FIZZ - News and Analysis from Seeking Alpha 'FIZZ' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/fizz In Search of Value Stocks? Try Beverages and Healthcare http://seekingalpha.com/article/125270-in-search-of-value-stocks-try-beverages-and-healthcare?source=feed 125270 Value-oriented managers spend a lot of time trying to discern the true “dogs” – those stocks that may not benefit from the next cycle – from names that are simply out of favor but will rebound. What they are foremost trying to avoid is value traps – stocks that have experienced a large price declines and are mistaken to be value names.

In contrast with 2008, where quantitative strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC) saw value trap candidates triple as the market itself looked like a giant value trap, they see far more attractive value opportunities today.

]]> Wed, 11 Mar 2009 04:03:33 -0400 FP Trading Desk FP Trading DeskFP Trading Desk submits:

Value-oriented managers spend a lot of time trying to discern the true “dogs” – those stocks that may not benefit from the next cycle – from names that are simply out of favor but will rebound. What they are foremost trying to avoid is value traps – stocks that have experienced a large price declines and are mistaken to be value names.

In contrast with 2008, where quantitative strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC) saw value trap candidates triple as the market itself looked like a giant value trap, they see far more attractive value opportunities today.


Complete Story »]]> BBH BTK COT CSG FBT FIZZ HANS JSDA KO PBJ PEP FP Trading Desk Being Bearish When Stocks Are Rising http://seekingalpha.com/article/120467-being-bearish-when-stocks-are-rising?source=feed 120467 Market timing is a hot topic. We've seen how easily even a multi-year, or multi-decade, record of strong investment performance can be more than wiped out with a single big "miss." On the other hand, the difficulty of this task, coupled with the reputation it may have garnered due to overly outlandish claims made by some, has caused many to dismiss timing as something that can't really be done. In previous articles, I discussed the Portfolio123 timing model, explained how I use it in a regime-switching protocol, and explored what might happen if the model was erroneously bullish while stocks fell. Today, I consider the consequences of being bearish at a time when stocks are rising.

A realistic approach to timing error

]]> Fri, 13 Feb 2009 06:37:09 -0500 Marc Gerstein Market timing is a hot topic. We've seen how easily even a multi-year, or multi-decade, record of strong investment performance can be more than wiped out with a single big "miss." On the other hand, the difficulty of this task, coupled with the reputation it may have garnered due to overly outlandish claims made by some, has caused many to dismiss timing as something that can't really be done. In previous articles, I discussed the Portfolio123 timing model, explained how I use it in a regime-switching protocol, and explored what might happen if the model was erroneously bullish while stocks fell. Today, I consider the consequences of being bearish at a time when stocks are rising.

A realistic approach to timing error


Complete Story »]]> ABT BAX BCR CHD FIZZ FMS HAE LHCG MMSI SNN Marc Gerstein Exploiting Market Anomalies with Neglected Illiquid Stocks http://seekingalpha.com/article/117964-exploiting-market-anomalies-with-neglected-illiquid-stocks?source=feed 117964 The market continues to indiscriminately sell stocks. But in 2008, micro cap value took one of the biggest hits compared to other investment categories.

I occasionally like to remind myself of something Benjamin Graham said:

]]> Mon, 02 Feb 2009 10:46:27 -0500 John DiStanislao John DiStanislao submits:

The market continues to indiscriminately sell stocks. But in 2008, micro cap value took one of the biggest hits compared to other investment categories.

I occasionally like to remind myself of something Benjamin Graham said:


Complete Story »]]> ANIK ARKR DAIO FIZZ IPAS NATH PRCP PSEM WMCO John DiStanislao How Will Losing Wal-Mart Exclusivity Impact Cott Corp? http://seekingalpha.com/article/116960-how-will-losing-wal-mart-exclusivity-impact-cott-corp?source=feed 116960 Cott Corporation (COT) announced that Wal-Mart (WMT) has decided to terminate its existing 10-year old exclusive supply agreement for carbonated soft drinks. This action gives Wal-Mart the option to transition to other suppliers over time: up to one third of its requirements can be moved this year and up to two thirds can be moved next year.

While the ultimate outcome is unclear and discussions between Cott and Wal-Mart are reported to be ongoing, this is certainly not good news for Cott. Wal-Mart represents 35%-40% of Cott’s sales. If Wal-Mart were to move its business to other suppliers, Cott could have difficulty servicing its debt.

]]> Wed, 28 Jan 2009 06:02:46 -0500 John Appel John Appel submits:

Cott Corporation (COT) announced that Wal-Mart (WMT) has decided to terminate its existing 10-year old exclusive supply agreement for carbonated soft drinks. This action gives Wal-Mart the option to transition to other suppliers over time: up to one third of its requirements can be moved this year and up to two thirds can be moved next year.

