The Savings Glut Era: Continued Low Real Interest Rates
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Wed, Jun. 25, 4:41 AM
- Expectations of U.S. and euro zone break-even rates seem to be heading in opposite directions, as investors wager on opposing consumer price outlooks. The break-even rates, as measured by the difference between yields on 10-year nominal Treasury notes and TIPs, are at about 2.3% in the U.S. This greatly differs in the euro zone, where Germany reports a rate of 1.3%.
- TIPs are expected to gain in popularity over the next year, as break-evens expect to rise in par with U.S. inflation. However, the euro zone is currently dealing with a falling inflation rate. Despite the European Central Bank instituting a 2% inflation mandate, annual inflation in the euro zone was only 0.5% in May.
- ETFs: TIP, WIP, VTIP, SCHP, IPE, LTPZ, STPZ, TIPZ, STIP, ILB, ITIP, GTIP, TPS, TDTT, TIPX, TDTF, SIPE, RINF, INFL, UINF, FINF, DEFL, SINF
Dec. 12, 2013, 6:53 PM
- The U.S. House overwhelmingly approves (332-94) a two-year budget framework spearheaded by Paul Ryan and Patty Murray that would remove the threat of a shutdown during the period. The eye-to-eye across the aisle comes as somewhat of a surprise and a rarity amid the rancor that has gripped budget battles in the past 2 years.
- John Boehner noted that the measure amounted to a small step toward the GOP's goal of deficit reduction: "Is it perfect? Does it go far enough? No, not at all," he said, while urging colleagues to support the plan. Democrat Chris Van Hollen: a "small positive step forward."
- The deal now goes to a Democratic Senate, which is expected to sign off as early as next week.
- Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TIP, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TTT, TMF, VTIP, IPE, TLH, ZROZ, SBND, IEI, SCHP, DLBS, TYO, LTPZ, DTYS, STPZ, VGLT, TIPZ, UST, BIL, SHV, STIP, PLW, GOVT, UBT, TBX, TLO, VGSH, VGIT, RINF, DTYL, GSY, LBND, SCHR, TYD, SCHO, ITE, TYBS, TPS, TRSY, TENZ, INFL, SST, DTUL, TDTT, TUZ, FIVZ, DTUS, TBZ, FINF, DFVL, UINF, DEFL, DLBL, DFVS, TDTF, TIPX, TYNS, SINF
Jul. 31, 2013, 3:31 PM
- TIPS (TIP +0.6%) turn from lower on the session to a sizable gain following the FOMC statement where the committee brought previous dissenter Jim Bullard on board by noting inflation below the 2% objective could pose a risk to the economy.
- The 10-year TIPS yield is down to 0.42% from 0.48% earlier, the 30-year down to 1.34% from 1.4%.
- TIPS, of course, become more valuable as inflation rises as their principal moves alongside.
Jun. 22, 2013, 9:30 AMIt's "total capitulation" in fixed income (AGG, BND), says BAML's Michael Hartnett. The "blood bath" includes the largest-ever three-week rush of bond-fund redemptions, $2.6B leaving (2nd largest outflow ever) the Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB), and mortgage-backed securities (MBB), municipal bonds (MUB), and TIPS (TIP) funds each now showing net outflows for 2013. | 47 Comments
Jun. 12, 2013, 4:26 PMAdd TIPS (TIP) to the list of safe-havens proving to be anything but as this sort of inflation-protection doesn't work when rates rise but inflation doesn't. The rout has sent the yield on 10-year TIPS into positive territory for the first time since Dec. 2011, reports Carolyn Cui. Investors have pulled $7.2B out of TIPS ETFs this year, already more than the $5.2B inflow for all 2012. | 3 Comments
Jun. 4, 2013, 4:42 PM
May. 30, 2013, 3:39 PMState Street launches the SPDR 1-10 Year TIPS ETF (TIPX), set to track the Barclays 1-10 Year Government Inflation-linked Bond Index. It appears similar in structure to another State Street TIPS fund (IPE), but with an expense ratio 3.5 bps lower at 0.15%. Also launched is the SPDR S&P Global Dividend ETF (WDIV), set to track the S&P Global Dividend Aristocrats Index. It has a cost of 0.40% and joins competitors DEW and LVL, each of those with coming with slightly higher costs. | 1 Comment
May. 15, 2013, 3:40 PMMore from Gundlach: Not concerned about inflation, he calls TIPS (TIP) "pretty bad" investments and says he'll be a buyer if the 10-year (TLT) yield bounces back to 2% (off 3 bps today to 1.94%). As for the inevitable Apple (AAPL -3.3%) question - he prefers the common stock to the just-issued bonds. Warren Buffett says he prays for stocks he owns to go down in price - it allows him and company repurchase programs to buy at better prices. Is Apple putting money to work the last couple of days? | 15 Comments
Apr. 26, 2013, 3:26 PMTIPS have mostly rebounded from a recent selloff, but Barclays spots an opportunity at the short-end of the curve. Some 1-year notes are expected to fall in price next week when they fall out of the Barclays U.S. TIPS Index (which must drop them when less than a year to maturity). The ensuing forced selling by funds such as the TIP could create a bargain price for buyers. | Comment!
Apr. 19, 2013, 12:48 PMBill Gross takes advantage of the recent selloff in TIPS (TIP) to add to his holdings, noting the break-even rate for longer-dated paper has fallen to 2.35% (if inflation comes in above this number, TIPS outperform Treasurys). Yesterday's Treasury auction of TIPS was a mess, with one trader calling the action a "get me out" trade. Gross is getting in. | 1 Comment
Apr. 15, 2013, 1:42 PMGold isn't the only inflation hedge losing fans as funds owning TIPS have seen 3 straight months of outflows, according to Morningstar, the first such streak since 2008. At current levels, 5-year TIPS (TIP) would break even only if inflation rises more than 2.18% annually. "We just don't see (it)," says formerly bullish strategist Dan Heckman, whose fund has been a seller of late. | 1 Comment
Jan. 25, 2013, 3:24 PMInflation-protected securities have duration as well. Today's selloff in Treasurys (TLT -1.5%) is also taking a bite out of TIPS (TIP -0.5%). Meanwhile, Morningstar launches its Real Asset Index which will hold a portfolio of TIPS, REITs, and commodity stocks and futures. Perhaps an ETF will soon be launched to track it. | Comment!
Dec. 19, 2012, 3:27 PMBill Gross (BOND) is "lightening positions" in MBS after they've been a big winner for his funds this year (interesting: the MBB has actually declined since the Fed began QE∞). He's also cutting back on his holdings of corporate paper (LQD). Expecting the Fed to eventually produce higher inflation, he's added to his holdings of TIPS (TIP), while cutting back on non-inflation protected Treasurys. | 3 Comments
Dec. 12, 2012, 4:36 PMTreasurys have a tough day following the Fed's decision to pour on the liquidity, the price on the 10-year note falling nearly half a point following the FOMC announcement. Inflation-protected securities continue to be a (relatively) excellent place to hide out, with TIP -0.3% against TLT's 1.2% decline. No inflation worries? TIPS have outperformed Treasurys of a similar maturity by a wide margin this year. | Comment!
Dec. 6, 2012, 11:28 AM
Nov. 21, 2012, 11:47 AM
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