Aug. 28, 2013, 10:50 AM
- Retail traffic to U.S. stores has declined in 8 out of the last 10 weeks, according to data compiled from ShopperTrak.
- Though a few on-trend firms such as Michael Kors (KORS +0.1%) and Express (EXPR +8.5%) are still firing on all cylinders, and a heat wave in the Midwest has had an effect, the overall trend for the back-to-school season and holiday season looks weak.
- Analysts also think consumers are likely to pick up their reliance on deals as discretionary spending on housing and automobiles "crowds out" normal outlays.
- Related ETFs: XRT, RTH, PMR, RETL.
- Related stocks: APP, AEO, ANF, AZO, BBBY, BBY, BJ, CHS, COH, COST, DG, FDO, FL, GPS, HD, JCP, JNY, JWN, KSS, LTD, LULU, M, NDN, ODP, ORLY, PIR, RGS, RL, SKS, SPLS, TGT, TIF, TJX, UA, UNFI, URBN, VFC, WMT, WRC, ZLC.
Aug. 26, 2013, 9:41 AM
- Deutsche Bank thinks shares of Dollar Tree (DLTR +1.6%) look more attractive than those of Family Dollar (FDO +0.2%).
- While valuation on Family Dollar has run up a bit too much, the firm sees upside for Dollar Tree with easier sales comps upcoming and the retailer's ability to generate higher free cash flow still in play.
Aug. 21, 2013, 1:40 PM
- Retail is in a state of "bifurcation" as on-trend luxury retailers (KORS, JWN, TIF) and home improvement specialists (HD, LOW) thrive, while heavyweight merchandise retailers (WMT, TGT, COST), mall-based apparel chains (AEO, ARO, LTD), and discounters (DG, DLTR, FDO) disappoint.
- As execs with Target noted during the firm's earnings call this morning, consumers seem more than happy to buy new automobiles and fix up their houses - but have tightened up on toothbrushes, socks, and soap.
- A few companies - through some good luck and solid execution - sit in a consumer demand sweet spot. Ross Stores (RST), TJX Companies (TJX), and Subaru (FUJHY.PK) come to mind.
- Related ETFs: XRT, RTH, PMR, RETL.
Aug. 21, 2013, 9:32 AM
- AIG remains the "king of the hedge fund castle" writes ValueWalk, as Goldman's latest Hedge Fund Monitor shows 69 funds have the stock in their top 10 holdings as of June 30, ahead of #2 Google (GOOG) at 65 and #3 Apple (AAPL) at 50. The percent of equity cap owned by hedge funds is 14% for AIG, as opposed to negligible amounts for both Google and Apple.
- Based on percent of equity cap owned by hedge funds, Charter Communications (CHTR) is the #1 hedge fund hotel at 37%. Among S&P 500 stocks, J.C. Penney at 36%, Constellation Brands (STZ) at 30% and H&R Block (HRB) at 26% lead the way. The average for the entire S&P 500 is 5%.
- Goldman's basket of 20 "Most concentrated" hedge fund stocks has outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 1200 bps YTD. Since 2001, the strategy has outperformed the S&P 69% of the time and by an average of 263 bps per quarter. In addition to the earlier-mentioned names there's: AN, VRSN, FDO, THC, CBG, GT, NFLX, TRIP, LYB, WPX, MSI, BEAM, DLTR, ZTS, WYN, LM, ETFC.
Aug. 20, 2013, 9:47 AM
- A solid quarter from TJX Companies (TJX +4.6%) and a raise in guidance helps confirm a stepping-down trend in retail as consumers shop for values.
- Fellow off-price specialist Ross Stores (ROST) is up 3% on the day off the same optimism shoppers will flock to its stores.
- The consumer spending pattern could also be an influence for the dollar store group (DG, DLTR, FDO).
Aug. 14, 2013, 12:11 PM
- Family Dollar (FDO +2.9%) is seen as a bigger takeover target after a restriction on investor Nelson Peltz raising his stake to over 9.9% expired.
- Since July 22, shares of FDO are up close to 10% and options activity indicates bullish sentiment.
- A combination of the discounter with Dollar General (DG +0.1%) has been bandied about as has a P-E takeout.
Aug. 13, 2013, 3:06 PM
- If the Department of Justice is going to flex its anti-trust muscles on the US Airways and American Airlines merger could other high-profile deals - both rumored and in progress - be at risk?
- Discounters: Dollar General (DG) and Family Dollar (FDO).
- Satellite: DirecTV (DTV) and Dish Network (DISH).
- Office stores: OfficeMax (OMX) and Office Depot (ODP).
- Snacks: PepsiCo (PEP) and Mondelez International (MDLZ).
Aug. 8, 2013, 11:19 AM| Comment!
Jul. 10, 2013, 11:25 AMWhat Family Dollar (FDO +4.6%) didn't say: Though the retailer's earnings were solid enough to satisfy investors, the company didn't buy back any stock during the quarter to mark the first time it resisted the urge since 2009. According to JPMorgan's Matthew Boss, this development is a tad interesting given that Nelson Peltz's standstill agreement expires in two weeks. | 1 Comment
Jul. 10, 2013, 8:47 AMThe dollar store conundrum: Though Family Dollar's (FDO) FQ3 earnings report and guidance came in slightly above expectations, the numbers highlighted a disturbing trend for the sector (DG, DLTR, FIVE) with lower-margin consumables sales growing while higher-margin discretionary sales fall. | 2 Comments
Jul. 10, 2013, 7:47 AM
Jul. 10, 2013, 7:22 AMMore on Family Dollar's (FDO) Q3: Comparable sales rose 2.9% during the quarter as sales of consumables outpaced sales of discretionary items. Sales growth was influenced by both higher average customer transaction value and increased customer traffic. SG&A expenses as a percentage of total sales declined 20 bps to 27.4%. The company forecasts Q4 comparable sales will rise 2% vs. prior guidance of 2%-4% and sees EPS falling in a range of $0.82 to $0.87. (PR) | Comment!
Jul. 10, 2013, 7:10 AM
Jul. 10, 2013, 12:05 AM
Jul. 9, 2013, 5:30 PM
Jul. 1, 2013, 3:03 PMShares of Family Dollar (FDO +1.6%) are "approaching an inflection point," Deutsche's Paul Trussell says, noting that "margin degradation" and comps deceleration in H1 may have "left investors paralyzed." Although the business "faces a number of risks," including a pressured low income consumer and high inventory levels, "these concerns are well known" and are ultimately eclipsed by "enormous opportunity to improve the top-line," Trussell adds. Price target: $70. By contrast, SA contributor Ryan Jacobson thinks the company will "struggle to deliver." | Comment!
FDO vs. ETF Alternatives
Family Dollar Stores Inc provides consumers with a selection of competitively priced merchandise in convenient neighbourhood stores. Its merchandise assortment includes consumables, home products, apparel accessories, seasonal and electronics.
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