While the ultimate outcome is unclear and discussions between Cott and Wal-Mart are reported to be ongoing, this is certainly not good news for Cott. Wal-Mart represents 35%-40% of Cott’s sales. If Wal-Mart were to move its business to other suppliers, Cott could have difficulty servicing its debt.


Complete Story »]]> COT DPS FIZZ WMT John Appel Recessionary Equity Strategies: Flight to Quality http://seekingalpha.com/article/101667-recessionary-equity-strategies-flight-to-quality?source=feed 101667 The phrase "flight to quality" is familiar in many contexts. In times of crises, many investors favor U.S. Treasuries, even though other kinds of fixed income might offer prospects for much greater return. When equity investors are nervous and when they aren't hiding under their beds (as many seem to be doing now), many run into shares of companies perceived to be safer. Many associate safety with large size and recognizable names. A better way to approach this is to emphasize quality-oriented fundamentals like strong finances, good returns on capital, and so forth.

Staying power

]]> Fri, 24 Oct 2008 03:45:41 -0400 Marc Gerstein The phrase "flight to quality" is familiar in many contexts. In times of crises, many investors favor U.S. Treasuries, even though other kinds of fixed income might offer prospects for much greater return. When equity investors are nervous and when they aren't hiding under their beds (as many seem to be doing now), many run into shares of companies perceived to be safer. Many associate safety with large size and recognizable names. A better way to approach this is to emphasize quality-oriented fundamentals like strong finances, good returns on capital, and so forth.

Staying power


Complete Story »]]> AOB ARDNA BCR CALM CBY DAR DIA DMND DTE EBF ECOL FE FIZZ FRX GILD GXP HANS ICUI JJSF LANC MGLN MMSI NTY NWL PGN PNW PTRY QQQQ SJI SLE SPY SVU TECH THOR UIL WEC WINN WSII WTR XTEX Marc Gerstein Cott Corp. Could Go Far, But Somebody Needs to Grab the Wheel http://seekingalpha.com/article/100204-cott-corp-could-go-far-but-somebody-needs-to-grab-the-wheel?source=feed 100204 Cott Corp. (COT) is the world’s largest supplier of retailer brand soft drinks, and the fourth largest nonalcoholic beverage maker.  Given the recent growth trends in private label, Cott should be doing well.  Unfortunately, in 2006, when faced with slowing growth and shrinking margins, instead of striving to become a better and more efficient producer, the company abandoned its historical business plan and entered the uncharted territory of enhanced waters and energy drinks - with its own brands.  This plan failed miserably: Cott alienated its core retail customers; healthy profits turned to losses; and debt mounted to the point that the company can barely service it.

In May 2006, Cott’s board pushed out its CEO, John Sheppard, who had built EBITDA to roughly $200 million through acquisitions and a focus on efficient manufacturing, and brought in a new CEO, Brent Willis, to execute the new plan.  From then until March 2008 when Willis departed, Cott’s stock dropped from $15 to $2 per share, wiping out nearly $1 billion of equity value.  Today, it trades at around $1.00 per share, less than tangible book value.  As I explain below, this could be an $8.00 stock if the company successfully implements its plan to cut costs and return to its roots.  But it is a long, long way from here to there.  If the company does not get capable leadership soon, it may never get there.

]]> Thu, 16 Oct 2008 07:55:39 -0400 John Appel John Appel submits:

Cott Corp. (COT) is the world’s largest supplier of retailer brand soft drinks, and the fourth largest nonalcoholic beverage maker.  Given the recent growth trends in private label, Cott should be doing well.  Unfortunately, in 2006, when faced with slowing growth and shrinking margins, instead of striving to become a better and more efficient producer, the company abandoned its historical business plan and entered the uncharted territory of enhanced waters and energy drinks - with its own brands.  This plan failed miserably: Cott alienated its core retail customers; healthy profits turned to losses; and debt mounted to the point that the company can barely service it.

In May 2006, Cott’s board pushed out its CEO, John Sheppard, who had built EBITDA to roughly $200 million through acquisitions and a focus on efficient manufacturing, and brought in a new CEO, Brent Willis, to execute the new plan.  From then until March 2008 when Willis departed, Cott’s stock dropped from $15 to $2 per share, wiping out nearly $1 billion of equity value.  Today, it trades at around $1.00 per share, less than tangible book value.  As I explain below, this could be an $8.00 stock if the company successfully implements its plan to cut costs and return to its roots.  But it is a long, long way from here to there.  If the company does not get capable leadership soon, it may never get there.


Complete Story »]]> COT DPS FIZZ John Appel