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ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Ford Motor Company
- Ford Motor is suitable for Enterprising Investors, but not Defensive Investors following the ModernGraham approach.
- According to the ModernGraham valuation model, the company is undervalued at the present time.
- The market is implying an annual loss of 0.1% in earnings over the next 7-10 years, which is significantly less than the growth the company has seen in recent years.
Ford Motor: 3 Catalysts For Ford Motor That Could Drive The Share Price Past $20 In 2015
- Ford Motor is one of the most attractive U.S. equity investments for 2015 -- in the entire stock market.
- A few macroeconomic and operational catalysts could give Ford's share price a serious boost.
- Investors still benefit from a high margin of safety, and a very compelling risk/reward ratio.
- Reaching $20 is only a question of when, not if.
- Barron's makes the case for American manufacturer icon Ford in the New Year postulating they should have 30% upside from current levels in 2015.
- The piece makes some of the same salient points I have made on the investment case for Ford recently as well as a few new ones.
- Investors looking for a good growth story with a high dividend yield selling at very reasonable valuations should take Ford for a ride in the New Year.
Barron's Bullish Ford Note Supports Our $28.50 Price Target
- Barron's put out a bullish note on Ford this weekend.
- Barron's thinks Ford can near $20 by the end of 2015, based on F-150 sales and international profitability.
- Reiterating our long-term $28.50 price target.
- Ford’s stock is trailing 20% below its 52-week high of $18.12 in spite of the record levels that the market has achieved.
- The required retooling of Ford’s F-150 factories to accommodate the upcoming all-aluminum bodied truck has taken a toll on the company’s profits.
- Production for the aluminum model has started, and reception of the new truck has been positive.
- Ford will gain a comparative advantage in more than just trucks; this will be the first aluminum-bodied vehicle to be produced on such a massive scale.
Ford Motor: Strong Reversal Pushing Shares Towards $17?
- Ford Motor's European sales data was top notch.
- Shares rose above $15 yesterday, though they couldn't hold this level as markets closed.
- Ford faces positive catalysts from the F-150 launch and from a solid sales performance in Europe.
- At just 9.1x forward earnings, the company remains seriously mis-priced.
- Mr. Market will ultimately rectify this mis-pricing, and analysts' rating updates could trigger a reevaluation of the company.
Ford Will Continue To Beat Expectations, Which Means The Stock Is A Strong Buy
- Ford shares sold off after its Investor Day, but sentiment became far too negative.
- Several Ford models are seeing growing sales momentum. Ford vehicles are selling particularly well in the emerging markets such as China.
- Investors buying low right now can take advantage of a cheap stock with a high dividend yield.
- Ford has a challenging year as earnings have declined due to a heavy new model roll out schedule and challenges within its European operations.
- However as we head into the New Year, this American manufacturing icon should have a better 2015 as sacrifices made in 2014 start to pay off.
- The stock is cheap, earnings should accelerate next year and shares have a 3.5% dividend yield. Why I see $18 to $20 a share for the stock in 2015.
Ford: A Dividend Growth Buying Opportunity Presents Itself
- Ford’s stock has tanked 17% over the last quarter, yet is up 2.47% for the month.
- The stock appears to have found support at the $14 level. Furthermore, free cash flow over $3.8 billion and rising.
- The sell off in the stock may have created an excellent dividend growth investment opportunity by driving the yield to over 3.5%.
Strong F-150 Product Launch Could Be A Catalyst For Ford Motor's Stock
- Ford's best-selling F-150 truck will likely see strong demand from consumers.
- Strong product launch and positive sales news could lead to analysts upgrading Ford's target prices.
- Ford Motor remains as undervalued as ever, and provides investors with a massive margin of safety.
- The company’s net income saw a decrease in this quarter as compared to third quarter last year, due to heavy investments in the new products and technologies.
- The global automotive industry is improving and growth in demand is expected from both establishing markets as well as from the U.S.
