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- Commercial Real Estate Still in Fairly Good Shape [view article]
- A Closer Look at REIT-Treasury Yield Spreads (1971- Present) [view article]
- Morgan Stanley: Commercial Construction Is the Recession's Next Victim [view article]
- Real Estate [REIT] ETFs [view article]
- Are REITs Really a Bargain? [view article]
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- Eight US Real Estate ETFs
- Commercial Real Estate Still in Fairly Good Shape
- A Closer Look at REIT-Treasury Yield Spreads (1971- Present)
- Morgan Stanley: Commercial Construction Is the Recession's Next Victim
- Real Estate ETFs - A Quick Overview
- Are REITs Really a Bargain?
- Real Estate [REIT] ETFs
- Timing the Real Estate Market With iShares' New Sector REITs
- Five New iShares Real Estate ETFs Track FTSE NAREIT Indexes
- Housing ETFs: iShares Home Construction Down, Barclays' New REITS Offerings
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Commercial Real Estate Still in Fairly Good Shape [view article]
I think our high running cost in Iraq not returning its equity will cause an unexpeted surprising drop of real -estate market and lot of other things.Be aware.
Reply
Commercial Real Estate Still in Fairly Good Shape [view article]
I agree that commercial property values have not fallen significantly yet. However, the lack of activity indicates that buyers are unwilling to transact at current levels. When the sellers become more realistic on values, properties will start to sell.The FED is unlikely to reduce interest rates in the next 6 months, so unless the stimulus package works (which I doubt), any bad economic news will have a negative effect on equities and property prices. Reply
A Closer Look at REIT-Treasury Yield Spreads (1971- Present) [view article]
>>I doubt any ready free source is available that would directly give you the spread information in that chart. <<While that may be true, my experience is that most of what can be done in Excel I can also do in my trading software using appropriate methodology. But one needs the native price series as a start. Oh, and it doesn't have to be free; I only used Yahoo as an example as its widely known; I would have extrapolated the Yahoo symbol for my data provider.
>>If you want to use market data going forward and for short historical periods, it might be just as effective to follow one of the REIT ETFs that are based on an index...<<
The problem with using ETFs as index substitutes is:
- one doesn't know how closely they track the underlying index ("tracking error")
- ETFs are realtively new so even the oldest one doesn't have a long history
- they often pay dividends that distort the price series, making calculations unreliable
My idea was that if I had the index symbol and its data from a data vendor or Yahoo, then I could backtest the hypothesis for myself and perhaps play around with the variables (I am a systematic trader).
If you do happen to become aware of the appropriate symbol(s), do post them for the benefit of folks like me. Thank you. Reply
A Closer Look at REIT-Treasury Yield Spreads (1971- Present) [view article]
buyitcheap --you are correct that rising rates due to inflation or less of a flight to quality and liquidity in Treasuries could pose a real yield spread challenge to equity REITs Reply
A Closer Look at REIT-Treasury Yield Spreads (1971- Present) [view article]
dumbo --I prefer not to rely on secondary services for data, such as Yahoo, when the primary source is available. The primary source will generally offer more raw data elements, and perhaps for longer historical periods. I am not aware one way or the other about NAREIT data from Yahoo.
The chart that stimulated your comments combined data from the US Federal Reserve and FTSE/NAREIT, and was derived from a series of spreadsheet calculations on that data. I doubt any ready free source is available that would directly give you the spread information in that chart.
If you want to use market data going forward and for short historical periods, it might be just as effective to follow one of the REIT ETFs that are based on an index such as:
VNQ
MSCI US REIT Index
RWR and IYR
The DJ Wilshire REIT index
FTY
FTSE NAREIT Real Estate 50 Index
FRI
S&P Composite REIT index Reply
A Closer Look at REIT-Treasury Yield Spreads (1971- Present) [view article]
Yields will shoot up, or ought to, we need to increase rates to take the speculation out of these commodities. Otherwise, we should all go long farming. ReplyA Closer Look at REIT-Treasury Yield Spreads (1971- Present) [view article]
Thanks, Rick. I was actually hoping for a symbol whose data I could download from, say, Yahoo finance. Yahoo lists a number of FTSE NAREIT symbols (see finance.yahoo.com/look...) and I am not sure which one is for Equity REIT yields. Is it ^FNER, or some other? ReplyA Closer Look at REIT-Treasury Yield Spreads (1971- Present) [view article]
cranky old investor (your handle and not my opinion)you are correct that the analysis is not forward looking, although it does state that if events deteriorate so will the investment opportunity. it also does not assert to be a comprehensive analysis and specifically states that more is to follow. "failure" is a bit harsh as a judgement, although you are correct that not all factors have been given full weight. the article analyzes one dimension only and the headline indicates that. if it were meant to be a full multi-dimensional analysis, it would have said so and would have been much longer. add what it provides to your own thoughts and other important dimensions to come up with your own decision, which you appear to have done. thanks for commenting. Reply
A Closer Look at REIT-Treasury Yield Spreads (1971- Present) [view article]
dumbo (your handle and not my opinion),you can find the REIT data athttp://nareit.com/library/ind... Reply
A Closer Look at REIT-Treasury Yield Spreads (1971- Present) [view article]
I like health care REITs at this point in time, despite the fact that they’re trading at a 22% premium vis-à-vis the 12% average equity REIT discount. With an average 5.3% yield that sure beats the 3.7% 10-year Treasury. As the boomers age demand will climb for seniors’ residences, assisted-living facilities and nursing homes. Of course there are risks. Uncle Sam may cut back on Medicare and Medicaid nursing home funding, especially if the Democrats are elected. States medical expenditures may also be slashed as states see more red ink going forward. Although the current economic downturn may already be priced into health care REIT NAVs, lessening the opportunity for cap gains, but as a relatively safe place to make an excellent yield they sure are appealing. ReplyA Closer Look at REIT-Treasury Yield Spreads (1971- Present) [view article]
Where can an individual (small) investor get the data for REIT yields in order to implement this strategy on their own? Is there, for example, an index for this, as there is for the Treasury yield? Replyinvestor
A Closer Look at REIT-Treasury Yield Spreads (1971- Present) [view article]
the failure of this analysis is that it looks at reits without looking at the future earning power of their underlying assets; many reit classes - retail, lodging, office - may suffer stagnation of retail revenues and an erosion of earnings in markets which are overbuilt. there are multiple trends which show, for example, that the retail real estate portfolio of the US economy exceeds the true demand for retail space by over 15 percent. Consolidation among retailers along with tied-to-sales rents can keep even the strongest mall operators from achieving any sort of growth; the 2nd tier will undoubtedly be forced to cut dividends as the coverage ratios move into danger zones.Betting on reits means betting on the health of the US economy when the real visibility is murky, at best. Reply
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General Discussion on FIO
Is this a buy or a sell? ReplyMorgan Stanley: Commercial Construction Is the Recession's Next Victim [view article]
Your exactly right in your analysis... as far as it goes. You did not mention that in 2007 L/V ratios expanded to 118% and that 59% of commercial loans were interest only, meaning they were financed with short term financing that must be refinanced (like much of the loans in the last couple of years) but refinanced at sharply higher rates as revealed by the interest rates paid in the auction market for high quality munis. This means that the higher mortgage payments will make many commercial investments unfeasible... leading to foreclosure of a lot of prime real estate of all types... possilby leading to fire sales. I suggest shorting REITs or SRS and gain from this mess that is sure to get worse in short order. ReplyGuy
Real Estate [REIT] ETFs [view article]
Does anyone have a view on RWX versus DRW? Reply