. Ford vehicles are selling particularly well in the emerging markets such as China.
- Investors buying low right now can take advantage of a cheap stock with a high dividend yield.
- Ford has a challenging year as earnings have declined due to a heavy new model roll out schedule and challenges within its European operations.
- However as we head into the New Year, this American manufacturing icon should have a better 2015 as sacrifices made in 2014 start to pay off.
- The stock is cheap, earnings should accelerate next year and shares have a 3.5% dividend yield. Why I see $18 to $20 a share for the stock in 2015.
Ford: A Dividend Growth Buying Opportunity Presents Itself
- Ford’s stock has tanked 17% over the last quarter, yet is up 2.47% for the month.
- The stock appears to have found support at the $14 level. Furthermore, free cash flow over $3.8 billion and rising.
- The sell off in the stock may have created an excellent dividend growth investment opportunity by driving the yield to over 3.5%.
Strong F-150 Product Launch Could Be A Catalyst For Ford Motor's Stock
- Ford's best-selling F-150 truck will likely see strong demand from consumers.
- Strong product launch and positive sales news could lead to analysts upgrading Ford's target prices.
- Ford Motor remains as undervalued as ever, and provides investors with a massive margin of safety.
- The company’s net income saw a decrease in this quarter as compared to third quarter last year, due to heavy investments in the new products and technologies.
- The global automotive industry is improving and growth in demand is expected from both establishing markets as well as from the U.S.
- Oil prices are forecast to decrease further in near future, lowering the impact of fuel-efficient cars on America automotive manufacturers.
- Electric cars, due to their current circumstances, don’t seem much of a threat for large automotive manufacturers.
- Price target is estimated to grow by 38 percent in next two years, it seems like a buying opportunity.
- All eyes are on Ford's new F-150.
- Despite a slow month, we're still bullish and are sticking with our long term $28.50 price target.
- Friday brought some unnoticed good news when it was reported that initial F-150 interest was robust.
- Ford has been an excellent performer since the depths of the Great Recession.
- However, a management change and a resetting of expectations have caught some investors by surprise.
- Let's examine third-quarter results and update readers on our thoughts.
Ford Motor Not A Compelling Value Despite The Recent Correction
- Ford Motor trades at 9x forward earnings after a 20%+ correction, despite a projected growth rate of more than 10%.
- However, Ford operates in a very competitive and economically sensitive industry.
- Although the shares yield an impressive 3.5%, the company's balance sheet appears risky.
- A DRAG analysis shows only minimal upside for Ford's shares given these risks and therefore investors would be wise to stay away from them despite the seemingly attractive multiple.
- F managed to beat consensus on the top and bottom lines.
- We still favor GM over F but note that the recent strength is encouraging.
- We noted that GM has the most interim upside given it doesn't have as much exposure to Europe.
Ford Motor: Thank You, Dear Mr. Market, I'll Gladly Buy More When You Are Scared
- Ford Motor reported third-quarter results last week.
- As a result, shares tumbled more than 4% in the latest display of investor anxiety.
- Investors should not expect one record quarter after another.
- Again, I'll buy more Ford shares, but only as long as investors are scared.
Ford Q3 2014 Review: North America Losing Pricing Power
- Ford issued a Q3 report that beat on the headlines but missed on guidance.
- North America pricing remains weak.
- Weak pricing trend may stay due to weaker yen and lower volume.
Oct. 7, 2013, 10:11 AM
- Ford (F -0.9%) has to make a call on how to handle questions on Alan Mulally's plans, according to industry watchers.
- Directors of the company are reportedly meeting this week to discuss the topic of Microsoft's rumored interest in Mulally.
- The Detroit automaker has only had ten leaders in its history dating back to founder Henry Ford.
Oct. 4, 2013, 11:54 AM
- Automakers continue to strategize over how to win a bigger share of the booming truck market in Texas.
- The state has seen trucks account for over 22% of all new vehicles registered this year, compared to some East Coast markets which are below 10%.
- The trend sets up well for General Motors (GM +0.8%) and Ford (F +0.5%) which both claim higher brand loyalty in Texas than in other parts of the U.S.
Oct. 4, 2013, 8:33 AM| 2 Comments
Oct. 1, 2013, 10:15 PM
- Reuters reports three of Microsoft's (MSFT) 20 biggest shareholders (combined 5%+ stake) want Bill Gates to resign as chairman, arguing he's blocking needed strategy changes and would prevent the company's next CEO from making them.
- The investors also reportedly think Gates retains power disproportionate to his stake, which is down to 4.5% and (assuming he continues selling ~80M shares/year through a 10b5-1 trading plan) is set to evaporate by 2018.
- Reuters doesn't disclose whether activist investor ValueAct (0.8% stake) is among the investors. But the news service did report last month three top-20 investors wanted Alan Mulally and Mike Lawrie on their CEO shortlist; Lawrie was once a ValueAct partner.
- Meanwhile, in a USA Today talk, Mulally downplayed a report he's now the frontrunner to replace Steve Ballmer, but didn't go as far as to formally deny it.
- Mulally: "I love serving Ford (F) and have nothing new to add to [my] plans to continue serving Ford."