- Oil prices are forecast to decrease further in near future, lowering the impact of fuel-efficient cars on America automotive manufacturers.
- Electric cars, due to their current circumstances, don’t seem much of a threat for large automotive manufacturers.
- Price target is estimated to grow by 38 percent in next two years, it seems like a buying opportunity.
- All eyes are on Ford's new F-150.
- Despite a slow month, we're still bullish and are sticking with our long term $28.50 price target.
- Friday brought some unnoticed good news when it was reported that initial F-150 interest was robust.
- Ford has been an excellent performer since the depths of the Great Recession.
- However, a management change and a resetting of expectations have caught some investors by surprise.
- Let's examine third-quarter results and update readers on our thoughts.
Ford Motor Not A Compelling Value Despite The Recent Correction
- Ford Motor trades at 9x forward earnings after a 20%+ correction, despite a projected growth rate of more than 10%.
- However, Ford operates in a very competitive and economically sensitive industry.
- Although the shares yield an impressive 3.5%, the company's balance sheet appears risky.
- A DRAG analysis shows only minimal upside for Ford's shares given these risks and therefore investors would be wise to stay away from them despite the seemingly attractive multiple.
- F managed to beat consensus on the top and bottom lines.
- We still favor GM over F but note that the recent strength is encouraging.
- We noted that GM has the most interim upside given it doesn't have as much exposure to Europe.
Ford Motor: Thank You, Dear Mr. Market, I'll Gladly Buy More When You Are Scared
- Ford Motor reported third-quarter results last week.
- As a result, shares tumbled more than 4% in the latest display of investor anxiety.
- Investors should not expect one record quarter after another.
- Again, I'll buy more Ford shares, but only as long as investors are scared.
Ford Q3 2014 Review: North America Losing Pricing Power
- Ford issued a Q3 report that beat on the headlines but missed on guidance.
- North America pricing remains weak.
- Weak pricing trend may stay due to weaker yen and lower volume.
Wed, Oct. 1, 9:45 AM
- Ford (NYSE:F) reports a drop in sales for cars and trucks, while sales for utilities rose 1.5%..
- The automaker has tempered its volumes in anticipation of new model introductions.
- Sales growth by brand: Ford -3.2% to 172,918; Lincoln +12.5% to 7,257.
- Sales growth by model: Ford Fusion +8.6% to 21,693; Ford Fiesta -17.0% to 4,185; Ford Mustang -28.6% to 3,158; Ford F-Series -1.0% to 59,863; Ford Explorer +0.8% to 13,770; Ford Transit (new) 1,255; Ford Transit Connect +29.6% to 4,132; Lincoln Navigator +23.8% to 1,013.
Wed, Oct. 1, 9:39 AM
Wed, Oct. 1, 7:55 AM| 5 Comments
Mon, Sep. 29, 4:26 PM
- Ford (NYSE:F) expects its profit margins for North America to be on the low end of its previously-issued guidance of 8% to 9%.
- Annual sales in North America are expected to rise 21% to 3.5M by 2020.
- Ford Investor Day Conference (webcast, slides)
- Previous coverage on Ford's guidance
- F -0.5% AH after a 7.5% late-day dip.
Mon, Sep. 29, 4:18 PM
- Shares of Ford (NYSE:F) ended the day 7.5% lower on a late selling flurry after the automaker forecast a loss of $1B in South America due to currency issues and issued weak guidance for Europe as well.
- Pre-tax profit for 2014 is pegged at $6B by the company.
- The comments from Ford management came during an Investor Day Conference (webcast, slides).
- F -0.5% AH.
Mon, Sep. 29, 7:15 AM
- Ford (NYSE:F) delivers the new aluminum-bodied F-150 to consumers at retail outlets in 38 cities in a test drive initiative.
- The automaker says the light F-150 has been "tortured-tested" for more than 10M miles to ensure reliability and durability.
- A 5% to 20% improvement in fuel economy is projected by Ford with the new F-150.
