Oct. 10, 2014, 1:42 PM
- Following Microchip's warning and related prediction of a chip industry correction, Goldman's James Covello thinks there's 15%-20% downside in industry names.
- Covello, who lowered his industry view to Cautious in August: "The last time Microchip negatively preannounced was October 15, 2012 (3% sales miss). Between October 1 and December 31, Street 2013 sales estimates for the Semi group were revised down 6% on average."
- He adds several datapoints suggest the industry has been overheating. Among them: Semi revenue growth has outpaced end-market growth, and supply chain inventory dollars rose 3% more than their 3-year average in Q2.
- "Nobody will be spared," predicts Hedgeye's Craig Berger. Benchmark's Gary Mobley observes 5 of the 6 chip stocks to have made Q3 pre-announcements have thus done so to the downside.
- Worth noting: Mobile chipmaker Silicon Motion (SIMO -8.9%) is the one chipmaker to have positively pre-announced. It might not be a coincidence that Microchip has relatively low mobile exposure.
- Observing U.S. macro data remains positive even as China and Europe soften, Longbow's JoAnne Feeney remains bullish long-term on select names. However, she has cut her short-term rating on Linear (LLTC -3.8%) to Sell, and removed IDT (IDTI -7.1%) from her trading long list.
- In addition to the names previously mentioned, the following chip stocks are seeing steep losses: AMD -5.1%. FCS -13.6%. NXPI -11.2%. CODE -11%. LSCC -9.6%. SIMG -8.1%. IPHI -7.7%. ISIL -9.5%. CY -6.9%. RMBS -7.1%. QUIK -5.7%. SQNS -5.1%. IMOS -6.5%.
- Foundries and contract manufacturers are also selling off: TSM -3.9%. UMC -2%. SMI -2.4%. SANM -11.7%. FLEX -6.8%. JBL -4%.
- Chip ETFs: SOXX, SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
Oct. 10, 2014, 12:45 PM
Aug. 20, 2014, 11:51 AM
- Fairchild (FCS +2.5%), Intersil (ISIL +1.3%), Semtech (SMTC +2.6%) and Power Integrations (POWI +3.3%) have all given back a chunk of their early gains. Peer International Rectifier, which also rallied, has been halted.
- All 5 companies had jumped on a Bloomberg report stating Infineon is nearing a deal to buy a U.S. chipmaker for ~$2B.
Aug. 20, 2014, 10:15 AM
- Bloomberg reports Infineon (OTCPK:IFNNF) "nearing an agreement to acquire a U.S.- based semiconductor company for about $2 billion," and that a deal could be announced as soon as today.
- No word on whom Infineon is looking to buy. Bloomberg notes it reported last month analog/mixed-signal chipmakers Fairchild (FCS +5.6%), Power Integrations (POWI +11.3%), and Semtech (SMTC +8%) are considered M&A targets, as the chip industry continues to consolidate.
- Shares of all three companies are up sharply, as are those of peers International Rectifier (IRF +5.8%) and Intersil (ISIL +4.4%). FCS and IRF are currently worth $2B; POWI is worth $1.9B; ISIL is worth $1.8B; and SMTC is worth $1.7B.
- "[Infineon] would like to build a stronger presence in power management," says Liberum Capital's Janardan Menon. He adds the market has "high barriers to entry and strong growth prospects," a fact that also hasn't been lost on Texas Instruments and other industry players.
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Apr. 16, 2014, 1:47 PM
- Though the Nasdaq is up 0.7%, many chip stocks are heading in the opposite direction (SOXX -0.6%) after Intel provided mixed Q1 top-line numbers for its business units - server chip sales were healthy, mobile sales were weak, and PC sales were in between - ASML lowered its 1H14 sales outlook and provided cautious 2H remarks (has dinged many chip equipment stocks), and Linear offered somewhat soft March quarter guidance.
- Notable decliners: CRUS -3.3%. ENTR -3.3%. QUIK -2.4%. CAVM -2%. PSMI -3.6%. ADI -2.3%. TXN -1.4%. MXIM -1.5%. FCS -1.5%. The last four companies all compete against Linear.
- Himax (HIMX -1.5%) is off after Chardan Capital lowered its PT to $9 from $12; the firm downgraded Himax in January. Shares tumbled on Monday, then ticked higher on Tuesday following a Q1 pre-announcement.
- Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
Jan. 24, 2014, 9:45 AM
- SAP (SAP -1.5%) has been cut to Hold by Argus and Berenberg. The software giant posted mixed Q4 results and offered cautious guidance earlier this week.
- Mellanox (MLNX -5.9%) has been cut to Underweight by Barclays ahead of Wednesday's Q4 report.
- Angie's List (ANGI +0.2%) has been upgraded to Buy by B. Riley. Q4 results arrive on Feb. 12.
- FireEye (FEYE -4.7%) has been cut to Equal Weight by Barclays following a massive run-up in the wake of the Mandiant deal.
- Fairchild (FCS -4.6%) has been cut to Underperform by BofA/Merrill a day after delivering mixed Q4 results and forecasting a Q1 gross margin decline. Deutsche cut shares to Hold yesterday.
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Jan. 23, 2014, 12:05 AM
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Dec. 12, 2013, 10:53 AM
- Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS +1.3%) shares trade up on a day that the Market Vectors semiconductor ETF is off 0.48% after the company's board authorizes a $100M share repurchase program.
- CEO Mark Thompson: "We completed a significant investment cycle to increase our 8 inch wafer fabrication capabilities last year and now expect lower capital spending for many years."
- The program would be good for reducing shares outstanding by ~6% at current price levels.
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