Oct. 1, 2013, 9:56 AM
- Ford (F +1.2%) reports the F-Series now has five straight months of monthly sales in the U.S. of over 60K - a consistent level that shows the strength of the model.
- The Ford Fusion remain a hot-seller, YTD sales now total over 226K. The automaker notes Fusion sales in the west are particularly strong.
Oct. 1, 2013, 9:39 AM
- Ford's (F) unit sales +6% to 185,146 vs. estimates for a flat month.
- The automaker saw a 62% jump in Fusion sales and 29% rise in Fiesta help it post its best September sales tally since 2006.
- Ford brand sales rose 6.3% during the month, while Lincoln sales dropped 5.1%.
- For the month: Trucks +8.3%; Utilities -4.1; Cars 13.6%. (PR)
Sep. 30, 2013, 1:14 PM
- Auto sales in the U.S. are expected to post the first year-over-year decline in 28 months, but the industry is far from panicked.
- A calendar quirk had the Labor Day weekend included in sales tallies for August and September will have two fewer selling days than a year ago.
- Kelley Blue Book projects a seasonal adjusted selling rate of 15.2M units for the month.
- What to watch: A far better tell on the direction of U.S. auto sales is the steady stream of reports of vehicle shortages due to hot demand.
- Related stocks: GM, F, TM, FIATY.PK, HMC, NSANY.OB, TSLA, VLKAY.PK, DDAIF.PK, HYMLF.PK, BAMXY.PK, KIMTF.PK, VOLVY.PK, MZDAY.PK, MMTOF.PK, FUJHY.PK, FUJHF.PK
- Related ETFs: CARZ, VROM
Sep. 30, 2013, 8:08 AM
- Ford (F) could top the 300K mark for sales of its Fusion model as the midsize sedan remains highly popular with consumers.
- The automaker continues to see the Fusion make market share gains without using major incentives.
- Execs with Ford say demand for the Fusion is tilting toward the higher-end trim.
Sep. 27, 2013, 10:37 AM
- Shares of Ford (F -0.8%) are mildly under-performing market averages today as news that CEO Alan Mulally is on the hot list to take the top job at Microsoft adds to the backdrop.
- Mulally has been at Ford since 2006 and is widely credited for navigating the automaker successfully during the period.
- Ford COO Mark Fields told the Detroit News earlier today that the departure rumors are not a distraction for the automaker.
Sep. 27, 2013, 6:56 AM
- Ford (F) exec joe Hinrichs says auto sales in the month of September were top-heavy with the pace slowing after a very strong Labor Day weekend.
- Analysts have the annual selling rate for the month pegged at 15.2M-15.4M, lower than the 16.1M rate from August.
- A calendar anomaly accounts for a portion of the dip.
Sep. 26, 2013, 5:52 PM
- Sources tell Kara Swisher Ford (F) CEO and Steve Ballmer confidante Alan Mulally "has vaulted to the forefront" of the list of potential candidates to succeed Ballmer as Microsoft's (MSFT) CEO.
- Though Stephen Elop (set to join Microsoft through the Nokia deal) is still reportedly a top candidate, Swisher's sources claim there has "been a shift in recent weeks toward Mulally," who has shown a knack for corporate turnarounds during his time at Ford and Boeing (but hasn't worked for a tech company).
- Mulally reportedly advised Ballmer on Microsoft's big reorg (I, II).
- Previous: Top Microsoft investors want Mulally, Lawrie on CEO shortlist
Sep. 26, 2013, 2:43 PM
- Nine companies based in Japan and two executives agree to plead guilty and to pay a combined $740M in fines for their roles in conspiracies to fix the prices of auto parts sold to U.S. car manufacturers, the Department of Justice says.
- The DoJ says price-fixed automobile parts were sold to GM, Ford (F) and Chrysler (FIATY.PK), as well as to U.S. subsidiaries of Honda (HMC), Mazda (MZDAF.PK, MZDAY.PK), Mitsubishi (MMTOF.PK), Nissan (NSANY.OB), Toyota (TM) and Subaru (FUJHY.PK, FUJHF.PK).
- Among the parts affected by the conspiracies were seat belts, radiators, windshield wipers, air conditioning systems, power window motors and power steering components.
Sep. 26, 2013, 12:13 PM
- Ford (F -0.1%) will announce later today that it's buying Livio Radio, reports TechCrunch.
- The automotive app maker will reportedly change hands for less than $10M.
- The acquisition will become very appealing if Livio can establish a universal platform in the industry through its intellectual property.
Sep. 26, 2013, 8:42 AM
- Toyota (TM) could lose the distinction of having the top-selling model in the U.S. next year as serious challengers emerge.
- Automobile industry analysts think the Ford Fusion (F), Honda Accord (HMC), or Nissan Altima (NSANY.OB) could all be in the hunt.
- Changes in capacity levels by the automakers and their levels of incentives could ultimately tip the scales.
Sep. 20, 2013, 6:55 AM| 2 Comments
Sep. 19, 2013, 10:31 AM
- A new government regulation in India which requires automakers to recall vehicles with defects could calm fears major automakers are skirting manufacturing issues.
- Though the measure will add some costs for foreign auto companies, it could also ease resentment against the group with modern standards in place.
- Related stocks: TTM, GM, F, TM, RNSDF.PK.
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