Sat, Sep. 27, 8:05 AM
- Ford (NYSE:F) is recalling ~850K vehicles due to concerns that an electrical glitch could cause air bags in affected vehicles to malfunction during an accident.
- The recall includes 2013 and 2014 model year Fusion sedans, Escape crossovers, C-Max hybrids and Lincoln MKZ luxury cars sold in North America, Canada and Mexico.
- The Escape crossover has been recalled 12 times over the past two years for a variety of issues; ~208K Escapes have been sold YTD through August, making it Ford's third most popular selling vehicle behind the Fusion and F-series pickup truck.
Fri, Sep. 26, 1:59 PM
- A forecast for strong growth in the luxury segment underpins the aggressive investments many foreign automakers are making in China.
- General Motors expects 10% of all cars sold in China will be a luxury model by the end of the decade.
- Luxury sales are up 15% YTD in the nation.
- Related stocks: OTCPK:DDAIF, OTCPK:BAMXY, OTCQX:VLKAY, GM, OTCPK:NSANY, TM, TTM, F.
Thu, Sep. 25, 3:00 PM
- Kelley Blue Book estimates U.S. auto sales increased 9% in September to 1.24M units.
- The sales forecast for the year is raised to 16.4M units from 16.3M.
- The compact SUV/crossover segment showed the strongest growth during the month with sales rising at a 19.1% clip, according to KBB.
- KBB sales forecast by manufacturer: General Motors (NYSE:GM) +15.9% to 217K; Toyota (NYSE:TM) +7.0% to 176K; Ford (NYSE:F) -2.4% to 180K; Chrysler (OTCPK:FIATY) +17.5% to 168K; Honda (NYSE:HMC) +11.8% to 118K; Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) +17.4% to 102K; Hyundai (OTC:HYMLF) +10.6% to 103K; Volkswagen (OTCQX:VLKAY) +3.9% to 50K.
Thu, Sep. 25, 12:09 PM| 4 Comments
Thu, Sep. 25, 6:45 AM
Mon, Sep. 22, 2:01 PM
- Governor Jerry Brown of California has been busy signing bills to help support the electric vehicle industry in the state.
- Brown signed bills to help low-income drivers afford EVs and extend charging networks into new neighborhoods.
- A long-term goal is in place by the state to have 1.5M zero-emission vehicles on the roads by 2025.
- Models which could see a boost from California's latest round of EV-friendly legislation includes the BMW i3, Chevrolet Volt, Tesla Model S, Toyota Prius plug-in, Honda Accord plug-in, Nissan Leaf, Ford Fusion Energi, Ford C-Max Energi, BMW i3, and the Cadillac ELR.
- Related stocks: OTCPK:BAMXY, OTCPK:NSANY, TM, HMC, F, GM, TSLA.
Mon, Sep. 22, 7:45 AM
- Early global demand for the redesigned Ford Mustang is exceeding expectations, according to one of the automaker's group presidents.
- Ford (NYSE:F) plans to introduce the iconic model in new markets in Europe and Asia next year.
- The automaker is building all of its Mustangs at Flat Rock, Michigan - including a right-hand-drive model.
- What to watch: Mustang sales in the U.S. are up 3.5% YTD on a tight 34 days supply inventory in front of the new introduction.
Fri, Sep. 19, 7:02 AM| 6 Comments
Thu, Sep. 18, 7:27 AM
Thu, Sep. 18, 3:16 AM
- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has put forward a plan to begin supervising the finance units of major car companies, overseeing the 38 largest nonbank lenders in the automotive industry.
- Under the plan, the regulator will scrutinize whether nonbank car-loan providers are discriminating against minorities, using deceptive tactics in marketing loans and following debt-collection laws.
- The new plan would put the finance divisions of major automakers under federal supervision for the first time.
- Related tickers: GM, F, TM, OTCPK:FIATY, HMC, OTCPK:NSANY, TSLA, OTCQX:VLKAY, OTCPK:DDAIF, OTC:HYMLF, OTCPK:BAMXY, KMX
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